Mckay Securities Share Discussion Threads

[pillion] 17/5/2011 22:19

Sky
I am no expert on charts
Just an observation

[skyship] 17/5/2011 15:14

Obviously I don't see it in the same bleak terms, especially when you read the content and tenor of the recent IMS.

To my mind the current share price already reflects any negativity.

[kenny] 17/5/2011 12:54

Constant selling over the last week suggests the results could be pretty dire. However, I am holding in the hope that the dividend is maintained albeit that must also be in doubt if vacancies have increased. Net debt has also increased to settle some of the swap contracts, so that increases interest payable.

All pretty depressing; only hope in the short term may be if someone bids for the entire company and that seems unlikely.

[skyship] 17/5/2011 09:26

Pillion - How does that chart function and what is your interpretation?

[pillion] 15/5/2011 12:33

Too early to buy just yet
No advice intended!

[skyship] 13/5/2011 07:34

Finals announced for Thursday 2nd June

[skyship] 11/5/2011 18:45

Can there be a more frustrating stock? If you know of one - don't tell me!

The sp, instead of breaking the downtrend, has fallen away again - hopefully for the last time. At least the downside looks limited - perhaps no more than 112p. So if our occasional buyer reappears, this could very quickly be 120p again and challenging that downtrend.

One can but live in hope....

[skyship] 04/5/2011 12:42

Good to see that 55k BUY today @ 119p.

Perhaps we'll see an upward breakout ahead of next month's figures. Certainly the blue chip properties are enjoying an excellent run with the REITs index now outperforming the FTSE100 by 10% this year.

The secondary/tertiary plays have been left well behind; so about time for a bit of catch-up...

[pillion] 17/4/2011 14:19

Gold Cross imminent ??

[lqs] 17/4/2011 13:59

"SteMiS - 8 Apr'11 - 11:48 - 354 of 359

Adjusting their half year balance sheet for subsequent movement on mark to market for hedges, basic NAV is 195p. LTV is 43% and yield is probably 7.0%+"


Thats why I bought some for my ISA on friday!!

[skyship] 15/4/2011 11:00

Welcome Enviro - certainly looks like a good buying day, but then, there have been many of those here, yet still they stay rooted to the bottom.

Patience needed...zzzzzzzzz. Roll on early June for the next set of numbers.

[envirovision] 15/4/2011 10:26

put some in isa today

[flying pig] 10/4/2011 18:06

Put it in ISA or SIPP and forget 12 months - then enjoy dividends and price rise.

So until MKS news let us just enjoy the sunshine......

[sleepy] 09/4/2011 23:54

Well at least the FD has gone

[skyship] 09/4/2011 14:40

So what is the issue here?

Sentiment is totally and utterly against MCKS because:

1. They are an ultra-cautious operation
2. They screwed up bigtime with their excessive hedging
3. They failed to sell properties ahead of or during the decline
4. They failed to buy properties at the bottom
5. They cut the dividend in 2009/10 from 14.2p to 8.2p

Basically they've sat on their butts appaently doing not a lot, whereas more adventurous souls were out there trading.

That said, the Market is overdoing the penalty. With an historic 7% yield and a 38% NAV discount, the stock is too cheap as it lays it open to predator action.

All power to the predator say I....

[stemis] 08/4/2011 11:48

So what is the issue here?

Adjusting their half year balance sheet for subsequent movement on mark to market for hedges, basic NAV is 195p. LTV is 43% and yield is probably 7.0%+.

Doesn't seem much downside, short of a property collapse.

[skyship] 08/4/2011 09:32

SteMis - this is what they said last year in the Chairman's Statement:

"The reduced level of dividend recommended by the Board takes into
account the impact of property disposals on the level of earnings
from the portfolio and uncertainty over the pace of economic
recovery. As noted at the half year stage, it is the Board's
intention to re-base the dividend this year to establish a
sustainable level of distribution to shareholders on the basis that
occupier markets begin to improve, whilst continuing to meet the REIT
regulations."

Frankly, impossible to call, especially when you then look at the Earnings/Share statement in Note 5 to the Interims:



They will make their decision upon the basis of the message they wish to communicate. If they are worried that a predator may pounce due to the excessive NAV discount, they may want to assist the shares. In which case they could easily part way restore the total dividend to, say, 10p/share. That 8.5% yield would certainly produce a bounce....

[stemis] 07/4/2011 17:34

Are there any market expectation for dividends this year? Excluding revaluations, profits on sale of assets and P/L on mark to market on hedges, they seem to make earnings of about 13p per year. They are required to distribute 90% of qualifying income profits each year. Last year they distributed 8.2p.

[skyship] 06/4/2011 18:32

Ah! - looks as though our mystery buyer has returned again, hoovering up 100k @ 116p. He has been remarkably patient, but with the Finals in early June he needs to step on the gas.

Of course you only need 1.39m before you have to declare a 3% stake - so perhaps we might see a declaration any day now. My money is still on CIC....

[skyship] 30/3/2011 11:41

Looked to make a small top-up but could only get 50k @ 118.5p!!!

Good to see another genuine chunky buy...

[sleepy] 29/3/2011 21:17

Well nibbled!

[badtime] 29/3/2011 18:54

Nibbled on a few

[skyship] 28/3/2011 18:05

Pleased to see some volume here today. The sooner that tap has been absorbed the sooner we can start to make some progress toward that 150p target...

[skyship] 28/3/2011 10:19

120p is the pivotal point for MCKS. Looks to me as though the SMAs/EMAs are again converging for an important cross – just as they did in Apr'10. This time they could be signalling an approaching break of the 15month downtrend.

The share price has effectively stabilised for the past 6months, trading in narrow margins either side of that 120p pivot.

The breakout out of the downtrend could be occasioned by corporate action here or elsewhere in the sector; or by the approach of the June Finals.

The break will of course be underwritten and justified by the value of a 6.8% yield and a 38.5% NAV discount.

Personally I've been adding at just under 120p, looking for a 150p trading target for a 25% gain over the next 3months. Of course, a bid could double that!! Does look to be an extremely attractive Risk/Reward play.