Minerva Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 02/6/2011 15:51

Most would agree that Morgan Stanley are highly professional investors with masses of analysts and industry specialists at their finger-tips.

As are Aviva.

I guess it would be fair to assume then, in my view only, that at least these two sophisticated institutional investors don't think that a higher bid will be tabled. -Otherwise why would they have sold?

I continue to hope for holders'sake that a higher bid is made but in my personal opinion when I see these big boys selling at near the 120.5p take-out price, it further strengthens my view that it is unlikely to happen.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[fireplace22] 02/6/2011 15:45

I think they went to Jupiter yesterday, part of their 20M buy.

[smurfy2001] 02/6/2011 15:39

Wonder who is buying that then?

[fireplace22] 02/6/2011 15:33

Morgan stanley now out 11.15M sold, and Aviva reduced by 1.8M. Still waiting on Kifin.

[smurfy2001] 02/6/2011 12:25

I've left %50 here just in case of a higher offer. I can't lose even if the offer does not go through.

[quepassa] 02/6/2011 11:39

Whilst I hope for all holders that a competing higher bid comes through, my personal view is that this is unlikely as the current offer is supported by directors.

There will however continue to be a lot of turnover in the shares.

Many existing holders will take the view that they prefer to get out now as:-

1. They will have absolute certainty of getting c. 118p now.

2. The upside to 120.5 is now highly limited and they feel they can reinvest for better returns elsewhere rather than wait 3(?) months to get the additional two-pence half-penny

3. There remains an outside chance ( unlikely in my view) that current bid could collapse on documetation grounds which would cause the share to tank ( at least temporarily)

4. On the other hand, the Bidding Group is likely to attempt to mop up as many shares as they can in the open market at 118p as this is -for them at least- a not inconsiderable saving by acquiring shares at this price rather than the full 120.5p.

5. Some static funds will also calculate that a 2.5p return for a three month investment on an outlay of 118p works out at an annualised return of approx 10% and will buy on that basis.

In my view, the continuing t/o in shares cannot at this point be a concrete sign that any further bid is coming.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[fireplace22] 02/6/2011 11:08

The latest RNS shows where Jupiter got 3M of the 20M from, and the last 2 RNS's possibly 5.5M in total?

[dr knowledge] 02/6/2011 10:50

Baldy - but you also said Kifin was yesterday's buyer! ;-)

[baldeagle5] 02/6/2011 10:30

As I said, I got my seat and the number 130 is on it.

[fireplace22] 02/6/2011 10:21

According to the press reports I've seen Kifin is on good terms with the potential bidders, so is it worthwhile for either to compete too vigorously? Whats the point (for them) of making an auction of it, I think we'll see some form of compromise. Baldeagles 130p may be it?

[targatarga] 02/6/2011 10:15

Perhaps mr Kifins planning a raid pre weekend.....

[baldeagle5] 02/6/2011 09:53

It aint over, till it's over.

[smurfy2001] 02/6/2011 09:51

As suspected.



smurfy2001 - 1 Jun'11 - 19:04 - 8326 of 8342 edit

Maybe someone sold the shares via a broker?

[sami69] 02/6/2011 08:40

Yes - maybe Baldy is gonna come true with his prediction.. Lets hope this is not over yet...

[fireplace22] 02/6/2011 08:20

I think thats relatively good news, suggests Kifin hasn't caved in to 120p?

[sami69] 02/6/2011 08:17

From todays FT - shares aquired from smaller institutional holders

[clarkey26] 01/6/2011 22:06

Through Evolution Securities, Delancey, the investment group run by Jamie Ritblat, and Area Property, the private equity firm, acquired around 12.5 per cent of Minerva at 118p a share. The bidders have offered 120½p a share for Minerva and the takeover will go ahead if certain conditions are met. Minerva rose 2.1 per cent to 119¼p.

-------------------------
Thanks fireplace, just spotted on Barclays, standard life as you say appear correct, it mentions it might be from last accounts. Latest RNS show Blackrock and Legal General among other holding 3+%. Interesting times.

[fireplace22] 01/6/2011 21:44

This posted on 'the other board'. Implies they just 'picked the stock up' from the market.


By Neil Hume
Published: June 1 2011 19:48 | Last updated: June 1 2011 19:48


There was heavy trading in Minerva as the consortium bidding for the London
property company raided the market for stock.

Through Evolution Securities, Delancey, the investment group run by Jamie Ritblat, and Area Property, the private equity firm, acquired around 12.5 per cent of Minerva at 118p a share. The bidders have offered 120½p a share for Minerva and the takeover will go ahead if certain conditions are met. Minerva rose 2.1 per cent to 119¼p.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[fireplace22] 01/6/2011 21:23

Clarkey26, the holders are from Barclays, think it's digtal look that supplies their info. The Standard Chartered holding is pretty similar to that in their recent holding RNS so the list could be up to date (as of yesterday anyway).

[clarkey26] 01/6/2011 21:09

It might well mean that. Also means they pick up a stake to protect their interest, slighty lower than the takeover price and will have a say in/make any counter offer more difficult. I think it shows confidence that a takeover will occur, or indeed should 'a let' happen(!!!) in the meantime they have a stake in the company regardless of the outcome.

Fireplace where did you get the shareholder list from, not sure it matches the disclosures back in Januaty and since in terms of holders? I haven't gone back through it tonight and did have a copy but on another PC. Can't remember Aberdeen etc

Whichever party/ies sold will be disclosing tomorrow, unless really have just picked up all the stock being sold early, not sure I can see that being the case though

[fireplace22] 01/6/2011 20:37

With such a big purchase by Jupiter. Does it infer the banks have given the nod to the waivers required to allow the offer to proceed? They may go for an earlier conclusion.

[sami69] 01/6/2011 20:33

Oh Well - with Dow tanking right now maybe a good time to get our money out!

[ak47high] 01/6/2011 20:17

If its Kifin, I guess the 130p is out the window.....I'm surprised at how quite he has been.

[sami69] 01/6/2011 20:08

lets hope it's not Kifin giving his shares away...

[fireplace22] 01/6/2011 20:05

These are the substantial shareholders.

K I F I N Limited 46,756,304 £55,756,892
Aberdeen Asset Management 24,422,679 £29,124,045
Trustees of the AI Rosenfeld Trust 17,281,169 £20,607,794
Henderson Global Investors Ltd 12,817,979 £15,285,440
Herling Ltd 12,371,309 £14,752,786
Standard Life Investments Ltd 11,291,251 £13,464,817
Gartmore Investment 8,790,248 £10,482,371
Credit Suisse Group AG 8,406,886 £10,025,212
Morgan Stanley Investment Management Ltd 8,368,484 £9,979,417
Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP 5,952,663 £7,098,55

Only Kifin and Aberdeen have more than 20M.