Morrison (wm) Supermarkets Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 18/9/2019 11:17

The difference is, this is just Aldi UK, which can afford to take on lower profits in order to take more market share from the other UK supermarkets while being supported by the rest of the Aldi group.

[muffinhead] 18/9/2019 11:04

And Aldi see profits drop 26% to £198 million on turnover of ? £10 billion hTtps://news.sky.com/story/aldi-suffers-26-profit-drop-but-promises-growth-11811434 Methinks Morrisons has a better mousetrap

[muffinhead] 18/9/2019 10:59

Found this intriguing in H1 results >> Financial targets update -- On track for GBP1bn annualised wholesale supply sales target -- Further GBP7m incremental profit from wholesale, services, interest and online, taking the total so far to GBP61m. On track for our GBP75m-GBP125m target >>> Even if Morrisons just hits the the low end of range, £75 million profit on £1 billion wholesale, the profit margin is.... drum roll.... 7.5%

[loganair] 18/9/2019 10:49

It seems to me both Morrison's and Asda have a plan going forward whereas sadly Sainsbury's seem not to have plan rather they seem to be still trying to live off what they were in the past. Tesco's seem to be fine with just plodding a long, losing around another 1% plus in market share to Aldi/Lidl over the next 5 years, bringing them down to 26% or a little under. Kantar's fingers are incorrect as they do not included the 3.3% market share of M&S food. If one includes M&S then Tesco's market share falls by around 0.5% and for some reason Morrison's by 0.6% from those given by Kantar.

[muffinhead] 18/9/2019 10:38

Gets an update mention with Telegraph Questor "Cash flow is strong and the divis make Morrisons a solid income option" hTtps://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-yes-no-deal-brexit-could-knock-grafton-worries-price/

[muffinhead] 18/9/2019 10:32

Mentioned in H1 release.... there was no net increase in physical store openings over last 12 months and management seems to be focused on store cash generation. However there is a lot going on under the hood New export partner LuLu in the Middle East hTtps://www.lulugroupinternational.com/business-sectors/retail-business/ Further convenience store trial formats with Rontec hTtp://rontec-servicestations.co.uk/ Expansion of the Morrisons store on Amazon Prime Now Also...Multi-year partnership signed with Amazon New forecourt partner Harvest Energy hTtps://harvestenergy.com/harvest-energy-sites-location-map/ Trial conversion of ten McColl's stores to Morrisons Daily Aldi is going to find expansion and generation of profits inside the M25 a lot harder imo. The easy growth outside the M25 must be slowing down hTtps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49692086

[loganair] 18/9/2019 10:27

Looking forward 5 years I can see Aldi's market share being around 10.5%, Morrison 8.5% and Lidl 7%. Aldi said it would step up the pressure on rivals by increasing store numbers in London from 45 to 100 by the end of 2025. Aldi are also aiming to have 250 stores within the M25 area by 2025. How many supermarkets does Morrison's have in the London and within the M25 area?

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 09:59

Not holding atm, it's on a watchlist for me, thought near to £1.80 it may be worth a look?. loganair, you are making an assumption they want to return to that sector through store ownership. You might be right, or their focus may just be on wholesale supply agreements, without the extra 'risks' of ownership.

[loganair] 18/9/2019 09:53

Any other suggestions of how Morrison's may get back into the convenience store market without to much head ache and without paying too high a price? Within less then 2 years Aldi will over take Morrison's market share which is likely to have fallen to around 9% by that time.

[muffinhead] 18/9/2019 09:48

Seem to remember opening price on H1 day... must be buyers remorse

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 09:39

I'm guessing you hold McColls and would like a MRW bid! ).

[loganair] 18/9/2019 09:25

Morrison's lost a shed load of money as many of their convenience stores were ex-block buster stores which were in the wrong places, too small and with onerous leases which even after getting out of these stores Morrison's were left on the hook for. Where as over the past 4 years McColl's have been closing their newsagents and smaller unprofitable stores as their leases come up for renewal while buying larger profitable convenience stores.

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 09:04

MRW lost a shed load of money in that sector previously. Tesco are cutting staff and opening hours in their convenience outlets, online is increasingly eating in to that segment. I don't see the attraction myself, but let's see.

[loganair] 18/9/2019 08:50

Morrison's are already trialing Morrison Daily convenience stores with McColl's Not really about extra space, more about getting back into the convenience store sector at not too much expense.

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 07:48

With their increasing business with Amazon I'm not sure they will go down that route. They are closing 4 supermarkets, so the focus looks on profitability not space.

[loganair] 17/9/2019 13:45

When McColl's have closed most of their loss making newsagents and smaller stores, maybe a good idea for Morrison's to buy them out. McColl's have around 4% market share of the convenience store sector.

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 13:41

Yes I looked at their 12 months market share drop and referenced it recently as a reason to be a little cautious. MRW are not just a retailer, they are in the top 5 (from memory) food producers in the UK, plus the growing wholesale division. So it's perhaps a little easy to underestimate the complete business, however I would certainly not be gung ho on prospects.

[loganair] 17/9/2019 13:14

Morrison's market share has dropped from 10.6% to 9.9% in just 15 months. I would think with in another 15 months Morrison's market share will be approaching 9%.

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 13:11

I don't really see that as an issue, if MRW can hold their market share around 10%.

[loganair] 17/9/2019 13:08

Supermarket market share - note Kantar excludes M&S who have around 3.3% of the grocery market share so in reality the market share of the supermarkets is lower then that given by Kantar: ...........June 2018..June 2019..Sept 2019 Tesco........27.7%......27.3%......26.9% Sainsburys...15.6%......15.3%......15.3% Asda.........15.1%......14.9%......15.1% Morrison.....10.6%......10.4%.......9.9% Aldi..........7.4%.......7.9%.......8.1% Co-op.........6.1%.......6.2%.......6.6% Lidl..........5.4%.......5.7%.......6.0% Waitrose......5.1%.......5.0%.......5.0% Iceland.......2.2%.......2.1%.......2.1% Ocado.........1.2%.......1.4%.......1.4% Out of the so called big 4, Asda seems to be holding up the best. Pound for pound turnover they are 50% plus more profitable than Sainsbury's. 15 months ago Morrison had 3.2% more market share than Aldi, this is not down to 1.8%. If the shrinking differential carries on at the same rate then in less then 2 years Aldi with over take Morrison in market share.

[williamcooper104] 17/9/2019 13:06

It's certainly material It's easy to work out what a £1bn is to market cap The harder thing to get a feel for how much of the damage is priced into the current sp

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 13:00

Aldi to open 1 UK supermarket a week for the next 2 years.

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 12:57

It's more than a remote risk, it's a material risk imv. Although I would doubt anything like 60 pence off the SP, that would be a gift.

[williamcooper104] 16/9/2019 17:51

It's not new news But it's not a remote risk

[justiceforthemany] 16/9/2019 17:27

This is all old news. No new developments. Nothing will come of it.