Michelmersh Brick Share Discussion Threads

[cheshire man] 17/3/2017 16:23

Looking to be a good eow close here:-)

[brummy_git] 16/3/2017 19:19

Many thanks Fishyneck - much appreciated.

[fishyneck] 16/3/2017 18:46

You almost answered your own question brummy. The blockleys range is classed as premium due to its high crushing strength, low water absorption and they advertise them as nil efflorescence(the salt staining that you sometimes see leaching from new brickwork). The plant is also know to produce very consistent bricks in size and colour. These reasons makes them very popular with architects and high end (premium) projects. With regards to the cost, I think their average is around £360/1000, this is in line with their peers. Fn.

[chickenrun1] 16/3/2017 14:03

Does anybody know why these are up 10% today?

I have some with our share club.

The results must be due soon.

[alanrussell] 16/3/2017 13:48

MBH was trading in the low 60s until October's cautious trading statement. Recent market conditions would suggest that the statement may well prove to be overly cautious. Monday's results should clarify. You would think decent numbers would send the share price back to about 60p.

I normally don't buy immediately before results (way too risky - you never know) but have doubled my holding of late. The kiss of death most likely!

[cheshire man] 16/3/2017 13:27

MBH doing well for me today :-)

[brummy_git] 16/3/2017 10:45

Unfortunately stock seems to be pretty illiquid, so I guess it can be difficult to get in and out? Hence shares likely to be volatile on daily basis?

[cheshire man] 16/3/2017 10:41

A fair bit of interest today I see :-)

[bamboo2] 13/3/2017 22:45

Chart has a potential INVH&S pattern.

Needs eod close above 51.5 to confirm tp 55

Potential st apex based turn in price 21st March [also lt 6th April]

I don't often trade these kind of reversals, but I really like the company products and have used FLB bricks and pavors in many projects. Prepared for lt hold.

[masurenguy] 13/3/2017 16:23

Hi GHF - great minds obviously think alike ! :o)
Don't know who the seller is but the volumes are fairly low.

[glasshalfull] 13/3/2017 16:09

Snap Mas! Just picked up further 25k.
Wonder who the seller is???

Kind regards,
GHF

[masurenguy] 13/3/2017 15:54

Added @49.75p this afternoon.

[stuart little] 13/3/2017 11:51

The brick industry is strong at the moment. Many bricks going out onto extended lead times again. I placed an order for a load of Blockleys bricks this morning and was quoted mid April. A lot of factories are quoting 8-12 weeks which for the time of year should set us up for a decent year.

stuart.

[alanrussell] 13/3/2017 08:27

Should be a bit busier next Monday. Quietly confident - Ibstock came out with decent numbers last week albeit a rather different animal.

[my retirement fund] 12/3/2017 11:01

Very quite here isn't it.

[cheshire man] 27/2/2017 08:59

Dipped a few toes in here,,,,,,thanks for highlighting GHF :-)

[alanrussell] 27/2/2017 08:43

Divi went from 0.5 to 1.0 last year. I am looking for 1.5p this year

[anley] 26/2/2017 15:32

I agree so go back to my post - 90p is a possible take-out price.

[glasshalfull] 26/2/2017 09:30

Morning rhomboid

Not my buying on Friday. Large quantities available most of last week, but tightened towards the end of week, as reflected by modest rise off lows on Friday.

Cenkos only have 1.3p div for 2017 but with proceeds from Dunton & their normal cash generation, surely they can begin ramping this up further?

Hope so...

Kind regards
GHF

[rhomboid] 26/2/2017 09:19

Hi GHF
Thanks for the post, was it your buying pushing the price on Friday?!
Do you have a view on likely dividend development over time?

Thx

[glasshalfull] 26/2/2017 09:02

MBH

Shares have been under pressure during the least 6 months with the price falling 35% in the period.

IMHO they appear good value at the current 50p level with the signs of recent selling dissipating on Friday & price edging up for the first time in a while.

The Jan 2017 update confirmed the sale of Dunton when, "...the expected surplus on sale will exceed £1 million" alongside confirmation of October 2016 guidance, but with the positive news of strong cash generation & news that the level of cash balance exceeded expectation.

Cenkos issued a brief update in Jan 2017 & commented,

"The company’s trading update reaffirms the guidance from October’s trading statement that performance is expected to be “at or around” that of FY15. However, cash generation has been stronger than expected, we believe due to superior working capital management and some deferral of capex payments into FY17. As such, we maintain our P&L forecasts, but update our cash flow assumptions (+0.3m working capital/-£0.2m capex), producing a net cash position of £4.7m (Previously £4.2m).

Our FY17 cash flow forecast has been updated to reflect the proceeds from Dunton’s sale. We now expect a net cash position of £8.2m by the end of FY17 should no further capex projects be launched.

Stripping out forecast net cash and realisable investment land in the balance sheet (£11.9m), Michelmersh trades on an attractive FY17E adj PER of 5.7x".

---

The brokers have forecasts of Adj EPS of 4.6p for 2016 & 1.2p div (2.4% dividend yield) alongside a +£2m uplift in closing net cash in the year to £4.7m as mentioned above.

Wouldn't surprise me if vultures were circling given the high margins enjoyed by the business & ever strengthening balance sheet. The NAV is forecast to rise to £55m by end of 2017 versus the current £41m market cap. All depends if the Chairman & Hoskins are looking to cash in their chips I suppose...

I've taken a modest position.

Kind Regards,
GHF

[alanrussell] 21/2/2017 22:36

I notice that the Bovis development on the first part of the Telford site, Oakford Grange (I can't help feeling that you would have to look very carefully to find either an oak or a ford), is now advertising "final homes now released". Presumably Bovis would like to acquire more of the site although, as I understand it, MBH have always said further land would only be released when they no longer had a use for it.

It may be that the next release will be in a different part of the site as the remaining factory rather prevents development continuing down the Sommerfield Road. If that's the case then there could well be a pause before a further sale.

[my retirement fund] 23/1/2017 15:23

Moving above trend line. Looking very rosy to me.