Minoan Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 06/1/2019 08:05

From Align Research:

Selected valuation
Greece has a shortage of high quality hotels and only one high quality integrated resort in the country and so there are limited peer comparisons available. Both the resorts compared are far smaller in overall size at 164 and 75 acres compared to Minoan’s vast 5,500 acre site. This is an important consideration as although they cannot be built more extensively than the outline planning dictates, it does offer the real scope for Phase II and Phase III developments in the future.
Unlike Crete, Kéa Island is not a well-known holiday destination and is only reached by a ferry from Lavrio, which lies half an hour outside of Athens. In contrast, Crete is a renowned holiday island and the recently opened Sitia International Airport already enjoys flights from twelve European cities. The resort at Kéa Island will have around 30,000 square metres of built space compared to 135,000 for Minoan’s so its recent valuation of €40 million seems to serve as a real base case valuation for Minoan’s project. However, Minoan’s project looks to be a far superior site for a number of very obvious reasons including: size, build density, transport links.
The determined conservative valuation of the site of the Astir Palace Vouliagmeni provides a current top of the range value. Although this has been exceedingly pared down from the valuation at which JSREF acquired the resort, this just shows the upside potential that feverous bidding for a trophy asset can generate. The Greek property market has had its problems and there was a slump 2-3 years ago, but recent news seems to confirm that the hotel real estate market has bounced back strongly and prices are probably no worse than they were in 2013. Minoan obviously monitors the prices in the Greek hotel real estate market and reports that prices are 75% - 100% higher than in the slump. It cites the recent sale of a Greek 5 star hotel (31⁄2 stars international) that in the slump would have been valued at €50,000 per room but was recently bought by TUI Partner at a price of €102,000 per room.
The price we have selected to use in our analysis is the average of the price of the resort at Kéa Island (€40 million) and our determined conservative price for the value of Astir Palace Vouliagmeni, which produces €67.5 million (£59.2 million). This figure suggests a well- warranted premium valuation to the Kéa Island resort site as well as providing a nod towards the substantially higher valuation of Astir Palace Vouliagmeni deal.
Minoan valuation



Valuation £ million

Crete Project (95%) at £59.2 million valuation


56.2

Cash


0.5

Debt (post disposal of the Travel and Leisure division)


Nil

Total


£56.7m

Per share (272,659,442)

20.8p

Fully diluted basis



Additional funds brought in re warrant exercises


£2m

Total (fully diluted)


£58.7m

On a fully diluted basis (341,240,452)


17.2p

Source: Align Research

[pj 1] 04/1/2019 17:32

If it hits 5p then there would be an argument that a corner has been turned chart wise.

[atlantic57] 04/1/2019 17:26

5p leaves me with a 50% loss If we end up in the hands of Zachary then I suspect 5p is what we will get.

[fireplace22] 04/1/2019 17:17

I'm looking for 5p and be pleased with that!

[atlantic57] 04/1/2019 17:15

You should pile in scotty we will soon be at 24p ;)😂

[yorgi] 04/1/2019 16:44

Disappointing that there was no movement today with some very healthy gains elsewhere today. A good end to the week overall even if not here at Minoan 😊

Hopefully news or no news with new money being invested at the beginning of the year there may be some new investors who see the value in Minoan that is all based in a beautiful part of Crete.

[fireplace22] 04/1/2019 15:31

Yes buys, everything above 2.65 is.

[yorgi] 04/1/2019 15:30

Thank you for confirming that Fireplace...... every little adds up 😊

[fireplace22] 04/1/2019 15:28

yorgi all trades above 2.65 are buys (one is mine a whole £500 worth!)

[wi1l] 04/1/2019 15:26

Yes but interesting and thanks for the explanations. Just for good measure it would appear that the 100K "sells" are actually buys unless of course I am mistaken...……..?

[yorgi] 04/1/2019 15:22

100k trade would seem to be a buy !

[yorgi] 04/1/2019 15:11

From Align Report :

Conclusion
We know that the Crete Project is a trophy site and there are few such opportunities today in the Med. The vast size of this untouched site and the low build density does provide the real possibility of Phase II and Phase III developments at a later stage, which must be in the minds of all potential partners.
With all this going on, and bearing in mind the most recent comments in Dec 2018, specifically – “The Directors and management of the Group are progressing the Joint Venture and Partnership discussions in respect of the Company's project in Crete (the "Project") referred to in recent announcements...” we now anticipate an update on this in the first quarter of 2019. There is a multitude of potential scenarios that could play out from a part sale to wholesale exit and distribution thereof of the proceeds to shareholders through to an outright takeout.
As the table on the previous page illustrates, however we splice and dice the current market cap with the pared down debt burden, the discrepancy relative to peer valuations for the asset is glaring. At the current price of 2.5p per share we expect positive news on Cava Sidero to deliver multi-fold returns relative to shareholders. The only caveat here is that the Board have had a record of delayed delivery and many market participants are sceptical of a final value realisation event. This has been a long time coming for shareholders but we are confident that management will, finally, deliver this in 2019.
Cognisant of the current stock price and the difficulty management would have in obtaining a takeout multiples of this stock price notwithstanding the inherent value in the Cretan asset we accordingly ascribe a new price target of 8.6p, being half of our deemed fundamental value. We stress that this is purely as a consequence of the current depressed sentiment in the stock and in being realistic as to how a potential acquisitor of the entire company would work. Conviction Buy.

[fireplace22] 04/1/2019 14:50

If you look at the ADVN trades on anything but live streaming two of the 400k trades have disappeared leaving the rollover at 2.88/2.9. Much ado etc!

[yorgi] 04/1/2019 14:47

Align have now edited page 7 now so the report now looks to be pretty much correct from what I can see.

Now all we need is the BOD to get some signatures sealed and announced to the market.

Although nothing new to those of us who know what Minoan hold in Crete for those that don’t the report makes clear what a prize we hold. All it needs is the market to be assured or convinced the BOD can and will take the project forwards one way or the other.

Then shareholders can see the reward they have been waiting for.

[justjill] 04/1/2019 14:45

Wi, I'm same as Scotty's last post. When doing rollovers you get a choice of what point to start at. Probably because there is no actual exchange of new stock. Just an agreement to leave current position open. So in a sense you generate some kind of fee in the deal for Mr and Missus Market. (plus 2.6 is the absolute current floor price of a sale)

[yorgi] 04/1/2019 14:40

MM’s not interested in many today. Maximum on line bid 80k and then slightly under the listed bid.

[scotty1] 04/1/2019 14:30

When it's a rollover wi1l you can do them both at sell prices or buy prices or one at sell and one at buy,in the past when i have done rollovers my broker asks me if i want to do them both above mid or below,it was a rollover.

[fireplace22] 04/1/2019 14:30

wi1l as I said above one of the 400k at 2.88 is now showing negative on lse cancelling one of the 2.88 buys so all that's left is a buy of 400k at 2.9 and a sell of 400k at 2.88 about right for a rollover.

[wi1l] 04/1/2019 14:25

Sorry not sure I agree it was a rollover - to my mind its two buys one at 2.88 and one at 2.90, a premium to buy so many. When the price to sell is still 2.6p why would they sell at 2.88p?

[fireplace22] 04/1/2019 14:17

Probably right scotty on lse one of the 400k at 2.88 has been shown as negative leaving a rollover of 400k at 2.88 sell and 2.9 buyback.

[scotty1] 04/1/2019 14:08

probably a rollover looking at the prices and time difference wi1l hence no price movement

[wi1l] 04/1/2019 14:06

Actually 2.9p is a higher figure, you can still buy for as low as 2.658p.

[wi1l] 04/1/2019 14:00

Someones interested albeit rather strange no reaction price-wise?

[atlantic57] 04/1/2019 13:00

I agree 100% with your comments that's why I got involved,
This is an outstanding asset and given the hurdles that Minoan had to overcome to get this far a would be developer should as you say be desperate to get hold of the asset.

[wi1l] 04/1/2019 12:49

Agreed atlantic, January should see some movement towards a deal and if not then something needs to be done to make it happen. If there has been plenty of interest it will take time to sift through it and find out who is genuine AND has the resources. It seems open ended as to what type of partner they want, even stretching to a full offer for the project. The conditions are right, tourism and tourist based assets in Crete increasing substantially in value and the demand is there, after all this is a one-off project that they should be falling over themselves to be involved. Only 0.5% of the area to be developed means 99.5% remains available for further development in the future, so if it was me I would get in at the start.