Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[stef25] 25/11/2020 07:03

new posting here and appreciate checking and pushback on my assumptions.

I've been looking at revenues per GROW share of the underlying core portfolio compared to Nav/share of Grow and the related multiple of revenue per share to create NAV.

there was a steady increase in the multiple of total core revenue per share to create total core nav per share from 3.0, then 4.0 then 5.0 in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Mostly due to an increase in recent transactions to aid valuation. Then in 2020 a retrace to 4.1 core portfolio revenue per share to total GROW nav per share relationship due to a substantial decrease in recent transactions to aid valuation plus some covid era adjustments downwards in projections of forward earnings.

My take on that is we have a bit of gas in the tank.

I am at essence a deep value investor due to my ISA holding. I believe the trust structure undervalues the core holding relative to the accounting that would happen if they were recorded as joint ventures over the 20% ownership threshold that trigger profits and losses being recorded directly in the parent and not just the delta in lagging and bureaucratically calculated valuations that we get as a trust. Even recent transaction based valuations lag reality and are conservative as they are not retail investors.

profit and loss of the core portfolio if reported directly at the level of GROW would create an ability to directly compare the GROW portfolio to traded companies in the sector.

The P/E would be 7.1 right now (based on revenue as reported in March 31 2020 on shares in circulate of 139m and % of revenue being profit of .67) if profits within the core portfolio were reported directly and not just changes in nav.

Following the strategy laid out on page 14 of the 2017 results I can't believe my good luck I can buy those UK/EU private fast growing tech companies at an equivalent P/E of only 7.1. I think it is a temporary niche in the market that over time will level out to sector averages.

good luck all.

[mysteronz] 14/11/2020 19:26

Appreciate the NAV comment but in my view this should trade at a premium. The NAV looks back not forward, you can expect 20% NAV uplift a year so should factor that in, a bit like an EPS uptick each year

[p1nkfish] 13/11/2020 23:49

It had a tip in Nanalyze but also highlighted premium to NAV that makes it look a little rich in valuation.

[steeplejack] 30/10/2020 09:23

Berenberg reiterate buy recommendation and up target to £7 from 690p

[dogwalker] 29/10/2020 08:27

A very encouraging update this morning.

[p1nkfish] 28/10/2020 10:55

Hope not. I looked at the chart and sold out as there were multiple attempts at the recent high and latest attempt looked insipid on the volume front.

If it goes below placing by a decent degree I will look to rejoin.

Right now anything could happen including another massive sell-off before April 2021. Possibly taken down by USA stumbling leading to some panic or other.

Love this portfolio but could see big volatility.

[steeplejack] 28/10/2020 09:29

Back to the placing price of 555p.It'll interesting to see in this shaky market if that price holds.

[p1nkfish] 02/10/2020 07:29

Have to see. Some weakness wouldn't be totally unexpected in the next few months. Personally, watch & wait again. Good luck everyone.

[mysteronz] 02/10/2020 06:57

Great move, more firepower supportive of old NAV so given recent uplifts a bit of a discount. Price should go higher today tempered by Trump news

[rambutan2] 01/10/2020 22:01

No complaints from me:

Proposed placing to raise gross proceeds of approximately GBP100 million

Accelerated investment strategy to capture a greater share of technology investment opportunities

Introduction

Draper Esprit (AIM: GROW, Euronext Growth: GRW), a leading venture capital firm investing in some of Europe's fastest growing private technology companies, is pleased to announce a proposed Placing to raise gross proceeds of approximately GBP100 million at a placing price of 555 pence per Placing Share (the "Placing Price") to fund an accelerated investment strategy and capture a greater share of technology investment opportunities. The Placing Price is equal to the last reported NAV as at 31 March 2020.

The Placing Shares are being offered by way of an accelerated bookbuild (the "Bookbuild"), which will be launched immediately following this announcement. Numis and Goodbody are acting as Joint Global Co-ordinators, Joint Bookrunners and Joint Corporate Brokers and Berenberg is acting as Joint Bookrunner in connection with the Bookbuild.

[brexitplus] 23/9/2020 14:34

GRAPHCORE ANNOUNCEMENT. MORE ON THEIR WEBSITE

We’re delighted to announce the launch of the Graphcore Elite Partner Program; a global network of channel partners, serving our customers around the world.

Graphcore’s IPU systems are already accelerating machine intelligence and delivering a competitive advantage in financial services, healthcare, consumer internet, academic research and many other fields.

Those real-world results, along with outstanding performance benchmarks, are driving international demand for Graphcore’s transformative technologies.

The Graphcore Elite Partner Program includes many of the world’s best-known channel partners, technology distributors and resellers, who will support us in bringing to market our latest IPU-Machine M2000 systems.

Our launch partners are:

2CRSi, Atos, Boston Limited, BSI, Dell Technologies, Digital China, Inspur, Lambda, Macnica/Cytech, Meadowgate Technologies, Megazone, OCF, Penguin Computing, Tech Data Europe, Tech Data US and Wildflower International.

Additional partners will be added on an ongoing basis.

[sirrux] 16/9/2020 13:20

Will be interesting to see how Snowflake trades today for the unicorn stable prospects here, maybe they should look into a US listing at some point.

[brexitplus] 01/9/2020 07:31

Forward share sale of Zynga Inc ("Zynga") stock



Draper Esprit (LSE: GROW, Euronext Growth: GRW), a leading venture capital firm investing in and developing high growth digital technology businesses, today announces the forward share sale of its stock in Zynga, a global leader in interactive entertainment, for approximately £47 million in cash.



In July, Zynga completed its acquisition of Draper Esprit portfolio company Peak Games, the Istanbul-based creator of Toon Blast and Toy Blast, paying for all of the issued and outstanding common shares in approximately equal proportions of cash and Zynga common stock.



As previously announced the anticipated fair value of the Peak Games sale is approximately £88 million and the Company received the initial cash proceeds (net of escrow balances) of approximately £39 million in July. As a result of the forward share sale, which was undertaken with a global investment bank, Draper Esprit will receive approximately £44 million of the value of the share consideration in cash in the coming week. The remaining portion is anticipated to be released at the end of the original lock-up period in January 2021.



Net cash balances (net of £35 million current drawn debt) upon receipt of these funds will be approximately £60 million.

[p1nkfish] 01/9/2020 07:17

Increase in fire power towards £60M ahead of expected timelines. Guess they must have target investments in mind.

[rambutan2] 30/7/2020 20:36

From today:

Jefferies International today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Draper Esprit Plc (LON:GROW) and raised its price target to 683p (from 617p).

[steeplejack] 29/7/2020 08:24

Bon voyage TransferWise.Very good company.Used them often,

[p1nkfish] 21/7/2020 15:15

Depends on the float price. There is a price that could be too high.

[mysteronz] 21/7/2020 15:00

Agree the UK stock market is awful for tech at the moment, when some of these IPO they will be quite exciting. Usually GROW would divest at the point of IPO but as you say they will multiply beforehand anyway.

I cant wait for Graphcore to IPO, def be buying that when it does

[sirrux] 21/7/2020 11:06

Looking through the portfolio, I can see lots of potential. It's like a bag of seeds in very fertile ground. The UK stock market needs a whole injection of a new breed of businesses - it's gone nowhere for 20 years and now the dividends are drying up. I know some of the names are waiting for the big multi-billion IPO opportunities so they can be global players but why not let a few single billions first and build from that. Cazoo (for cars) looks interesting, ex Zoopla guy leading that.

[cordwainer] 15/7/2020 17:15

Commentary on Graphcore at the end of this piece:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53418900

I agree with the overall sentiment there, could either accelerate or hinder Draper Esprit's exit.. I don't know.

[brexitplus] 15/7/2020 09:12

Fantastic new releases/products announced by Graphcore with accompanying video.

hxxps://www.graphcore.ai/

[rambutan2] 06/7/2020 20:05

Armor Cap (see post 181, link below) upped stake by 1.16m to take it to 6,165,514 (5%):

[mysteronz] 06/7/2020 14:04

Another £4.5m for Draper Esprit If the values are to be believed based on value of the holdings recently releaseD

hxxps://news.sky.com/story/transferwise-hits-4bn-valuation-as-employees-cash-out-12022305

[cordwainer] 03/7/2020 08:10

... yes, we know :-)