Medica Share Discussion Threads

[ggbarabajagal] 22/12/2017 11:01

Mgp about to take off

Fair warning if you want you better buy

[ggbarabajagal] 22/12/2017 09:13

Moving up here

[lomax99] 20/12/2017 17:53

Ali47fish - a LTBH for me, unless the story changes. Currently slightly down, so taking the opportunity to average down sub £2. This is towards the lower end of it's recent trading range, they have a December year end, so not too long to go until we perhaps get a brief YE update, followed by full year results. They are the market leader, revenue CAGR is forecast at c. 20% for the next 3/4 years, even with some margin contraction Gross Margins should hold not much below 50%, so we should see strong EPS growth/a rapidly falling PE multiple over the next couple of years.

[ali47fish] 20/12/2017 15:37

why tyhe top up at this juncture lomax and tbsf please

[lomax99] 20/12/2017 09:29

Thanks TBSF, small top-up sub £2, will add progressively on further drops.

[thebigshortfella] 19/12/2017 12:07

lomax99 - fill your boots Lomax. I am out with a significant loss...Time to have some turkey and stuffing! Good luck fella!

[lomax99] 19/12/2017 11:48

The holdings RNS should be out shortly for yesterday's large sale. Looking to top up sub £2.

[thebigshortfella] 02/12/2017 13:35

steve3sandal - thanks. You clearly believe in MGP. Well done on Watkin Jones - brilliant rise there. Let's hope MGP will do the same. Good luck fella.

[steve3sandal] 02/12/2017 12:28

Tbsf...it is now 2.5% of my portfolio. I have had a rule about 1% max staked in each individual small cap but here and Watkin Jones have breached this, MGP as it seems to be a compelling solution, the latter as it doubled. Always learning. GLA

[thebigshortfella] 02/12/2017 11:49

steve3sandal - I agree. How much do you hold, if you don't mind me asking. Thanks.

[steve3sandal] 01/12/2017 22:40

The NHS scan backlog and misdiagnosis must have Medica pushing on an open door. Surprised there wasn’t a bigger pop today...though may take scribes a few days to connect the story. I really didn’t want any more but have topped up again.

[robmal] 01/12/2017 10:51

Some large trades going through today. Last trade was for 163,090 @ 220.00.

[cowlid] 01/12/2017 09:10

The Care Quality Commission are conducting a enquiry into a national backlog of unreported scans and x-rays, estimated to be 300,000. This follows news today from Portsmouth of a 20,000 backlog is chest x-rays that haven't been seen by a radiologist, with three subsequently found to show lung cancer.Worth pointing out that 3 out of 20,000 is an extremely low "error" rate (but dreadful for those three people), but more importantly from Medica's perspective there is no way that the NHS has capacity to deal with the volume of work (which is why there is a backlog).

[thebigshortfella] 29/10/2017 21:24

Dibbs - I agree. It will be very interesting.

Just in case you didn't know, Sharewatch who bought £9.5k worth back in April) mentioned that "often astute" Old Mutual now holds 17.4%, the MGP's high PE is "more than justified" due to the 20% compound growth expected over the next 3 years. Finally, they called MGP a "strong hold".

BTW You wouldn't happen to know when their next results are due? Thanks.

[dibbs] 28/10/2017 22:59

A nice run towards the end of this last week. It will be interesting to see if we continue to trade sideways or finally see further strength here? Low volumes this last week or so but from recent announcements institutions are buying and selling. Seems we need something of an overhang to clear, ideally coupled with news of strong trading, then more folk will see value here.

Dibbs

[albanyvillas] 25/10/2017 10:59

waaassssuuuuuooooopppppppp

[dibbs] 22/10/2017 21:37

Good post Velod. I think you have pretty much hit the nail on the head!

I bought MGP thinking it would be a nice long term hold but with the hope that the share price would have appreciated a little more than it has by now!

I bought around May when the chart looked pretty good and I thought there was some momentum evident but that soon fizzled out after my purchases!

With hindsight I was a little hasty in taking a position as the PE is pretty rich. I have decided that MGP has loads of positives and with the advancement of time, coupled with IMHO a greater risk of an upside earnings surprise than downside that I would stay put.

Hopefully future events here will make me a happier shareholder and persuade you that MGP is on the move!

Cheers

Dibbs

[thebigshortfella] 20/10/2017 23:54

velod - many thanks for this! Extremely interesting and (I hate to say it!) very perceptive analysis! I sent you a private message. Have a great weekend!

[velod] 20/10/2017 22:08

This post in response to The BigShortFella’s request to me on another forum and is in reply to BSFella.

Have no position in this share, nor intention to take one, but now it’s been brought to my attention might put it on a watchlist somewhere, out of sheer Nosey-Parker-interest on my part.

Hi BSFella,
Had the impression you were a micro-cap guy so surprised this is a quarter billion-pound MCap company.

As a trend follower, no I would not buy this, at this juncture, based solely on the share price action alone. Momentum is iffy; albeit with a recent bull trend initiated, but it’s yet to be established if THIS TIME it will hold and build. Can’t understand why as the company as distinct from the share price appears to be a right little belter.

Have access to the Piotroski F-Score and (if anyone hasn’t heard of that just Google) was gobsmacked at how MGP, the business, scored. It only goes and achieves top marks! Not only top marks but flying colours too, kind of top Marks!

The highest a company can achieve is 9 - and MGP is rated a right royal gold standard 9. You can’t get higher. And that tells me this is one well-run, mean machine business. That being the case, what the hell’s happened to the share price momentum?

I’m not built for fundamentals, but things like Return On Capital and ROE are excellent – no wonder it scored so highly on the F-Score. The business per se, independent of the share price rating, is a stonking belter!

So why am I not interested?

The share price soared until mid-summer. What happened at the height of summer? Because since then the share price has been unimpressive. Why has the market withdrawn its admiration by turning its back on the SP? And why that big retrace today, Friday? Perhaps I should read the posts below; somebody must have an idea.

Why has the market withdrawn its initial embrace? Is it the PE ratio? Does the market think the current PE ratio is unworthy and is holding back? It is above the market average but not that much, (Edit, Upon reflection, well - yes that much. It is a 'fair bit' above the average). Unless I trawled through analysts reports something about this share price level, irks the market.

Trendlines: It is currently on a little bull rally, but it’s been on and off all summer like that and looks disappointing to me. I, personally don’t trust the share price so wouldn’t take a long position. nor a short position because the share price has no real momentum for either strategy to be reliable. Until a clear trend breaks AND holds it’s a sit it out on the side-lines job for me with this one.

Great company. Rubbish share price momentum.

[scooper72] 20/10/2017 08:27

..oh. I have said that already. Sorry for the repetition

[scooper72] 20/10/2017 08:26

Thanks guys. It's a busy season for hospitals in A&E next 4-5 months.

[blueflex2] 19/10/2017 12:27

@thebigshortfella, I totally agree with you. Scooper72 time his trade well. November-December might be a buy period for MGP.

[albanyvillas] 19/10/2017 11:43

Once you pop. You can't stop.

[thebigshortfella] 18/10/2017 20:21

scooper72 - It looks like the timing of your trade was very good. MGP is nicely up. Hopefully we will see further forward momentum over coming weeks.