Molins Share Discussion Threads

[cjohn] 15/6/2017 11:04

Why would it make 3 million a year? And why would that make it worth 30 million. PE of 10 in such a commoditised business as packaging? And won't much of the cash be needed for capital investment? There's no dividend, after all. I'm a holder, btw.

[teela brown] 13/6/2017 15:51

Cheers Tiger.

[castleford tiger] 13/6/2017 15:26

IT is backed by after the sale a company making 3.00 million a year worth 30 million. There is also 20 odd million cash. total value 50 million or 2.50 a share Tiger

[teela brown] 13/6/2017 13:18

Whites123 Your "conservative" target of £2.50 looks quite bullish to me. Is it wishful thinking or do you have some supporting figures? I've got my fingers crossed!

[jay083] 13/6/2017 12:11

had this on my watchlist for some time, and think this is now a much better prospect at this price with the sale than it was before. NET cash post completion is estimated to be £25.4m or £1.26 / share....plus what the remaining business is worth.... on the basis that at year end net assets were £1.76 (including intangibles) and the business they have sold was at book value that is probably a fair target in the short / medium term. ...after that it will be down to how wisely they use the cash and translate the growth into profitability. also worth noting that they are approved to buy back upto 15% of the stock....might be a decent use of some of the money in the sort run if price is around these levels

[whites123] 13/6/2017 11:25

A 10% increase based on total share trades of just £71k When the cash position of the company after the sale will warrant an share price of £1.30 alone. Effectively its worth maybe having a slight giggle at the position? It sure as heck doesnt make much sense. Almost akin to shouting £5 notes for sale, £5 notes for sale, just £2 each... And people not wanting them... :-) (Assuming of course you agree with my conservative target of £2.50 per share)

[castleford tiger] 08/6/2017 13:24

Simon Have to agree that the shares currently about 1.00 giving market cap of 20m are far too cheap. The whole operation is in the pot for nothing as net cash will be over 20 million tiger

[rhomboid] 08/6/2017 12:47

I've bought a slice this morning as I think the penny hasn't dropped yet as to how clever this deal is, obviously the pension trustees are backing mgt to scale up the consumer packaging biz rather than strong arming them over the sale proceeds. After today's rise the remaining business is valued at sub zero even though it's on a fast turnaround track even given its newly increased central overhead allocation. I know the pension scheme is humungous compared to the business but that may yet turn into an asset rather than a sheet anchor on the share price.

[simon cawkwell] 08/6/2017 12:38

Gentlemen, I have just spoken to David Cowen, the FD, and he gently draws my attention to the fact that the goodwill disposed comes to £7.8m. Well, that is even better than I thought and makes the shares very cheap here - although I accept that it will take a day or two for that to be proved. My target price for this year is 150p since I am pretty sure that MLIN will now start to sprint. Simon Cawkwell

[simon cawkwell] 08/6/2017 11:45

Gentlemen, I think I am right in commenting that the goodwill in the balance sheet sold today is not identified. But since I always write off goodwill any sort of recovery is a bonus. My guess is that MLIN has reached a blast off moment. After all, the pension fund is well under control and tangible net assets are probably well above the current share price. And the CEO's comments on prospects are very strong. It's hard to see why this stock should sit below 125p. I paid 102p this morning - there just was no stock at the time. Simon Cawkwell

[walbrock82] 08/6/2017 10:32

Didn’t expect Molins to pull off this disposal, but what did we expect when the shares have been undervalued for so long! The last time I posted, I said the company needed to invest in their ageing assets. Now, they won’t need to invest as much. Instead, they will have a lot more cash at hand. Before the disposal, Molin's enterprise value was £18m, now it is 25% higher! Let’s say they invest £8m, that would leave them with £28m-£30m in the bank. Regarding, their pension schemes, shouldn’t the deficit come down if interest rate or UK Gilts and US Bonds start to rise? Well, that depends on what’s in the composition of Molin's pension assets. For those who haven’t read my March post, here is a reminder link: http://bit.ly/2mwmyrh Oh, BTW, with this disposal, I expect the shares to trade around £1.20 per share or higher, giving a market value of £25m. Think about it, if their Tobacco division has similar fundamentals to their packaging division, shouldn’t that be worth at least £20m in a liquidation! But, I need to do further research, before coming to a full conclusion.

[spob] 08/6/2017 09:20

Pension schemes (taken from the final results) The Group is responsible for defined benefit pension schemes in the UK and the USA, in which there are no active members. The Company is responsible for the payment of a statutory levy to the Pension Protection Fund. The quantum of this levy is dependent on a number of factors, including a specific method of calculating a pension deficit for this purpose and a credit assessment of the Company, the methodology for which is also specific for this purpose. These schemes are accounted for in accordance with IAS 19 Employee benefits. The IAS 19 valuation of the UK scheme's assets and liabilities was undertaken as at 31 December 2016 and was based on the information used for the funding valuation work that is currently being carried out as at 30 June 2015, updated to reflect both conditions at the 2016 year end and the specific requirements of IAS 19. The smaller USA defined benefit schemes were valued as at 31 December 2016, using actuarial data as of 1 January 2016, updated for conditions existing at the year end. Under IAS 19 the Group has elected to recognise all actuarial gains and losses outside of the income statement. The IAS 19 valuation of the UK scheme resulted in a net surplus at the end of the year of GBP4.6m (2015: GBP10.6m). The value of the scheme's assets at 31 December 2016 was GBP401.9m (2015: GBP346.9m) and the value of the scheme's liabilities was GBP397.3m (2015: GBP336.3m). The main cause of the increase in the valuation of the liabilities in the UK scheme was the decrease in the discount rate, reflecting lower interest rates at the year end compared with twelve months previously. The scheme's assets have benefited from strong returns in the year which has partially offset the increase in the scheme's obligations. The accounting valuations of the USA pension schemes showed an aggregated net deficit of GBP6.8m (2015: GBP6.6m) with total assets of GBP17.1m (2015: GBP14.9m). The UK scheme is subject to a formal triennial actuarial valuation as at 30 June 2015, which is expected to be completed in the next few months. The last completed scheme specific funding valuation of the Group's UK defined benefit scheme, which was carried out as at 30 June 2012, showed a funding level of 86% of liabilities, which represented a deficit of GBP53.0m. The solvency position of the scheme at that date, which reflects the scheme's position if it was wound up, showed a funding level of 56%. Valuations are extremely sensitive to a number of factors outside the control of the Group, including discount rates. The level of deficit funding is currently GBP1.8m per annum, increasing by 2.1% per annum with an estimated recovery period of 17 years from 30 June 2012. The deficit recovery plan will be reassessed as part of the 30 June 2015 actuarial valuation, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2017. The aggregate cost of administering the defined benefit schemes charged to operating profit was GBP0.9m (2015: GBP0.9m). As reported in note 4, net financing income in respect of the schemes was GBP0.1m (2015: GBP0.7m expense). During the year the Company made payments to the UK defined benefit scheme of GBP1.8m (2015: GBP1.8m) in respect of the deficit recovery plan. Payments of GBP0.2m (2015: GBP0.1m) were made to the USA schemes in the year.

[spob] 08/6/2017 09:13

i traded in and out this morning eventually managed to buy at 92 ish and sold just below 102

[spob] 08/6/2017 09:11

update coming end of this month i mean there is a valuation the update will come some time after that

[spooky] 08/6/2017 09:02

Does anyone want to talk me through the pension fund situation. I know what my thoughts are but that's not a lot of use if other investors have a different take.

[spob] 08/6/2017 07:10

yeah and can't buy any stock

[castleford tiger] 08/6/2017 07:09

looks a cracking deal and shares up[ 10p tiger

[spob] 08/6/2017 06:30

Http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=74953489

[meijiman] 20/5/2017 10:37

The share of the living dead.........

[cjohn] 12/4/2017 09:50

Hi Walbrock, thanks for the link. I'll bear this in mind.

[coolen] 04/4/2017 10:26

Re Mr Ourey. Visit "Companies House" website. Search for "Welsh Industrial Investment Trust". View the accounts for year ending 5th April 2004. The narrative may be of interest, re Molins. ("WIIT" was part of the old Gresham House stable).

[mobtheplod] 04/4/2017 10:03

Mr & Mrs Ourey (The Thames Corporation Limited)now have over 5%.

[meijiman] 30/3/2017 13:43

Molins were presenting last night somewhere so maybe the message has gone down well with someone. With the new management this might have a future.

[walbrock82] 23/3/2017 23:46

CJohn Sorry for the late reply. Yes, the age of the factory, machinery and equipment. Just click this link to Investopedia: hxxp://www.investopedia.com/exam-guide/cfa-level-1/assets/fixed-asset-disclosures.asp All the info. is on the page.

[cjohn] 20/3/2017 12:26

Hi Walbrock, I admit I'm not sure what you mean about the age of the assets: are you referring to the age of a Factory or machines? Is this an average figure? How would you calculate it? Could you explain more?