Mckay Securities Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 03/6/2010 12:26

Behind evryone's estimate surely! Judging from the IPD stats and the quality of the portfolio the property valuation seems overly conservative. I'd like to know what sort of bids on the portfolio they have been turning down.

[tiltonboy] 03/6/2010 10:03

Oriel have an add recommendation, citing an NAV that was behind their estimate of 245p.

[crawford] 03/6/2010 09:55

Good results IMHO.

[zeppo] 03/6/2010 07:57

20% tax is usually taken off the divi. Disappointing to me.

z

[skyship] 03/6/2010 07:37

The dividend is much as anticipated, but frankly I am unable to understand the undervaluation of the property portfolio. With the NAV now at 234p the share price @ 148p is at a 37% discount - so sure they are cheap for a REIT, but I firmly believe they are actually much cheaper than these figures state!

They seem to have spent the past year in masterful inactivity, other than declining unsolicited offers for some of their properties.

Seems as though only a bid will reveal the value here; but that has to be an unlikely proposition these days.

[skyship] 28/5/2010 16:00

That break to the downside looks to have been a beartrap. Low volume and seemingly just one AT seller @ 137.5p. The cheapest offer appears not to have fallen below 145p - perhaps 142p intraday.

By my book the range support remains intact and next Thursday's Finals will dictate future direction. I still suggest a sharp jump - provided of course we are not in the middle of another 3%/day slump:

[crawford] 14/5/2010 10:42

Yes, still in the trading range, some day we might just break out to the upside!

[skyship] 14/5/2010 10:10

So it was, as the PLUS trades reveal:

11/05/2010 16:23:59 146.49 500 O 732.45
11/05/2010 16:21:36 146.49 500 O 732.45
11/05/2010 15:53:51 146.49 2,000 O 2,929.80

Sorry Crawford, you were correct. Mms balancing their books provided an opportunitic entry point. Good to see that the 145p support held yet again!

[dansue] 12/5/2010 22:38

I bought some yesterday just before the bell @ 146.49 so the drop was real.

max

[skyship] 12/5/2010 17:29

Sp wasn't for real. When you see something like that, take a look at the Trades. It reveals whether the move was a real one or not. The same happened (or rather didn't happen!) to IFD the other day.

[crawford] 11/5/2010 16:52

Quite a dip at close.

[janeann] 28/4/2010 14:53

2 sizeable trades today; sells preumably but no impact on price.

[crawford] 26/4/2010 08:07

results 3rd June

[skyship] 17/3/2010 18:40

210k bought today:

a. that is serious volume for MCKS
b. where did it come from?
c. where are the corresponding sales?

The large trade are reported as NT trades. Not exactly sure what they are, but herewith the decsriptions for "N" & for "T":

'N' Non Protected Portfolio
A non-protected portfolio transaction or a fully disclosed portfolio transaction. Normally a transaction of a number of stocks dealt with by one market maker at an agreed discount to the market price.

'T' If reporting a single protected transaction.
A protected transaction occurs when a large order is going through the market. The buyer (or seller) may wish to keep the order anonymous from the rest of the market as the size of the order could greatly alter the price of the stock. With a protected transaction, the dealer will put the trade through in small quantities rather than knock the whole order out in one hit. The entire transaction is reported once the deal is completed. The LSE is notified at the start and at the end of the transaction. However, the market as a whole isn't told until the end, thus the order is protected.

[skyship] 17/3/2010 15:15

good to see some concerted buying here today - 69k so far - but hasn't moved the share price a single jot.....yet!

[skyship] 07/3/2010 09:21

The narrow 145p/162p trading range we've been stuck in for the past 6 months is actually a fair reflection of what has been happening throughout the sector - see this overlay with BLND & LAND. Unfortuately can't show the Real Estate Index as that has a fault at the moment.

The MCKS trading range is just more marked than others in the sector, with the multiple support @ 145p providing ever more confidence for top-ups on dull days:

[topvest] 06/3/2010 08:31

Yes, this looks very good value. Would buy some more, but got enough!

[ards] 05/3/2010 17:59

recent letter in IC suggesting that nav may be as high as 275 or 45% discount with a ltv of 46% and yield of 5.6
would have thought 200 a reasonable 3 month target

[alanji] 24/2/2010 08:20

Fraid not, Sky. It is 90% of what would have been the taxable property income (pre REIT) which seems to be quite a bit less than the eps. According to the FD capital allowances account for a lot of the difference and I am afraid my tax consultancy days are too long ago for me to be able to calculate, or even estimate, what they might be. For 2009 the eps was 20.38 and the 'REIT' profit 15.89pps (div of 14.3p/90%). There is no saying similar proportions will apply to 2010 and the board may distribute more than the minimum (as they have previously) - hence my comment on pessimism/optimism.

[skyship] 23/2/2010 18:07

Alan - surely limited to just 10% less, ie 90% of the EPS?

[alanji] 23/2/2010 15:45

As you know, I gave up trying to calculate the yield but the minimum REIT distribution is quite a bit less than the eps. So the actual div and yield will depend on the board's outlook - pessimistic/optimistic. So far it has tended towards pessimistic - and paying the minimum REIT dividend in recent times.

[skyship] 23/2/2010 14:08

Likewise edited mine - sounded flippant - wasn't meant to be!!

5.5%!! That's 8.5p - a bit on the parsimonious side I would have thought - suggests just 9.5p EPS...

[tiltonboy] 23/2/2010 13:42

SKYSIP,

edited.

Oriel are forecasting a 5.5% yield.

[skyship] 23/2/2010 13:28

TILTS - Glad Oriel are suggesting ADD - I recently did so & will do so again sub-150p.

Do they suggest what the Final divi might be, ergo the current yield. Also an NAV estimate perhaps?