Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 05/12/2018 11:22

Oh, getting you are filtered, remember! I don't read your posts. No way. Not anymore. You say the same old troll things. I can just assume what you are saying. What a sad little fart of a man you are! The fart in the lift is your brain. Your body has had enough of it!

ROFLMAO!

[minerve] 05/12/2018 11:19

Oh yes, Burford really steaming ahead. LOL!

You don't usually find chimps in herds but ADVFN has a certain genetic breed! ;)

[minerve] 05/12/2018 11:17

Oooh look, another chimp. LOL

Go around saying my trades are dogs. Made a profit on AA. Well within profit in RR. Bovis investment coming along nicely - 10%+ Yield. Kier the same.

UK domestics cheap. Export, global traders seen as expensive. I've been building up UK domestics and they are starting to pay the dividends.

Don't try and compete with me chimps, you'll never win. I spend way too much of my life investing but it does mean my finger is on the pulse. You can't compete if you have a chimpy day job getting.

ROFLMAO!

[minerve] 05/12/2018 10:43

He he, CHIMP LIFE! ;)

[brexitplus] 05/12/2018 10:07

Yertiz, Getting

I don’t know about you but I’m not convinced that a 45% fall in share price in only 4 days, and 70% over 5 years, as has happened at Kier is particularly positive.

Even such a “poor” investment as Melrose can’t match that with down 2.5% over a week and UP only 223% over 5 years.

[minerve] 05/12/2018 09:39

Oh look Melrose not doing well. Time to talk about something else eh chimps?

Kier buy-in going well. And now with my rights, my average buy in is looking good. Better than your Melrose for sure.

Cheerio chimps. See you trolling later I guess, on Bur, Kier, Lloyds.....

Oh, by-the-way, I also own Drax shares. I've done very well watching them convert the coal burners to wood chip. Becoming a very sound integrated energy supplier with decent B2B consumers. Perhaps. I'll see you there too!

ROFLMAO!

[brexitplus] 05/12/2018 09:32

Yertiz

Another Exeter v Gloucester at Sandy Park!!!!!

[yertiz] 04/12/2018 10:27

I’d rather invest in Terry Smith’s funds than Woodford’s. Far more consistent. Carillion, Kier speak for themselves, never a great pick by NW.

[gettingrichslow] 04/12/2018 08:18

B+, interesting - it's the top holding in the GRS Fund - can never understand how it stays under the radar given its track record. Kier having a bad start again...

[sogoesit] 04/12/2018 08:12

Thanks for the alert to the publication B+
A lot of research to do looking at the Smithson Investment list... haven’t heard of most of them! Only Verisign, bringing back memories of the Dotcom bubble!

[brexitplus] 04/12/2018 07:19

Yertiz, Terry Smith has Halma as one of his top ten holdings in Smithson IT.

[gettingrichslow] 03/12/2018 22:07

Really good day for the Yertiz portfolio I see today. Halma and Ashtead taking off again. Can't remember if you're in Hargreaves L but good day for them too. Happy days!

[yertiz] 03/12/2018 21:37

Thanks for the heads up GRS - had to unfilter the FIAL to read his comments. The pair of them seem to be getting along just fine and dandy. The trouble is this will not help Minerve’s drinking problem or his fading memory. Couldn’t happen to a nicer person, Hahaha.

[gettingrichslow] 03/12/2018 20:53

B+, Yertiz, I've just received some very funny looks on the train out of London for laughing out loud at the latest posts on the KIE thread. Minny getting roasted by ElCapital. Start at post 1243 and enjoy! Minny is having a torrid time...MW, get over there and help him out ASAP!

[jackdaw4243] 03/12/2018 19:07

B+

Quite correct lenders and authorities are becoming increasingly aware of these "ring fenced SPV's" and want a little more comfort, like an arm, a child or a kidney or some other PG. The old Tarmac/Carillon debacle has had impact on sentiment for underfunded companies taking on large projects.

[brexitplus] 03/12/2018 18:00

Analysts at Liberum put Kier under review on Monday, noting that, while it will give the construction services outfit a stronger balance sheet, last weeks' rights issue left the group's cash flow looking poor.

Kier secured backing to raise £264m in a rights issue to reduce borrowing as management saw increased risks associated with its net debt position.

The FTSE 250 group plans to issue 33 new shares at 409p per new share for every 50 existing shares on Friday in order to raise roughly £250m - a 34% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price.

Liberum, which previously had a 'buy' rating on Kier, said the issue resulted in "a stronger competitive position" and noted that it could, in time, result in higher margins.

Given the £650m in investment assets, which management opted not to sell, and the firm's expected net cash in June 2019, Liberum anticipates Kier's balance sheet "will be stronger" but also noted that "cash flow will look poor".

The broker reduced its 2019 and 2020 earnings per share by 33% and 42% to 85p and 93p on a post rights basis.

Over at Canaccord, analysts were surprised by the rights issue but noted it would "clearly improve the balance sheet and reduce the financial risk of the group".

While Peel Hunt noted that lender concerns towards construction exposure could have an impact on uncommitted facilities and future financings as "potential customers and clients are also increasingly focused on service providers balance sheets".

[jackdaw4243] 03/12/2018 17:56

Kier along with AA and Bab seem to be on the leader board of shorted stocks.

[gettingrichslow] 03/12/2018 17:46

B+, ho ho, well remember that share price falls are good news because they allow one to build a bigger position! I'm afraid Minny is getting a pasting from all sorts of new posters that I've never seen posts from before. He doesn't help himself by calling them novices and morons when it is clear they are pretty clued up people who just don't share his view. Which is ok when you're being proved correct, but you start looking a bit silly when all your forecasts go horribly wrong! Never mind eh?

[brexitplus] 03/12/2018 16:25

Hi Getting

You seem busy over on Burford and Kier boards.

Another good day for Kier after a promising start. Currently down 12% and Canaccord today has a target price of £12. They don’t say when!!!!

Interesting comments on the sector from Proactive Investor

“Embattled outsourcing mid-cap Interserve PLC (LON:IRV) was under pressure again in late afternoon trading, down 8.9% to 25.50p as analysts fretted again about the firm’s survival in the wake of contracting peer Kier Group PLC’s (LON:KIE) move on Friday to raise cash to prop up its balance sheet.

In a note on Monday placing their ‘buy’ rating and 1,400p price target for Kier ‘under review’, analysts at Liberum Capital said: “This clearly has implications for the rest of the Construction sector, where we see Interserve as most vulnerable.”

After dropping over 22% on Friday in response to the deeply-discounted 33-for-50 rights issue priced at 409p a share, Kier’s shares lost another 8.4% on Monday, falling to 465.20p.

Elsewhere in the mid-cap contracting sector, MITIE Group PLC LON:MTO) lost 5.5% at 136.90p and Keller Group PLC (LON:KLR) shed 3.2% at 567p.

Liberum’s analysts commented: “Keller has a positive working capital model. Mitie, while not a construction company, clearly has a high level of leverage.”

[sogoesit] 03/12/2018 15:18

Thanks Yertiz, appreciate your reasoned thoughts.
I take it you see Nortek sale/disposal/listing as a whole and not in parts.

Brexit, in the long run is irrelevant, in my view.
If anything the impact of whatever it gives rise to economically will be seen in the exchange rate and this may already have been priced in to cable.
A decline in Sterling is a double whammy in favour of MRO, quoted in Sterling, as a holder of USD assets and an exporter from the UK.

There may, however, be (irrational?) volatility short term and, as you say, this may give rise to opportunity for the “greedy”.

[jackdaw4243] 03/12/2018 14:30

FWIW from my broker in his Monday letter to clients

A crisis forwarned is one you might just miss. The next trigger for a market slide could take three forms;

1.Market weakness: a number of analyst reports say markets are already thin ahead of year-end and could be vulnerable to a “sell-the-fact” switch into cash from nervous buyers. In effect saying markets remain overbought, despite Trump de-escalating the immediate tension.
Perhaps the damage has already been done – China growth has been slowed by the trade war thus far, and the knock-on effects are discernible across the globe.

2. Its possible we’ve already set in motion the next slowdown, and anything done now to reverse it is too late. As more and more investors figure the outlook has changed, the implications of a switch from stocks back to bonds (supported by the more dovish recent Fed-Speak) could be significant.
3.The third threat is a renewed geopolitical crisis, and that could also be brewing.

[yertiz] 03/12/2018 13:59

Pleased the sale of Powder Metallurgy hasn't happened, tbh. There's a great deal more to be gained by keeping it on board currently. I expect the next major divisional sale by Melrose will be Nortek. Profit won't be anything like as big as the Elster smart meter sale to Honeywell and moving Nortek will allow MRO board to concentrate on the good (and bad) parts of the curate's egg - GKN.

My time line for this to start making shareholders some serious returns is mid-2020, until when I'm happy to hold, but having made another 25% or more from the recent fall from £2 I'll remain dynamic and watchful for overselling and sell/buy back as I see fit.

Biggest fly in the ointment - probably for most UK shares, bonds, funds and currency - is Brexit, and the complete and utter shambles May & Co have made of this. I know their ulterior motive is to play the spoiling game to stop or erode the process, but that isn't what our democratic vote was for. The volatility this is going to cause will be a fantastic opportunity for investors with cash. I'm going to be greedy when others are fearful.

[sogoesit] 03/12/2018 12:48

Coming-up for the final quarter of the tax year so am reviewing my positions.
Does anyone have a time view on MRO?

I was in at about 230'ish early 2017 and my time view was 3 years.
Since then we've had GKN so time view probably now gets extended another 2-3 years making 5+ years.
Time for me to take some tax losses and re-enter next financial year without missing too much market action?
Business-wise it would be difficult for these folks to turn-around these assets in such short order since acquisition and it looks like Powder Metallurgy may not be the dog they thought.
On the other hand, not being the dog they thought they might sell it off quickly?