Mitchells & Butlers Share Discussion Threads

[netcurtains] 08/11/2020 08:15

buywell3: Try one of the Wotton Dirty Burgers when they are back open.
They are great (place is very busy - most of their pubs have lots of room and big gardens.
People go for the good quality meals...

It has a turnover twice that of Wetherspoons but a market cap of only half wetherspoons.
Come on MAB is a RELATIVE bargain.

[buywell3] 08/11/2020 08:06

Supermarkets do free home deliveries in a lockdown

Cheap beer delivered free to your door = no driving and no covid-19 risk from strangers in pubs

Covid cases surging just about everywhere now

And look set to continue till spring
boris is now stuck with trying to keep a functioning NHS which has around 30,000 staff off sick and things are getting worse since this

htTs://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-patient-safety-nurses-nhs-staff-sick-absence-b1454999.html

buywell predicts the current lockdown will last for over 2 months

see BUY thread

Chart 100p retest likely before Jan 1st 2021 imo


dyor

[netcurtains] 06/11/2020 10:05

I like the "Dirty Burger" at Wotton Hatch so much at I bought the company.
It was brilliant.
Obviously closed for a bit but they will be back!


They own loads of places like this. PE just 4.
Not many bargains left - this appears to be one of them!

[loganair] 03/11/2020 11:20

Mitchells & Butlers: a pub group worth a punt by Dr Matthew Partridge:


This year has been a nightmare for the hospitality industry. One company that has seen its share price suffer a particularly brutal beating owing to Covid-19 is Mitchells & Butlers. When the stockmarket collapsed in mid-March, Mitchells &Butlers’ (M&B) shares fell to less than a quarter of the level they had reached at the start of the year.

Although they rallied strongly over the next few months, they have now started to fall again owing to the return of strict social-distancing measures and regional lockdowns. M&B’s share price is now two-thirds below its level of 1 January.

Still, there are some reasons to think that things aren’t as bad as the price would imply. The government’s furlough scheme has allowed M&B to cut costs drastically during the time its pubs and restaurants were shut, while the government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme in August helped it recover some lost ground.

While total revenue has fallen by a third over the last nine months, compared with the same period last year, September sales were only down by around 7%. Meanwhile, M&B’s management has managed to persuade creditors and bankers not only to restructure existing debts, but also to increase lending facilities, thereby greatly expanding the group’s financial breathing space.

Of course, the latest wave of restrictions across large party of the country are hardly good news. However, their impact has been cushioned by the fact that the government has allowed pubs and restaurants that serve significant amounts of food to keep operating, even in areas under the tightest restrictions. Given that M&B derives much of its revenue from food sales, this has helped keep closures to a minimum, although some pubs in the North have had to be shut. With growing hopes that a vaccine could be approved in the coming weeks, there is a good chance that the restrictions could be relaxed in time for Christmas.

The bad news is in the price:

If M&B does manage to get through the current crisis, then the upside for its shareholders could be very large. Not only does it trade at only nine times 2021 earnings (and just four times 2019 earnings), but its shares are also at a huge discount of 57% to the value of its net assets. While many of these assets are in the form of leases, it also owns the freehold of many of its pubs, which could potentially be sold to property developers in order to meet demand for houses and flats.

With M&B’s share now trading above their 50-day moving average, its looks as though market sentiment may have bottomed out and begun to improve.

[essentialinvestor] 12/10/2020 18:22

JDW results this week will be interesting.

[1blueletter] 06/10/2020 13:58

Bought some MAB this morning, looks like a good one to hold. Here's a good research piece on it -

[catsick] 06/10/2020 09:20

Nice write up which I would agree with ...

[1blueletter] 06/10/2020 08:33

Interest buy perspective on MAB -

[catsick] 02/10/2020 09:54

If you compare to other shares priced like basket cases RR and IAG , we have a clear path to profit in the short term, lots of help from the government and no rescue rights issue needed, lots of safety in comparison ...

[flyfisher] 29/9/2020 08:02

Would an expectation of a £95m three months closure loss, business operating at a small profit for july - september and currently trading at break even be a realistic view of the current situation?

[catsick] 28/9/2020 09:53

Trading update is usually just sales levels, they will have lost money while shut as a one off event but if like for like sales are the same as a year ago but you have no rates to pay and a massive vat saving and had ebitda of 20% before then my guess is that it would be very hard not to make a profit for the more recent months

[essentialinvestor] 24/9/2020 15:49

If they had traded profitably over the last 3 months,
expect that would have been mentioned.

[catsick] 24/9/2020 12:48

Buying more, trading is good , extra vat gift and a massive way subsidy from the government

[catsick] 24/9/2020 09:24

Will need more staff for table service only but, the numbers for recent trading were surprisingly good given the raft of rules, once we get back to normal this business should look very sound.

[csmwssk12hu] 24/9/2020 08:12

Much better than expected, a lot better than whitbread, I’ve been into a few of their businesses over last few months, good social distancing, seemed busy to me can only imagine when this is all over (next year I suspect) just how busy they will be, they were running on less staff but still coping well which tells me they are managing the finances and using furlough, I actually went passed one yesterday evening and it looked at capacity inside and even had two drinkers outside in the rain under umbrellas. I have been in and used them and they have adopted a policy of if you are eating you can eat inside or outside, if you are drinking only you drink outside, with 77% of property owned freehold and the ability to access plenty of cash to see them through and most likely operated profitably over the last three months these will not be at this price for long, I expect next year a lot of people will look back and think wow I should have bought them then all imho dyor

[lasata] 24/9/2020 07:48

Views on the update?

[spursspurs] 22/9/2020 10:50

Looking a bit better now

[catsick] 21/9/2020 12:45

I guess I was a bit too early

[catsick] 21/9/2020 08:54

125 ok I am going to try catch this falling knife !

[csmwssk12hu] 21/9/2020 08:54

The minute the lockdown is announced the markets will soar just like last time, markets hate uncertainty at the moment they know a lockdown is coming just don’t know when. Once it’s announced it knows where it is at, the government will have to com up with another financial package of support, ironically most businesses are better off closed right now with support than open without it, let’s face it most businesses in March were looking at being closed for six months (except online and supermarkets), even the government expected to be difficult till end of October hence furlough close date, u turn coming on that soon aswell, we came out of lockdown earlier than thought, business grants given and business rates zero till March 2021 all help. A lot of property here is freehold, key is selling off unprofitable ones as property is booming and will boom till end of March when stamp duty reduction ends.

[hibberts] 17/9/2020 14:49

If we have another lockdown £1 looks on the cards.

[spursspurs] 17/9/2020 14:20

hmmm continue to decline.....

[spursspurs] 15/9/2020 13:06

Where do you think this is heading? Will it bounce off £1.40 or continue to decline?