Mirada Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 11/2/2016 02:13

However, MIRA's mexican customer base is growing. So good news! Assuming we do finally get into their houses!!



Cablecom, Cablemas, IZZI, Telecable, Axtel are all signed up.

[rambutan2] 11/2/2016 02:11

Yes and no, wigwammer! Yes, the first placing (at 12.5p) was needed to fund the Televisa work. But no, the second (and more dilutive) placing (6p) was due to the fact that the Televisa rev had not kicked in as expected and cash/debt had gotten too stretched. But as we know, the Gods rarely smile on microcaps!

[wigwammer] 09/2/2016 07:48

"Not forgetting that a share price comparison only means something if same number of shares in issue".Yes and no, rambutan,Yes in the sense that the market cap fall is smaller than the price fall. Although the mc is still down 40-50% over that time. No in the sense that the proceeds from the dilutions have been used to increase the value of the underlying business - progressing the televisa contract has been a valuable use of funds (to my mind). No also in the sense that if you buy a share near its all time peak, you are buying near peak sentiment. Good news is expected. Whereas over recent weeks, with the shares trading at all time lows, you are buying with little expectation built in.Usually better to buy when others don't want to, even if it is psychologically harder.

[rambutan2] 09/2/2016 03:36

Not forgetting that a share price comparison only means something if same number of shares in issue. We now have an extra 54m in issue ie gone from 86m in May 14 to 139m currently.

A tier 2 deal would tie things over nicely and should be within current cash constraints. Once a few months rev has kicked in from upcoming Televisa cable cos (due to commence april) then a tier 1 should be doable without killer dilution. imho

[wigwammer] 08/2/2016 22:00

The share price now is around a third of what it was in May 2014.It don't take a genius to work out why the reaction may be different this time.Hope that helps.

[pj 1] 08/2/2016 18:19

Tier 1. May 2014. Was supposed to be the 'transformational and game changer' Telefonica etc, which resulted in delay after delay after delay, by placing and another placing. Maybe some research required? Can lightening strike twice?

[wigwammer] 08/2/2016 17:35

Which contract?

[pj 1] 08/2/2016 17:06

They won their last tier 1 around 9p if I remember, its now half of that. Who would have thought it then?

[wigwammer] 08/2/2016 16:25

Have a guess, pj1...

[pj 1] 08/2/2016 12:55

who knows?

[wigwammer] 08/2/2016 12:26

If they announce tier 1 projects, they won't be diluting at today's price, will they?

[pj 1] 08/2/2016 09:11

IMO The Market is clearly waiting for more Tier 1 contracts (long promised and long overdue)

However, MIRA currently have no funds to support any such contracts. There lies the problem

So whilst I agree it looks undervalued today, is it when any predicted future dilution takes place?

[looby loo] 06/2/2016 21:34

All credit and respect to Spike501 for their very informative 22 January comment onto Paul Scott's SCVR, 30 December 2015:






As it was posted 3 weeks after the SCVR, it probably wasn't seen by any Mirada investors, so I've copied onto here:


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Paul,

Good to see a view on Mirada and although I can't really argue with much of the overview I think there is a clear bull case here.

They have the large contract with Televisa which from a set up perspective has been capital intensive especially with the launches being delayed by Televisa - Televisa have been integrating a number of new cable networks and have been under investigation by Mexico's competition commission for market share in cable TV which went Televisa's way at the end of last year, so its clear to see where their priorities have been. While I don't think the risk of delay has gone, I think any delay would be weeks now and not months. Televisa over the course of the last 2 years will have spent somewhere around $10million with Mirada who will provide their full Cable TV operating platform, so I see the risk of Televisa walking away very small - it would delay their upgrade at least another 18 months based on information so far they seem happy.

The Televisa deal is a great deal as it is an already installed base so Mirada aren't necessarily reliant on the success of Televisa - although the forecasts for Mexico pay TV and Televisa are pretty good. Once live, Mirada will simply collect $3-5 per box that Televisa replace old with new - for cable networks this is typically around 25% per year due to defects, customer churn and active marketing of improved product. Mirada are already rolled out in the smallest network which has 450k subscribers and in 7 months 60k have been upgraded to Mirada's software - about bang on the 25% per year market standard. Mirada get paid by box, not by subscriber and the existing rollout is averaging 1.7 boxes per subscriber.

The next two networks planned to rollout are based in Mexico City and are far bigger - approaching 2.4 million subscribers between them - so assuming a similar box per subscriber that will be around 4 million boxes. Mirada also stated they expect a further two networks that Televisa acquired to be rolled out next year - they come with a further 1.2 million subscribers so around 2 million boxes.


In terms of financials..

For this year end 31/03/16 they updated they expect to hit forecasts - these are for £7 million in revenues and £0.6 million in PBT. This does rely on Televisa going live as it will be professional services revenue and back off licences, so any delay does risk the figures for this year, although I expect they could still legitimately accrue much of the revenue. I expect if they do go live this year, they will beat revenue as most of it will be USD billed to Televisa, so the weak GBP/USD FX rate will add a bit more.

This will make the balance sheet look much stronger - most of the debt is short term. Taken together with the placing net current assets should exceed £1 million with long term debt of £1.5 million, possibly even net current assets could exceed long term debt.

2017 expectation is for £8 million in revenue and £1.8 million in PBT. I believe the company must have a fair bit of visibility around this. They immediately benefit from more regular cashflow through licence fees as Televisa roll out over 4 million boxes - this should provide £2.5 million, not even considering the next two networks. They should also have strong revenues from additional professional services for the final two networks and the OTT contract, both of which could provide further licence revenue.

2018 should also have a very strong platform, as all networks should be live and rolling out so they could exceed £3million in licence revenue plus another £1-2million in OTT revenue - all of which is virtually 100% margin.

So I think this year, next year and probably the year after the company should be able to deliver profitability and positive cashflow. The next key is to win additional sizeable contracts to grow further and provide more diversified and sustainable earnings once the peak of Televisa revenue is past.

If they do achieve these expectations, this is significantly undervalued.

[1kiwi] 04/2/2016 13:15

Getting ready for round 2

;)

[rhiannon] 04/2/2016 11:08

MIRA getting excited.

[1kiwi] 04/2/2016 10:16

gnmartin

Good post, looks like another great day again. 4.75 paid, doesn't take much to move this. Good to see the large amount held by II's. Agree that this could treble from this level, I wonder if they are looking at any contracts to do with the games in Brazil this year. I see that this question has previously been put to them in an interview.

Still at a massive discount to recent placing, not for much longer imho.

[gnnmartin] 03/2/2016 12:14

I went to the I&I forum yesterday, heard José speak and talked to him later. There are, as Tom W. would say, a few red flags. I'm not sure that it is usual to categorise work that has not been invoiced as a receivable, but José expresses confidence that the work will be completed, invoiced, and paid. Even after the recent placing, the finances are not rugged. But the current price is very low, so if they do pull through, this could easily treble and more. And José seems very confidence that the delayed rollout will take place this quarter. Anyhow, I decided to buy another 100,000 this morning.

[gnnmartin] 30/12/2015 16:23

I thought today's announcement very encouraging. I would like to hear the bear view, in case I have missed something. If José is right, then the shares look undervalued to me. I know that José has not met expectations several times before, but it does look to me as though it is a case of success being delayed rather than never achieved.

[ftseproactive] 29/10/2015 13:22

José Luis Vázquez, CEO of Mirada, speaks to Proactive

[paleje] 29/10/2015 10:48

Sounds like a spot of BS in there, what were the additional professional services required by Televisa, why weren't they provisioned for at the time. A fund manager, I can't say the name, commented on these last year and expressed concerns about corporate governance, I think he was right although I didn't at the time, I don't hold now and today's RNS doesn't make me want to re-enter.

[stewy_18] 29/10/2015 09:58

Classic AIM value trap. Complete rubbish.

[rambutan2] 29/10/2015 09:09

And the inevitable dilution headlines...

Placing, Subscription and Notice of General Meeting

mirada plc, the AIM-audio-visual interaction specialist, announces a proposed
placing and subscription to raise approximately GBP1.5 million (before expenses)
by way of the issue of 24,531,939 placing shares ("Placing Shares") and
468,061 subscription shares ("Subscription Shares") (together the "New Shares")
at a price of 6 pence each (the "Placing").

Highlights

* The Placing and Subscription has conditionally raised GBP1.5 million of new
funds for the Company

* 24,531,939 Placing Shares conditionally placed with existing shareholders,
board members and managers and 468,061 Subscription Shares subscribed for
at 6p, a discount of 4.0 per cent to the closing mid-price on 28 October
2015

* Focus of the Company remains on the large scale roll-out of the Televisa
contract

* Negotiations continue with other potential Tier One and Tier Two customers

* The new funds will be used to strengthen mirada's balance sheet and working
capital ahead of the expected Televisa roll out during the next financial
year

* New funds will also be used to enable mirada to fund the additional
professional services requested by Televisa in accordance with the original
contract dated 19 May 2014 as supplemented by various annexes

1. Televisa Group S.A. ("Televisa") is a Mexican based multimedia company and
the largest Hispanic content producer in Latin America.

José Luis Vázquez, CEO of mirada plc, commented: "I am delighted with the
support of existing shareholders, board members and managers in this Placing."

"The focus of the Company remains on the large scale roll-out of the Televisa
Contract and the Directors believe this will be the key priority of the Company
throughout FY16 and into FY17 for further professional services and new
networks to deploy."

"The Company remains in negotiation with other potential Tier One and Tier Two
customers and any further updates will be released to the market in due
course."

"I look forward to seeing shareholders later today at the AGM".

[rambutan2] 29/10/2015 02:39

Agm is today. Need the below to hurry up in its implementation...

[pj 1] 29/9/2015 21:23

Just over 3 months ago the Co. posted a trading update.

''providing high levels of visibility whilst also providing a step change for growth potential''

''High levels of visibility'' which results in 3 months later being 'materially behind market expectations'.

Wasn't much visibility then after all?

Ar*e and elbow spring to mind!

[looby loo] 29/9/2015 20:15

Proactive interview with Jose & some additional comments: