Merchants Share Discussion Threads

[zac0_4] 05/4/2021 12:25

SS - maybe. I simply take it that in the period March20 to March21, the worst period for dividend cuts, HHI have only had to use around 10% of their reserves to support maintaining their dividend. On the basis that the next 12 months should continue to see dividends being reinstated, the current payout from HHI will be maintained. Hopefully a similar picture will be seen in MRCH's results.

[superiorshares] 05/4/2021 11:24

Zac0_4
I see that as dividends will take a lot longer than people think to recover ?
The next big test I think will be the re-open
According to all and Sundry , There is going to be a huge pent up demand of spending !
we will see . Could have the potential to be a bit of a let down ?

[panshanger1] 05/4/2021 10:36

Thanks for posting Zac0 would have thought positive for HHI holders and here

[zac0_4] 05/4/2021 09:38

The following is taken from the Henderson High Income 2020 Annual report published on 31st March. I see it as an encouraging sign that UK company dividends may well recover more quickly that I have anticipated.

- "The Company had been building up its revenue reserves in each of the last nine years. At the end of 2019 revenue reserves exceeded £10 million, representing nearly 10 months' worth of dividend cover. Having utilised a small portion of these reserves to contribute to the dividend shortfall in 2020, we retained a very healthy balance of almost £9 million, well over 8 months' worth of dividend cover at the end of the year.



During the course of the year we have been monitoring the level and sustainability of dividends received from our portfolio companies. David has run frequent stress tests of the Company's revenue account under different scenarios looking several years ahead. Although the outlook for dividends is gradually improving, it is clear that it will take time for income to return to the levels enjoyed in 2019 and we anticipate a continued shortfall this year. Nonetheless, David's medium-term forecasts and the relative robustness of the Company's current reserves gives the Board reassurance that, barring unforeseen circumstances, the Company's dividend can be maintained at the current level, utilising revenue reserves where necessary. It remains, therefore, our intention to continue to pay at least the current level of dividend for the foreseeable future"

[ctrader3] 05/4/2021 09:25

buy and hold forever ?

* the TR for Adams seems to be incorrect.

[zac0_4] 03/4/2021 14:01

ctrader3 - out of interest how do you post a graph or spreadsheet onto this site?

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 12:21

The one thing financial advisers will
never advise u on.

with compound interest u should make the most
compounded gains in the last 5 years.
Pension providers have to have a flight to
safety in your last 5 years as there may
be a black swan event, like last year,
the month before u start to take your annuity.
£200k compounded at 7% over 5 years £280k.

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 12:15

Price at 6.7.04 £3.14
NAV £3.32 yld 6.28%

-----------

if u return to the price in the header
total dividends earned £4.05p so all
capital returned plus
73p of divis added to current price
£5.73, nearly another return of capital.
buy and hold forever or until the dividend
policy changes.

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 11:48

anyone foolish enough to buy at 312p has received
27p in dividends
current price included dividends earned 527p
if/when they get to £6.24 including dividends
u could take out your initial investment
and receive a 5% yield for nothing.
I can't work out what the annual % on that
would be and maybe u could do it all again
with another share, or even with MRCH
when the price falls out of bed again.

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 11:15

of course if I had waited after they fell below 476p and
used the chart to buy the yield I could have got a much
better price/yield. maybe next time ?
the market gave u another buying opportunity in Aug and Oct
always easier with hindsight.
TISBNE

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 11:09

below are my MRCH buys for Mar 2020

03 4.85p
09 4.29p
12 3.78p
17 3.54p

I have maintained a core holding and took some
profit above the core holding cost (although
u can't actually 'book' the profit unless u sell
all the shares)
always easier with hindsight but u have the confidence
with trusts they shouldn't go bust.

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 10:44

For comparison

no one, well no one who was sane, would have bought at the low
or could have predicted that outcome.
they may have run their race at least until they consolidate
so for trading only.
IMO

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 10:42

both buying at the date shown.
the investment is to buy the yield and hold forever, using the dividends
for re-investment.
the figures are real but look better because the market fell out of
bed.


Total return %

This column shows your realised or unrealised return for each transaction(including dividends). The Latest line expresses all realised returns and unrealised returns as a percentage of the total costs.


The Latest line is calculated as:

(Realised Profit (inc. Dividends) + Unrealised Profit) / Total Buy costs (including charges)


-----------

there are no buying costs included in the % shown.

[jfinvestments] 03/4/2021 10:06

Some amazing numbers there. What investment style is that, is that regular investment or buying at a target price?

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 10:00

if u use the low of the market, where only those buying
the yield would have considered buying, MRCH is up 71%.
if we use 300p as the buying price and the divi of 26p
returned a yield of 8.7% which will gradually increase
until u die or MRCH revise their dividend policy.

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 09:29

somewhere for your MRCH profits/divis to be re-invested ?

[ctrader3] 03/4/2021 08:55

that's my portfolio, I prefer not to list the actual shares.
it's a bit of a false picture as u have to remember what
happened a year ago.
my best share shown in the list is Black Rock Frontiers
which I held before the market fell so I'm only
up ten percent.
anyone who bought after the market fell could have the
above performance as always it's about timing and then
time in.

[zac0_4] 02/4/2021 15:13

I own 2 in 1st, Smithson and Polar Capital. With 3 in 2nd, Merchants, HFEL and Finsbury Growth and Income, although my position in Finsbury is very recent.

[ctrader3] 02/4/2021 14:17

not my portfolios, although I do own 4 of the second
portfolio