Meggitt Share Discussion Threads

[bigbertie] 09/6/2008 12:07

I've been in Meggitt to varying degrees for years, but have sold out now. The main reason is that the long-term graph looks like it's tipping over a cliff, but there are also fundamental reasons. I think we may get more delays (and cancellations) on major commercial airlines projects, especially with high oil prices. Also new contracts (eg Gulfstream) usually bring several years of development costs before deliveries start. All IMHO of course - good luck to all whether long or short.

[emmaflynn] 06/6/2008 23:04

Oil at record highs. After a few days of increases following some meaningless director buys i expect this to track further down.

Airlines wont be buying spares which will hit MEGGT hard (fact). My opinion is that they overpaid for K&F and expect delays to the integrations (especially if the americans are running it) which is hitting them hard in terms of debt repayments. Evolution sell note doesn't seem far fetched what with everything else going on in the economy.

[foreverbull] 03/6/2008 14:11

Up 5 % ....atlast somebody saw value in it.

Wondered if this is director buyings.....

[machoolahan] 30/5/2008 11:32

Nice director buy....

[bigbertie] 27/5/2008 10:14

this is getting miserable, on Friday most aero stocks down as record fuel prices hit airlines, but now they are all up a bit except Meggitt.......not good - hmmmm

edit at 17.15 - back up again now, phew!

[greatbull] 22/5/2008 13:01

FB,

Here's what Vector Vest had to say (a few days ago). I don't subscribe, so no idea how reliable/accurate. This was just a trial enquiry.


Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. MGGT.L has a Stop of $267.73GBX per share. This is 17.02GBX below MGGT.L's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.

GB.

[foreverbull] 22/5/2008 09:00

Yes, I am a holder but Evolution downgrade really concerns me....
Any stoploss....resistance and support levels for this share.

[bigbertie] 21/5/2008 21:15

Emmaflynn, they do have high debt at the moment, so a year generating cash and reducing that would be good. But big aero projects usually have lots of upfront costs, so that may not be so easy - I notice there is already a little pile of "project participation" costs and development costs capitalised on the balance sheet.

As for the bank facilities expiring 2010+ I don't see it being a problem to renegotiate those, given good visibility of forward orders on high profile projects. I'm a holder, are you?

[emmaflynn] 21/5/2008 12:51

Meggitt have a tremendous amount of loans due from 2010 ish. The interest rate they are paying is also at a high rate.

Maybe the market is being spooked by this. The only viable alternative is if they step up their K&F integration and move production to cheap production centres, china (already have bases there) and the US and Mehico (already have bases here).

Have they bitten off more than they can chew ? Who knows, but i am sure TT and rest of the super incentivised directors and top managers can turn it around, after all the better they do, the more money they get.

[bigbertie] 20/5/2008 10:33

I still don't understand this Evolution target price of 155p. I think all other brokers are buy or hold recommendations, the order book has long-term visibility, there is substantial business in US so the strengthening US$ should give a positive currency effect on UK reported earnings.

Negatives? Possible high start-up costs on new projects, delays on A380 & Boeing 787, and yet more acquisitions / rights issues. Why don't they just stop buying and selling companies and make a pile of cash for a change!!!

[foreverbull] 20/5/2008 08:43

Cheers Yorgi, good call.

[yorgi] 19/5/2008 16:35

Good solid company, just wins major contract surely good news. Don't see why Evolution should be downgrading it looks fair value to me.....Don't hold but looking to find funds to buy a few soon unless it rockets up before i have oppertunity

[greatbull] 16/5/2008 22:52

Edit - ForeverBull, found references to down grade. 155 sounds way off track with the previous brokers anaysis??? Is this a take with a pinch of salt, or panic?

Gb.

[bigbertie] 16/5/2008 21:56

anyone know what Evolution said - why do they think it's going to fall so far?

[foreverbull] 16/5/2008 12:59

Greatbull
It is downgraded today and Evolutionhas cut its target to 155. Is it right? What about bullish sentiment within aerospace mfg. industry then??? are we supposed to seel now??

[greatbull] 16/5/2008 12:14

Foreverbull, my targets are nearly slways over shoot, so £4 on current valuations would not be that suprising.

GB.

[foreverbull] 14/5/2008 08:46

GB
I am slightly more bullish! my gut instinct say £4 given strong fundamentals of this company and great growth story for aerospace industry!

[greatbull] 13/5/2008 17:23

In early today on the fundamentals, and momentum. Backmarker's p&f target is about the same as my initial target, 355-360, based on eps forcasts and sector PE.

Gb.

[foreverbull] 28/4/2008 09:04

This is looking positive and good today. Any news...broker upgrades....

[backmarker] 25/4/2008 14:08

a good safe hold, maybe more.

there was a (just-about) golden X on 22 Apr.

if we can get a good close in next few days above 292 then i would think the technicals are starting to look positive. a close above 300 would be really good and would activate a p&f target of 355-365

the fundamentals seem good, with strong trading statement at AGM yesterday. but with a generally bearish market it's difficult to see these - or much else - romping away.

[foreverbull] 25/4/2008 12:14

Share price going up..strong upbeat results...Any comments

[foreverbull] 14/4/2008 14:27

Any technical analysis on this share? Is this still a long term buy?

[shillling] 27/3/2008 13:36

mpilot
its better to be lonely when the price is going up rather than down.

[jackdour] 25/3/2008 01:05

Why did 6 directors sell large blocks of shares on 10 March? This might explain the downwards price trend.