Mears Share Discussion Threads

[johndoe23] 09/8/2024 08:44

No volume even with excellent interims, so far under the radar

[johndoe23] 08/8/2024 19:03

Favourable coverage on stockopedia today. Nothing amazing but amber/green rating

[qs99] 08/8/2024 14:03

Thanks thebd11, genuinely don't see how "asylum" policy would do anything but go UP for volumes under Labour no?!

Either way, I'm happy to keep taking the 4+% yield as downside IMO is limited....DYOR

[basem1] 08/8/2024 13:51

Why would government asylum policy have a negative effect I wonder ?

[thebd11] 08/8/2024 13:43

Peel..."Mears (MER LN) (Hold TP 380.0p) Strong 1H24 performance: new guidance drives 9% FY24 revenue increase... 1H24 PBT was £30.5m (+44% YoY), which is slightly ahead of our estimate. Adjusted EPS rose 68% (organically) and DPS increased 28% to 4.75p. The company reported strong cash generation, with average net cash of £66m. There are no major surprises in the trading commentary. We expect investor focus is likely to be on the increased guidance (following another positive trading update in June). The company now anticipates FY24 revenue to be c.£1.1bn (versus our prior estimate of £1.0bn) and adjusted PBT to be £53-55m (versus our prior estimate of £50m). The outperformance is driven by the visibility through FY24 (most specifically the asylum seekers volumes). We increase our FY24E PBT forecast from £50m (cons: £50m) to £54m, to give EPS of 41.1p. It remains challenging to assess when the elevated contract volumes will normalise. However, we also increase our FY25E PBT estimate from £39.0m (cons: £38.7m) to £42m, to give EPS of 32.2p. The shares have drifted down on concerns regarding government asylum policy uncertainties and currently trade on 11.2x December 2026E EPS."

[qs99] 08/8/2024 10:05

Anyone got any broker views please? Thanks in advance.

[qs99] 08/8/2024 10:03

Some buying coming in now...

[johndoe23] 08/8/2024 08:52

T Clarke value outed in the end, hopefully the same here!

[dope007] 08/8/2024 08:49

A great set of results here. I don't hold any but do hold Kinovo in this sector and expect Kinovo to be taken out at some point

[qs99] 08/8/2024 08:25

I've added a fair few this morning DYOR

[qs99] 08/8/2024 08:17

Thanks team Mears. it just looks v.v. odd....govt spending in this area IMO should increase, Mears in a great position, over £1bn of revenues, great cash focus, yet shares just don't reflect the value, they don't have to be "highly" rated, but sitting on EV/EBIDA of <2 looks dozy IMO....DYOR

[basem1] 08/8/2024 08:15

Crazy price 350p I think I will add this price action today is just plain madness

[basem1] 08/8/2024 08:09

It is a lowly rated sector - high volumes of work for low margin I remember saying all those things about T Clarke years ago GFRD are my favourite pick along with Mears Solid but not exciting but at the moment a good place to park some cash

[johndoe23] 08/8/2024 08:08

QS, I am also scratching my head. I can only think some are put off by possible falling profits in the future? Say profits fell by 10%, this would still be tremendous value.Also not a great day to release results, fear back today in the markets.

[qs99] 08/8/2024 08:05

So market cap says £327m, net daily cash average 66m so EV 260m....we have EBITDA post IFRS of 69m and Net Cash flow from Op Act of 75m...so full year we have 140m-150m of EBTIDA post IFRS or Net cash flow from op Act vs EV £260m.

Decent yield, now increased, maybe more share buy-backs, what am I missing around the "value" proposition here?

DYOR

[johndoe23] 08/8/2024 07:15

Still too many sellers

[johndoe23] 08/8/2024 06:36

They keep giving caution of possible normalisation of revenues/profits going forward, but still looks way too cheap.FY earnings say 45p, on a PE of 10 that's 450p

[basem1] 08/8/2024 06:17

Wow better than anticipated. Should be good for a 25p increase I would think

[johndoe23] 07/8/2024 08:32

Exactly I still think there's an overhang here, once cleared should move up. PBT of 48m against a mcap of sub 300m is cheap

[basem1] 07/8/2024 08:28

Yes Helped myself to 10000 shares last night at 332.75 Thought these were cheap at 375p so delighted to be in down here at bargain level

[johndoe23] 07/8/2024 08:27

Decent buying thus far

[basem1] 06/8/2024 15:26

Sorry interims not a TU on Thursday

[basem1] 06/8/2024 15:24

Could it not fall on the February support line bang on where we are now ? TU Thursday should be fine given that it is only a month since the last positive comments

[beckaroo] 06/8/2024 15:07

Are they aiming to close that gap from January at about 310p? Hopefully tomorrow puts a stop to that.