Morrison (wm) Supermarkets Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 10:59

Not holding atm, it's on a watchlist for me, thought near to £1.80 it may be worth a look?. loganair, you are making an assumption they want to return to that sector through store ownership. You might be right, or their focus may just be on wholesale supply agreements, without the extra 'risks' of ownership.

[loganair] 18/9/2019 10:53

Any other suggestions of how Morrison's may get back into the convenience store market without to much head ache and without paying too high a price? Within less then 2 years Aldi will over take Morrison's market share which is likely to have fallen to around 9% by that time.

[muffinhead] 18/9/2019 10:48

Seem to remember opening price on H1 day... must be buyers remorse

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 10:39

I'm guessing you hold McColls and would like a MRW bid! ).

[loganair] 18/9/2019 10:25

Morrison's lost a shed load of money as many of their convenience stores were ex-block buster stores which were in the wrong places, too small and with onerous leases which even after getting out of these stores Morrison's were left on the hook for. Where as over the past 4 years McColl's have been closing their newsagents and smaller unprofitable stores as their leases come up for renewal while buying larger profitable convenience stores.

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 10:04

MRW lost a shed load of money in that sector previously. Tesco are cutting staff and opening hours in their convenience outlets, online is increasingly eating in to that segment. I don't see the attraction myself, but let's see.

[loganair] 18/9/2019 09:50

Morrison's are already trialing Morrison Daily convenience stores with McColl's Not really about extra space, more about getting back into the convenience store sector at not too much expense.

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2019 08:48

With their increasing business with Amazon I'm not sure they will go down that route. They are closing 4 supermarkets, so the focus looks on profitability not space.

[loganair] 17/9/2019 14:45

When McColl's have closed most of their loss making newsagents and smaller stores, maybe a good idea for Morrison's to buy them out. McColl's have around 4% market share of the convenience store sector.

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 14:41

Yes I looked at their 12 months market share drop and referenced it recently as a reason to be a little cautious. MRW are not just a retailer, they are in the top 5 (from memory) food producers in the UK, plus the growing wholesale division. So it's perhaps a little easy to underestimate the complete business, however I would certainly not be gung ho on prospects.

[loganair] 17/9/2019 14:14

Morrison's market share has dropped from 10.6% to 9.9% in just 15 months. I would think with in another 15 months Morrison's market share will be approaching 9%.

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 14:11

I don't really see that as an issue, if MRW can hold their market share around 10%.

[loganair] 17/9/2019 14:08

Supermarket market share - note Kantar excludes M&S who have around 3.3% of the grocery market share so in reality the market share of the supermarkets is lower then that given by Kantar: ...........June 2018..June 2019..Sept 2019 Tesco........27.7%......27.3%......26.9% Sainsburys...15.6%......15.3%......15.3% Asda.........15.1%......14.9%......15.1% Morrison.....10.6%......10.4%.......9.9% Aldi..........7.4%.......7.9%.......8.1% Co-op.........6.1%.......6.2%.......6.6% Lidl..........5.4%.......5.7%.......6.0% Waitrose......5.1%.......5.0%.......5.0% Iceland.......2.2%.......2.1%.......2.1% Ocado.........1.2%.......1.4%.......1.4% Out of the so called big 4, Asda seems to be holding up the best. Pound for pound turnover they are 50% plus more profitable than Sainsbury's. 15 months ago Morrison had 3.2% more market share than Aldi, this is not down to 1.8%. If the shrinking differential carries on at the same rate then in less then 2 years Aldi with over take Morrison in market share.

[williamcooper104] 17/9/2019 14:06

It's certainly material It's easy to work out what a £1bn is to market cap The harder thing to get a feel for how much of the damage is priced into the current sp

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 14:00

Aldi to open 1 UK supermarket a week for the next 2 years.

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 13:57

It's more than a remote risk, it's a material risk imv. Although I would doubt anything like 60 pence off the SP, that would be a gift.

[williamcooper104] 16/9/2019 18:51

It's not new news But it's not a remote risk

[justiceforthemany] 16/9/2019 18:27

This is all old news. No new developments. Nothing will come of it.

[scotches] 16/9/2019 17:07

The pay is already equal. If women want to take the warehouse jobs they will be paid the same as a man. hTTps://www.indeed.co.uk/cmp/Morrisons-Warehouse/reviews The judgement seems perverse that they are able to judge that two different skill jobs should be paid exactly the same. Isn't that the job of the market to determine what people are paid and currently the market indicates that the ladies don't seem to want the 6am starts in a cold warehouse with heavy work (despite the current higher pay).

[kazoom] 16/9/2019 14:48

Interesting thoughts on the Equal Pay case! All guesswork on the share price impact I think, but : 2.3Bn shares in issue would imply a one-off £1bn ought to be c. 40p /share. Plus a further drop because the balance sheet would then look much more strained. Less the extent to which the risk of this is "already in the price". I would probably then agree with both of you 20p-60p! (It's a bit painful sitting on this fence!)

[williamcooper104] 16/9/2019 14:21

Mine would be more like 30-60p (agree that it might not be as much as £1bn but it could actually be more and initially markets likely to overshoot on a bad judgment) Agree not likely to be immediately payable but doubt it can be spun out for years and years If it's close to £1bn the balance sheet would appear to be able to bear it but to create liquidity for future investment MRW would need to raise capital - probably via sale and leasebacks - which would raise leverage and the risk profile of the stock - which could further impact upon the share price If amazon are really going to buy then you would have thought that when a bad judgement was fully priced into the share price would be the time to strike

[essentialinvestor] 16/9/2019 14:08

The court case has been flagged up here previously and to be fair it remains a material risk. Whether the sum would in practical terms amount to £1 billion is debatable, and would doubt that would need to be paid immediately. In terms of the impact on the MRW SP, that's guesswork, a range of 20 -25 pence would be my guessestimate.

[leedslad001] 15/9/2019 13:35

Love the desperate shorters lol

[cautious7] 15/9/2019 12:46

Hi When will Morrisons be making their court appearance? One billion pound cost, if this happens will the share price go below 1 pound? DYOR C7