Morson Share Discussion Threads

[weidnerworld] 04/3/2002 22:32

That's a serious recomendation Welshanalyst, see what tommorrow brings.

[welshanalyst] 03/3/2002 17:56

From February's Techinvest:-

'Merant continued aggressively with its share buyback programme during the month.
Having repurchased 2.379m shares in December, it bought back a further 9.394m up to Jan 15.
At that point the buyback programme was suspended, due to the closed period before results, which were on Feb 21 last year.
The total no of repurchases is 11.773m at an average price of 112.1p.
This is just past the half way mark, since Merant intends to buyback up to 20.2m in all.
Further returns of excess capital to shareholders , on completion of the buyback, have not yet been announced.
Also on Jan 15, five Directors purchased 34,305 shares between them.
Equityinvestigator ranks Merant as one of its top five buys in the technology sector.
Considering that it currently trades on a prospective enterprise value to sales ratio of around 0.4 for the year to 30 April 2003 (less than one tenth that of its largest US competitor, Rational), we concur with this view.
Strng hold, pending Q3 results and the resumption of the buyback programme.'

[welshanalyst] 16/2/2002 21:37

On 13th February, Equityinvestigator forecast £6.8m profit (5.5p eps) for 2003.

[welshanalyst] 30/1/2002 21:21

Extract from latest Techinvest (rest of article previously posted)

'Now that the two mature businesses have gone, most of the restructuring is complete.
With revenues stabilised in the remaining PVCS business and gross margins improving (now 78%, compared with 74% last year) profits will begin to benefit from any reduction in the cost base.
Following the interims, Equityinvestigator trimmed its forecasts for the three years ending April 2004, predicting a loss before tax of £1.2m for 2002 followed by a break back into profits of £6.8m and £11.7m. Corresponding eps are 1.0p, 5.3p and 9.1p. If cash reserves are stripped out, allowing say $20m for restructuring charges, forward PE ratios to April 2003/4 are around 7.2 and 4.3. The results were received positively by the market, which pushed the shares to a four month high . Strong hold.'

[mog] 28/1/2002 09:25

weidenerworld, the closed period goes up until the results are published

[weidnerworld] 27/1/2002 03:16

Thanks johnv, maybe I didn't phrase that very well. The RNS on the 11th Jan stated the the share buy-back would suspended for the closed period - from 15th Jan until the end of the 3rd quater, 31 Jan.
Although the results aren't published until 21/2/2002, will they start the buy on the 1 Feb or when the results are published?

[weidnerworld] 25/1/2002 10:04

Do the co's results to 31st Jan get published on the 1st Feb and does that enable the co to re-start the share buy-back 1st Feb.
Thanks

[mog] 25/1/2002 09:59

I think it's actually 'humble' rather than 'honest'

see the following link for a rather comprehensive list of acronyms, might be a bit difficult to remember all of them!

[welshanalyst] 24/1/2002 20:31

in my honest opinion.

[dopeyclown] 24/1/2002 11:31

what does imho stands for?

[mog] 17/1/2002 17:33

weidnerworld

I can understand your scepticism after this share's past history, but if the results are bad then these directors' purchases won't make any difference to the market reaction, the market will just think what a bunch of ignorant twits. However I'm sure you're right the timing was planned to coincide with the suspension of the company buying shares to keep confidence up until the results.

[weidnerworld] 17/1/2002 08:06

Webley

the one thought that had crossed my mind was results that are much poorer than expected - I guess that I'm just as battered by the last year and a half as many other share holders and have become suspicious of all compnay announcements.

[webley] 16/1/2002 10:35

I read the dropping of the bid positively during the closed period. IMHO mms do not want stock that they will have to sit on awaiting the time when the coy can restart the buy back.

Also, I read the massive coy buying on the slight drop just prior to the close period as positive. They are not expecting to buy as cheaply after results are published.

weidnerworld - Agree the non-exec buying could look contrived, and hardly big bucks. However, if this buying, and the 11m share buy back at upto 115p, is "to bolster confidence for any other reason" then what is it designed to achieve? Now that the share buyback has been temporarily halted due to the close period there is not going to be much trading. The results, when published, will then provide all the evidence people need of which way it is going to go.

I am holding pending results.

Or have I got it wrong?

[weidnerworld] 16/1/2002 09:44

Agree with you mog but it does appear to be a concerted effort and seems very obvious, or is it to bolster confidence for any other reason, although they have done what they said about the share buy-back and kept the information flowing.
Anyone know any more about this co's prospects?

[mog] 16/1/2002 09:33

The 5 non-exec's have each bought £8k of shares at £1.12, not a scintillating amount but if they expected poor results they would have waited till after the results, so I'd have thought they are expecting reasonable results which is reassuring, and then there are another 8m shares to be bought back as well which should start the price going up again after the results.

[tech] 14/1/2002 00:38

4.98M bought back to date

[a.fewbob] 13/1/2002 23:26

and then Hector would get his cut too, whoopee!

[welshanalyst] 13/1/2002 18:04

Thanks, Tech.
Even if they do not spend the rest on buybacks, presumably they could return cash by way of a dividend.

[a.fewbob] 13/1/2002 12:12

I agree,

buying stock now would be lke insider trading.

[welshanalyst] 13/1/2002 11:48

According to Techinvest, they intend to buyback 20.2m shares, and the total so far is still well short of this figure, so more to come.
Anybody counting?

[welshanalyst] 12/1/2002 13:51

The suspension is surely not a real problem.
The buybacks will just recommence after the results.

[mulligatawny] 11/1/2002 23:19

Suspension on the buyback ...bad money management,just as they were picking up.

[tech] 11/1/2002 21:48

How many million did they buy back today.