Mckay Securities Share Discussion Threads

[crawford] 09/2/2011 16:40

Yes, looks like we have a big buyer here and the cat's out of the bag now...

[skyship] 09/2/2011 16:36

Another 267k traded today!

Someone is accumulating.....about time this was taken out and shareholders put out of their misery.

I'll accept 165p........+ the Final divi of course.

[skyship] 07/2/2011 17:51

So, what do we make of those two 100k trades reported as:

100k sold @ 112p
100k sold @ 113p

# They were 6minutes apart so NOT a rollover

# They most certainly aren't both sales unless the MM has a large and incomplete BUY order on his books

# Most likely is two separate parties - one a genuine sale - one a genuine buy

Whatever the true interpretation, it can only be positive.......we may have bottomed out!!

[leoboy] 04/2/2011 09:20

SteMiS - yes see

& 684 rgds Leoboy .

[stemis] 03/2/2011 21:24

Can you claim the 20% back in an ISA?

[zeppo] 03/2/2011 17:58

SteMis

Less 20% witholding tax for those who do not hold in an Isa.

z

[stemis] 03/2/2011 17:00

Doesn't seem to be any forecasts for the company. Interim dividend was held at 2.7p so is it likely the final dividend will be held at 5.5p? If so we have a yield of 7.3%.

[alanji] 18/1/2011 12:41

The swaps have always been a headache and are what are holding the price back but ydderf is being rather disingenuous.
In the year to 31 March 2009 the company took (another) gamble on interest rates and renegotiated its swaps to include what is known as a "collar and cap" - basically interest rates have a floor (the collar) and a ceiling (the floor). The rates were from 3.06% to 5% With the low interest rates the co has been paying the collar rate of 3.06%. The collar and cap expires next year and the rate will be 4.86%. I think!!!! As I have posted before trying to work out the effect is an absolute nightmare and I have spent hours trying to produce some realistic numbers - got a headache and failed.
The comfort is that these swaps will unwind - average length now just over 5 years - the liability will disappear, although part is a 'real' cost because the value of the swaps exceed the loans. Of course if interest rates rise (and inflation is up again, today) the liability will also decrease and the company could even benefit from the swaps! Most of the £32m in the balance sheet will never be paid and would only become a liability if the company ceased trading.
Fundamentally the company is profitable and the discount to nav is huge. It may take some time but value will out at some stage.

[skyship] 18/1/2011 12:32

Boystown - don't worry, ydderf usually goes a little ott when he doesn't like something.

He IS right that the derivatives have been a total disaster for MCKS, but the point now to bear in mind is that the bad news is now over - all the downside is already in the price - and some!

Interest rate may hold at these levels awhile longer; but they sure as hell ain't going any lower; they're only going up - though when is the subject of daily political and economic debate.

[boystown] 18/1/2011 11:44

ydderF

"the actual liability dwarfs the property business"

Can you exoplain this please? The NAV last time was £74.7m taking full account of interest rate derivatives - and there's abs no danger of breaching LTV covenants AFAICS???

[crawford] 17/1/2011 15:12

Still falling, my dividend automatically reinvested last week. That chart decline looks linear to me fhmktg.

[fhmktg] 17/1/2011 14:52

Thats a sharp drop off - anything in the air?

[fhmktg] 17/1/2011 10:50

Any views on MCKS for this year?
Can't see much improvement in the commercial property market in the short term, but IMHO mcks remains a solid part of my portfolio with good properties in an important part of the UK.( Solid divi of course!)

[skyship] 21/12/2010 13:56

Another 70k hoovered up @ 118p yesterday. Could we soon be seeing the end of the loose stock, if so expect a short-term rally to resistance @ 130p/132p level.

[topvest] 18/12/2010 11:55

I expect interest rates to rise in 2011 at some point as inflation is getting a hold. As soon as that starts to happen their swaps will start to look more attractive. May add some more here early in 2011. It's a good company.

[skyship] 18/12/2010 10:50

That's the way I read it & this extract from the Finance section of the Interims seems to confirm:

"As forward swap rates continued to fall over the period, the mark to
market value of these instruments as at 30 September 2010 declined in
value by a further GBP14.14 million to a negative value of GBP36.67 million.
When financial markets begin to assume higher forward rates, there will
be an increase in the value of these instruments, reversing the negative
movements seen to date."

MCKS has been a lamentable performer throughout 2010, but could well be a good BUY for 2011. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see a bid, so becoming the second REIT to be taken out - the first being Rugby earlier this year. Currently they are on a 7% yield on the much reduced dividend; and are at a 28% discount to the conventional NAV and 47% to the EPRA NAV.

[stemis] 18/12/2010 09:17

Anyone know how the accounting for these interest rate hedges works? By far the largest liability is the Forward Start Interest Rate Swaps at £28.4 million. this is based on £115m hedged with an average maturity of 5.86 years. Simple arithmetic shows that £115m x 5.86 yrs x 4.22% = £28.4m. The 4.22% compares to 4.86% average rate on the swaps i.e they are assuming a 0.64% market rate of interest. Hard to see that going much lower so surely this is the worst its going to be. Presumably each year they pay off a chunk of this liability.

[skyship] 17/12/2010 16:29

At long last a serious trade - someone buying 100k @ 116p. It really is about time someone like CIC, FCPT, IRET even, frankly anyone....started to accumulate a stake here.

[meadow50] 01/12/2010 13:12

xd 2.70p today

[lordoflords7] 24/11/2010 07:27

A dozy 6 months, interest rates instruments still a detriment to earnings... Would love to see some in depth analysis here...

[jonwig] 21/11/2010 08:34

zeppo - in an ISA you get it re-credited. Is there any way you can engineer that?

[zeppo] 05/11/2010 17:46

Interims 24th November.

Some 'Ordinary' shareholders (including myself) have to pay a witholding tax of 20% so the divi is less than it appears.

I am sticking with my small investment for the divis (or what's left of them after the 'Witholding Tax)


z

[fhmktg] 05/11/2010 14:12

I've bought back in after being out for 12 months. Any views on prospects? I've had a good regards for the management here over the years and seen the divi as pretty secure.
Views welcomed