Minoan Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 25/4/2019 09:19

Regardless of the disappointment of the time taken for CE and BOD to have taken the project forwards and the increased dilution I still believe the company is grossly undervalued for the valuable asset we hold.

Land like this is not going to come available for development often.

[yorgi] 25/4/2019 09:16

Steady buying this morning 😊

[justjill] 25/4/2019 09:00

Thanks for highlighting Shareprophets there Waterloo. However their credibility on Min is long dead, just looks like corpse hasn't stiffened yet. :)

Not sure TW is a real friend of CE, but if so that is even worse.

I suggested a long while back that the BoD should have done some kind of share issue at price premium, even to all shareholders. That was before sale of T+L and confidence was still high. They could have then hived off T+L to a separate listing or whatever was best. But not selling in way they did. And cleared substantial or all debt.

If news was coming any time reasonably soon, then I don't believe they could have done a restricted issue now - even at premium. Mind you given some of the things the BoD have done, or that get done on wider AIM, who knows.

But anyone reasonably new, who think big holders or insiders know best when subscribing, should look at the subscription that was planned for Dec 2017 (for limited bidders) and those who did buy at 6p(?)! See how that worked out. Mind you the formal raising on the markett was abandoned as not enough believed they BoD were on the case then.

But I am stilling holding...more in hope and also very much in sorrow at massive paper losses.

So here's still hoping!

[pinkfoot2] 25/4/2019 06:29

I agree Waterloo-as I said, hang on to Z’s shirt tails

[waterloo01] 24/4/2019 21:12

Pinkfoot even if that was the case, at least our interests are more aligned.

[atlantic57] 24/4/2019 20:30

Agreed and understood

[atlantic57] 24/4/2019 20:30

Agreed and understood

[waterloo01] 24/4/2019 20:15

Let's see where the share price is on the 2nd May but yes.

Edit: It's also effectively underwritten as debt holders will exchange debt for shares (no actual money changing hands but cleans the balance sheet and debts). They will only be clawed back by the amount subscribed to by holders.

[atlantic57] 24/4/2019 19:51

I suspect the offer price would be higher .
However they will have try and get bid price above the 2.75 p level otherwise no one would take them up.

[michaelmcandrew] 24/4/2019 19:43

I must be missing something - the open offer price is 2.75p whilst the offer price on II is 2.35p. As a shareholder, why would I not just buy my entitlement and any further shares in he market and save 0.4p per share? I get that there will be dealing costs in the market. If you take up £1,000 worth of shares in the open offer, the same number of shares with £10 dealing costs would be £865 in the market. As I say, what am I missing?

[pinkfoot2] 24/4/2019 19:35

Waterloo-I’m cynical because the BOD have destroyed shareholder value whilst rewarding themselves.

My point about being inside is very relevant-if there is anything market sensitive, then there is no way can they subscribe for yet more paper.

There is a positive-Z are up to their necks in it now so probably worth hanging onto their shirt tails

[pj 1] 24/4/2019 18:11

Thanks for the response microscope

[waterloo01] 24/4/2019 17:21

Pinkfoot2, very cynical but they already announced an advanced JV in the previous RNS.
As for the the BOD and main loan holders and now named shareholders being inside, well yes. They all wouldn't be accepting paper, and at a premium unless they were also fairly convinced that the end game was being played out.

This process seems mainly about the balance sheet and getting everyone 'in line' so to speak. We'll see over the next weeks and months but I'm hopeful of seeing a decent return.

[pinkfoot2] 24/4/2019 17:11

They wouldn’t be able to do this if there was anything in the offing-it’s called being inside.

This is all about getting the 2018 accounts signed off-and of course they have run out of money!

[waterloo01] 24/4/2019 16:37

Thoughtful post microscope. Clearing up the balance sheet is I think a clear signal that deals are in the offing, the 1st of which they have already announced. What the value is of that deal will help define the value for the whole, and I don't think 50m + will prove unrealistic, at east once the 1st benchmark is down.

The balance sheet would certainly have caused issues with any purchaser, especially given the strike prices. A total mess even, so with T&L gone, doing deals will be front and centre. I think they as much as many long term holders have had enough, so think this, with the last update marks a realisation of that process.

[microscope] 24/4/2019 15:38

Hi PJ. Fwiw, I think the main thing it shows is the depth of the current balance sheet woes in terms of the likes of cashflow and debts. For me much of the analysis has been way too superficial of the finances for a long time, especially from Align who regularly paid scant attention to these very serious issues.

On the plus side this will tidy up most of the mess, though the 'burden of proof' for a viable future remains with the BOD.

Would imagine that any potential investors in CS have looked at the finances and said they couldn't possibly partner with Minoan until the situation gets sorted out, and in fairness they've taken the necessary action.

Will be interesting to see if shareholders take up their new shares. If they don't they face 31% dilution, if they do they are being asked to pay above the market, which is a bit rich after everything they've put up with.

On the other hand the end-game becomes, for me for the first time, genuinely viable, albeit in a series of developments probably one at a time over several years.

It's time for people to be realistic about that rather than talking fantasy about 50 million land valuation etc etc.

Do the Board have the energy, motivation or belief to bring it to fruition at last? That is for each investor to weigh up and make their own decision. The evidence hasn't exactly given them a good report thus far, but it does seem as though they might just be taking things seriously at last.

Better late than never.

All very much imho!

[pj 1] 24/4/2019 14:38

Lots of hindsight questions, like why didn't they call in the designers 2 or 3 years ago and market this thing properly? What exactly were they trying to sell 2 years ago?


Have there been any comms from Align research today? I wonder if they still hold, but quite hard for them no to after making it a 2019 conviction buy.

[mark of the rushes] 24/4/2019 13:36

It's a shame this shockingly incompetent executive team didn't have the foresight to raise two years ago at above 10p.

[pj 1] 24/4/2019 11:53

@microscope. Can I ask your views? TIA

[waterloo01] 24/4/2019 11:50

The loan note holders look like they have been backing the company for years (look at the original conversion prices which gives an idea of when they must have been issued). They are also locked in for 6 months + and at this time, suspect they are being supportive of the company to see it finally monitise the project. They could have pushed for a lower premium, but didn't and with directors taking fees at 3p I'm fairly confident. Hopefully once the JV gets confirmed it will put a minimum value on the whole project and that should be a lot higher than the placing price by a multiple

[pinkfoot2] 24/4/2019 11:44

Good luck Waterloo-the loan note holders are of course conflicted because running out of cash or Going Concern issues in the 2018 accounts will materially hurt them too-this latest wheeze will kick the can down the road and keep the show rolling.Not sure I would be buying more however and it looks like a few are taking the liquidity opportunity to exit.

[yorgi] 24/4/2019 11:20

Profit taking not surprising but still buyers about. The BOD appear to have the financial situation sorted now so I hope we will soon get news of progress on seeing the project moving forwards.

[waterloo01] 24/4/2019 11:10

Happily taken some more this AM. Directors taking shares at 3p and hopefully JV announcement will follow with a deal or two.

Once a price is established it should put the full value of the project into context.

Note the comment in the RNS about £15m minimum from any disposals. I'd suggest that puts a lower limit on the value.

Also worth noting that in effect the whole raising is underwritten as anything not taken up by holders will be taken up by loan holders. They are also locked in for 6 months plus

"Accordingly, the Conditional Subscribers are underwriting the Open Offer pro rata to the sums owed to them. The Subscription Shares to be issued to the Conditional Subscribers pursuant to the Conditional Subscription (and subject to clawback in full by Qualifying Shareholders through the Open Offer) will be subscribed for by the release of debt on a pound for pound basis."

Edit: I think the clearing of the balance sheet (although admit didn't realise the amount of debt built up) is also a clear signal that things are happening.