Mortgage Advice Bureau (... Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 12/9/2024 15:10

Three big buys... a short closing ?

[chapchip] 12/9/2024 14:25

we wont be far enough into H2 by 24/09 to be able to give meaningful guidance, although there is defo more activity than H1.....the drag of Euro's, Election, School Hols and rising rates is behind us

The CEO has big plans and wants to see it thru

[mammyoko] 12/9/2024 14:14

Could easily see a quick 10% upward move here if sentiment changes

[mammyoko] 12/9/2024 14:13

Yes, I think you're probably right on all counts.

The constant drip of small amounts at any price looks more like a shorter than an institution dumping. GLG are short at around 530p so maybe they are taking the opportunity of a backdrop of weakness and no buyers to try and drive the price back to that level?

[hnicholls3] 12/9/2024 14:04

Quite unusual price action. Must be the worst performing stock of the last month that hasn't released any earnings. I would buy lots more if it wasn't for the order book which looks quite ominous and suggests a couple of decent sellers.
Surely can't be reaction to the last update as that should have been priced in by now...my guess is it's general nervousness around UK plc due to upcoming budget. Couple of other names seem to be trading in a similar fashion. Again I'm hesitant to buy more as many have results soon and also I fear the market dynamic has changed since the August drop.

[mammyoko] 12/9/2024 13:44

Interims due 24th September

[mammyoko] 12/9/2024 13:29

They do also have a traditional H2 weighting to sales - albeit it was not so pronounced in 2023 which reflected the very weak Q4/23 advances market.

There's a backlog of people on expensive floaters that are looking to remortgage as rates come down. Rates are slowly starting to come down and the anticipation of how far they will do so in the next 12-18 months has probably changed to be less and slower which would encourage fixing.

Plus they are continuing to win market share and each gain in market share adds to the network effect.

There's definitely some unusual price activity going on here as down 34% in a month on an inline statement, albeit against a backdrop of Labour budget scare-mongering further destroying confidence and liquidity in UK small caps

[chapchip] 12/9/2024 13:16

when are the interims due ?

[74tom] 12/9/2024 13:12

Their previous record half year was H2 2022 with £134.3m revenue, they need £144.3m in H224 to meet expectations. Given that advisor numbers averaged 1898 in H1 vs 2254 at the end of 2022, I'd say they've got their work cut out.

[mammyoko] 12/9/2024 12:57

I agree the H2 sales weighting is a bit uncomfortable.

Against that, the latest mortgage date here



shows Q2 mortgage advances up 16% YoY. Obviously, those are already in the H1 sales results. But Q3 is traditionally a strong quarter with completions before the new school year starts.

Also, on 25th July Brodnicki said

The Group is trading in line with expectations, with a modest pick-up in activity expected in the second half.

and

We expect to deliver further growth in the remainder of this year as new ARs are recruited into MAB, and our ARs start growing adviser numbers again

Since that Trading Statement base rates have been cut and the ECB may have increased expectations of a further cut in the next two months.

I can't see 425p but wouldn't rule out 500.

[74tom] 12/9/2024 12:47

If you do the maths on H1 revenue vs full year forecasts it looks pretty likely they will have to warn at the interims, the main question being by how much & whether PBT & EPS are also downgraded. I see a retest of 425 as being a stretch, but £5 hit last September is a reasonable target. Of course they could surprise which would be amusing given the short games being played.

[sbb1x] 12/9/2024 12:23

Is it heading back to 52 week low 425...

[its the oxman] 12/9/2024 10:00

Time to buy then.

[mammyoko] 12/9/2024 09:22

Somebody definitely trying to push the price down here. Let's see if they can do it. Quality compounding business with potential for cyclical upswing as interest rates decline. Can't see the attraction of being short here.

[chapchip] 11/9/2024 15:24

dont think they ve finished yet

[mammyoko] 11/9/2024 08:34

Automated trades here trying to push the price down. GLG trying to get back onside with the 0.55% short taken out in July 2023?

Feel this has fallen too far here, so was a buyer at the 620p level, looking for a bounce back up to 750p. The property market is reportedly very active at the moment and with interest rates likely to be on a downward trend, the prospects for MAB1 in H2 and into 2025 look pretty good.

[chapchip] 12/12/2023 16:19

decent run since October up 50%

[74tom] 07/7/2023 10:53

Last update on 24th May said;

"MAB's performance, despite challenging market conditions, remains in line with the Board's expectations with further improvement expected in the second-half of the year."

If further improvement was expected to remain in line with market expectations, then given the developments in the last 10 weeks I'd say a profit warning is becoming increasingly likely here. Worth noting that this also still trading at ~16x FY23 forecast EPS of 34p which looks unsustainable in the current market.

[johnrxx99] 11/5/2023 09:54

On the up.

[74tom] 23/2/2023 11:24

Not so happy now though as that gap has just filled.

Probably due to articles like this encouraging shorters to return;



And also poor data like this

"Residential property transactions came to 77,390 in January on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, says HMRC.

This means transactions were 7% lower on an annual basis and, compared to December 2022, marks a 27% drop off.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, HMRC calculates there were 96,650 residential transactions in the first month of 2023 – an 11% annual drop and a monthly fall of 3%."

A frozen market would be a disaster for MAB1 as revenues would go into reverse and advisor numbers being significantly reduced. Will it happen?

[chapchip] 01/2/2023 16:09

£5.50 to £6.80...mr market seems to be happy

[74tom] 31/1/2023 09:17

What's everyone's take on the Fluent Money numbers disclosed today?

£22m contribution in the 2022 accounts, the acquisition completed on 12th July but the deal was announced on 28th March, so it's not immediately clear what period this relates to. However, this is what they said in the acquisition announcement last March;

"In the year to Mar-22E2, Fluent is expected to generate £38.5m revenue (+45% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA3 of £4.2m (+118% yoy)"

The footnote to this comment then says;

"2 Current accounting reference date of 31 March for Project Finland Topco Limited will be changed to 31 December post completion. In the financial year ending 2022 outturn based on 11 months actuals"


The comment regarding 11 months actuals suggests they agreed to include the financial performance of the last 2 months of FM's 2022 financial year which ended 31/03/22 (companies house), presumably because this reflected the date at which the acquisition was agreed in principal, but legals weren't signed off?

If my understanding of this is correct then today's figure of £22m is for 11 months contribution, which based on MAB1's 75% equity ownership suggests the 2022 outturn was £22m / 11 * 12 / 0.75 = £32m, significantly below the £38.5m forecast at the time of acquisition...

That would certainly make sense given the disastrous events of Q4.

Today's update seems to want readers to think that £22m has been recognised for FM performance since 12th July, which as per the extracts above is patently not the case... if so, it's pretty poor form IMO.

[its the oxman] 25/1/2023 10:29

Big falls here but so much bad news in the price now, and probably no meaningful recovery until anticipation interest cycle has turned. Hoping that can't be too far away now.

[chapchip] 05/12/2022 08:35

yes in light of recent events the £72m paid will possibly be slower to pay returns

the owners in fluent had lucky timing