Michelmersh Brick Share Discussion Threads

[alanrussell] 30/12/2014 08:42

Article in the Telegraph about demand for bricks and low stocks including:

Martin Warner, chief executive of Michelmersh Brick, said: “Every brick we can make has already been sold up to three months in advance – the UK brickmakers can’t supply demand at the moment.”

This year's numbers should be good. Dividend at last?

[gill17] 24/12/2014 11:33

Happy Xmas to all the holders here that are benefiting with this sustained rise.

[hubs] 22/12/2014 12:17

Lots of buying today. It deserves a Christmas rally!

[gill17] 17/12/2014 09:33

This is now my favorite share, great rise...

[stuart little] 15/12/2014 11:13

One of the big players bought today with CRH selling Ibstock....brick supplies still a nightmare and forecast to be just as bad next year.

stuart.

[hubs] 15/12/2014 11:08

And a very upbeat update - I'm in. GLA

[envirovision] 07/12/2014 19:30

That overview says it all. 2015 eps 2.7p eg implied forward value 27p plus 26p NAV. Valuatuon on a forward basis 54p.Or to put it another way at 60p shareprice already carrying a lot of hope value.Imo lookd fully valued already!

[gill17] 05/12/2014 15:22

No, it is lacking excitement and I think that's what generates the odd seller. I will sit tight for now though and see what happens-certainly the property market is going to be great going forwards.

[alanrussell] 05/12/2014 14:36

It's not the most entertaining share is it?

The numbers due in March should be good but not much likelihood of action until then.

[envirovision] 04/12/2014 10:34

dead in water again

[envirovision] 26/11/2014 11:41

Nice to see a bit of PR from them

[gill17] 25/11/2014 12:25

It was in the issue on the 24Th November.



Michelmersh Brick Holdings

Earnings fell at Michelmersh Brick (MBH) in 2013, but first-half results this year were better-than-expected and forced Cenkos Securities to upgrade forecasts. Higher brick prices mean adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are now tipped to rocket by 1,000% in 2014, up from 0.2p to 2.2p. That’s more than double the 2012 figure, too. Next year, it's back down to earth, although forecast growth of 25% is not to be sniffed at, and average forecast growth for the two years is a stunning 511%.

Company Ticker Price (p) Mkt Cap (£m) Est EPS growth (Year 1) Est EPS growth (Year 2) Est EPS growth (Year 3) Forward PE ratio % price change (3 months) % price change (1 year) Dividend yield (%)
Michelmersh Brick Holdings MBH 61 49 1,000 23 - 28 -6 13 -
Greenko GKO 149 149 217 56 - 22 -14 -3 -
Havelock Europa HVE 19 19 158 41 23 10 -17 2 -
Mytrah Energy MYT 73 73 141 69 39 12 -17 -10 -
Gemfields GEM 50 50 136 104 38 20 5 29 -
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Investec Securities, Numis, Cenkos, finnCap, Oriel, Westhouse
MBH's share price is underpinned by investment land valued at 26p per share. Strip that out and Michelmersh shares trade on just 16 times current-year forecast earnings, dropping to 13 in 2015. That's a discount to the Construction & Materials sector. Unfair, says Cenkos:

We would argue that MBH should trade at a premium to this operating in an industry impacted by a supply demand deficit with high barriers to entry preventing significant additions to supply capacity. There is scope for a sustained recovery underpinned by political pressure to resolve the UK housing shortage and the minor £3,000 cost of bricks for the average UK house is indicative that there is scope for sustained price increases.

[envirovision] 25/11/2014 11:45

ahh explains a lot, is that not published on a thursday though?

[gill17] 25/11/2014 11:29

I bought yesterday morning at 57p as it was tipped in Interactive Investor. Other people have clearly taken notice. I'm very happy!

[envirovision] 25/11/2014 09:25

Agree with you looks like some serious volume coming in to stop the rot

[smackers prudentia] 25/11/2014 09:09

Early days but indicators just starting to turn noses up - OBV & RSI up and volume increasing over last few days - ideal time to buy IMO - only good news to come

[envirovision] 20/11/2014 12:56

Could reach and level off at 45 pence. I see there was some sore of news INTERVIEW: Michelmersh Bricks Stays Cautious Despite Market Recovery
however I can seem to access that, anyone read it?

[alanrussell] 22/7/2014 19:20

The numbers are good as expected but the remarks re. dividend are disappointing.

From the results 26-3-14
"The Directors are not recommending the payment of a dividend for this financial year but maintain that the return to dividends is a key target as operating cashflows are unencumbered by debt repayment and profitability provides available retained earnings."

Those conditions are surely met yet from yesterdays results
"The Board is not proposing the payment of an interim dividend. The former factory land sale at Telford has released revaluation surpluses to revenue reserves. With continued trading profits, it is anticipated that the Group will be in a position to recommence dividends within the foreseeable future, provided cash reserves are not utilised for profit generating investments."

That sounds very much like "the company may pay a dividend in the future but only if we can't find something else to spend it on". I hope MBH management aren't going to turn into empire builders. As has been said, if you keep making acquisitions it is only a matter of time before you make a bad one and one bad acquisition will wipe out the good ones.

As profits grow (the BoD have more or less flagged up FY = or > £3m bolstered by the increased Freshfields capacity in 2015) the price should gradually increase but not, I feel, as much as if a dividend was proposed.

I really am undecided if I should hang on.

[envirovision] 21/7/2014 09:43

nav 57p, eps 1.2 pence after 4 years recovery, cash raising and intergration of acquisition.

Not sure if thats anything to crow about

[samenic] 21/7/2014 09:24

Well,l know the market has discounted the improvement in a lot of sectors but would have expected a better reaction to those numbers ??

[alanrussell] 06/7/2014 15:09

Daily Telegraph 5/7/14

The boss of the largest listed brick maker in Britain, Michelmersh, has warned that stocks of the vital building blocks are at the lowest level in living memory.
Martin Warner, chief executive of Michelmersh Brick, said: "Every brick we can make is being sold straight away. I am seeing the lowest brick stocks in living memory across the UK."
Stock piles of bricks dipped to 338m at the end of April, down almost a third from 500m at the same stage last year, after stocks of more than 1bn were recorded in 2009.
Stocks of bricks are at the lowest levels for almost five years, the latest report from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills, and the Office for National Statistics showed.
The current stocks can now only cover about two months' supply to the building industry.
The shortage of bricks could put the brakes on the vital housebuilding needed to ease the nation's property price bubble, or at the very least steadily increase the costs for housebuilders.
"We are starting to get some price recovery in bricks after five years of stagnation," added Mr Warner.
The price of bricks has risen by about 8pc during the past 12 months, data from the joint report showed.
This followed a four-year period from 2009 when the price of bricks increased by an average of 2pc a year.
The disclosure on the shortage of critical building materials comes just a week after it was revealed that a shortage of apprentices in the construction industry could hamper Britain's economic recovery.
A cross-party commission was launched on July 1 to examine the situation after the Construction Industry Training Board found that the building industry needs 120,000 apprentices over the next five years to fill an emerging skills gap.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Up 8% in the last 12 months? - way, way more!
Roll on the 21st.

[alanrussell] 24/6/2014 13:55

The share price seems to be drifting down on low volume. Nothing of concern. There is little to provide direction until the post half-year trading update (22/7 last year). Time to light the bar-be-que instead of following MBH!

[alanrussell] 03/6/2014 12:09

Stuart, as ever we are grateful for your informed insights.