Mccoll's Retail Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 03/12/2018 12:11

Liberum seem to be saying that McColl's woes are short term and due to two specific reasons. They are also saying that McColl's is well managed.

Finally Liberum seem to be indicating that the dividend maybe reduced by around 25%, this would still leave McColl's on an dividend yield of 8%.

[loganair] 03/12/2018 12:07

Analysts at Liberum cut their target price on British convenience shop and newsagent operator McColl's Retail on Monday, citing persistent challenges in the group's supply chain.

Liberum dropped its target price on McColl's to 100p from its previous 150p mark after McColl's fourth-quarter update outlined continued supply chain disruptions that, "unfortunately", led the broker to lower its adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 22%-24%.

The broker highlighted the collapse of Palmer and Harvey and the group's transition to Morrisons supply as causing much of McColl's troubles in 2018.

Liberum, which maintained its 'hold' rating on McColl's, said the supply woes had also resulted in operational disruptions, a slower than planned roll-out of its Safeway ranges and some delay in buying negotiations.

When discussing the numbers, Liberum said: "FY18E net debt is a beat reflecting good working capital management and greater sale and leaseback proceeds than we anticipated. There is no guidance on the full year dividend at this stage, but we prudently lower our forecasts broadly in line with our EBITDA cuts."

[aleman] 03/12/2018 10:49

Let's see. LfL improved marginally from slightly negative to zero. EBITDA looks like its going to be £35m, from £16m at half way, and slightly higher next year. Debt is lower than expected thanks to a profit on disposals. So the news is things are getting slightly better and might show a slight improvement next year so the shares fall 30%. Yeah - that makes great sense. I've bought in again.

[john09] 03/12/2018 09:56

Woah, cheap

[loganair] 03/12/2018 09:54

I think the massive drop in the share price is over done due to fear. As we know price falls or rises often over react and go too far then have to pull back once reason starts to reinsert itself.

[loganair] 03/12/2018 09:34

Mccoll’s, which has more than 1,600 convenience stores and newsagents around the UK, said full-year profit would be about £35million, instead of £44million as it previously expected.

Today’s slump comes as the firm saw almost £150million wiped off its market value over the summer when it said half-year profits had nearly halved amid an ‘unprecedented supply chain disruption’.

The plus points are reduction in debt and removed 66 under-performing newsagents and smaller convenience stores.

[bingham] 03/12/2018 09:31

I didn`t like the sale and leaseback bit.

[danny baker] 03/12/2018 08:21

The 25% drop in the shareprice on the back of a trading statement that doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know is astonishing. I can't believe people were expecting a significant improvement in trading therefore it can only be the gloomy wording of the statement and doubts about the final dividend which have caused the sharp mark down in the share price.

[danny baker] 03/12/2018 08:05

I'm confused by the 4th quarter update. The ebitda indication of £35m for the year is higher than the £32m they were suggesting at the interim stage but the tone of the statement is downbeat. The warning about next year not seeing any improvement could be an indicator that the final dividend might be reduced to 3.4p in line with the interim dividend. Still a healthy yield though. As always MCLS is up against relentless competition.

[philanderer] 10/11/2018 00:09

SHARE PUNT OF THE WEEK: Grocery retail minnow McColl's has just revived the Safeway brand

[totalgeek69] 06/11/2018 10:09

Morrison's announced its wholesale operations are doing well... Mcolls was mentioned in the report.

[peterpan26] 29/10/2018 15:00

Jonathan Miller never was ceo material and management is weak. James Lancaster new how to run an operation but created an excuse to sell all his shares...at twice the current price. Now Simon Fuller cfo is leaving Jonathan Miller is out of his depth. new ceo please

[danny baker] 18/10/2018 14:14

My expectations for the trading statement will be for negative single digit LFLs. Overall I think the performance will be patchy with some stores improving and others suffering from competition from reinvigorated Co-ops and reduced footfall on the high streets. I've noticed petrol stations have all been spending a lot of money upgrading their shops into full-blown convenience stores with Subways, Costa coffee machines etc.

I think it all makes for a very competitive background for poor old McColl's.

[ed 123] 16/10/2018 22:45

Nisa supplied? Yes, and when those Co-op stores are migrated onto the Morrisons contract cost and quality should both improve.

The trading update will be interesting. I can't predict how it will read. If it shows some improvement during the most recent period, then good. But I just don't know what to expect.

[loganair] 16/10/2018 19:19

The Co-Op stores McColl's bought are still being supplied by Nisa until 2020 and they are also around 15% bigger in square foot terms then the average McColl's convenience store.

[ed 123] 16/10/2018 17:51

Hi Loganair.

I continue to have concern (although no longer a holder of McColls) about the profitability of the recently acquired Co-op stores. The combination of higher prices and lower quality, compared to when they were Co-op owned, will not have been welcomed by customers. Also there have been some supply/stocking problems. With the ex-Co-op staff on the same Co-op terms, I'm not convinced these stores were a sensible buy for McColls. In fact I view it as a bad mistake.

Moving on, there was a strange closing auction today. Why would someone wait for the closing auction to pay 130p for shares when they could have bought in the market for 124p or thereabouts?

Someone else appears to have sold 22k shares at under 122p (late reported). More shares to be available to buyers at 124p tomorrow?

Full year trading update should be released on 3rd December.

[loganair] 15/10/2018 21:26

My local McColl's is a news agent. When I was young it was very busy opening 07.00 to 20.00 Mon to Sat and 09.00 to 14.00 Sun.

However in the last few years a Coop, Waitrose and Aldi have opened all with in 100yds of the McColl's and now days it is open 08.00 to 18.00 Mon to Fri, 08.00 to 12.00 Sat and closed Suns. Sadly I hardly ever see a customer in the store any more.

As I have written a number of times I think McColl's need to close ASAP as many of their 335 News Agents as they can as I can see many of them being loss making.

McColl's have most newsagents in the East of England region and least in Wales followed by the North East.

[loganair] 15/10/2018 21:08

DB - Number of stores in regional order with the highest first:

South East, North West, Scotland, South West, East of England, Yorkshire and Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, North East, Wales and finally London with just 25 stores.

[danny baker] 15/10/2018 14:02

Am I right in thinking McColls has more shops on the Western side of the UK? If so it won't have done so well from selling cold drinks given October's warm weather in the South East. Competition must still be very tough except where it is trading unopposed. Maybe Royal Mail's trading statement has hurt sentiment with MCLS's post offices.

[danny baker] 15/10/2018 13:51

He's probably the second richest man in Estonia now.

[loganair] 10/10/2018 20:53

I'm still thinking about the richest man in Estonia who bought a nearly 10% stake in McColl's a little over a year ago at 275p per share.

[wunderbar] 10/10/2018 20:30

Surprised no comments re today's share price fall of 9% - down 12p @ 124p, dropped like a stone in late afternoon trading on very light volume. Given fact there's been no news to accompany this fall looks highly suspicious to me. A sudden decline of this magnitude normally follows a profit warning - maybe news is about to break or perhaps it's just a freak anomaly which will correct itself tomorrow. Whichever way you look at it it seems very odd. I must admit following September's rather bland Q3 update I expected share price to trundle along between 150-160p, instead it's dropped 20% in the space of a month despite the positive spin coming from McColls re revamped food range, improved store layout and new distribution channel. Needless to say the market remains decidedly unimpressed. Here's hoping sentiment improves before xmas.

[loganair] 06/10/2018 19:49

McColl's still has 332 Newsagents, which at best just break even these days. I would like to see the number of Newsagents dramatically reduced.

[loganair] 06/10/2018 19:33

McColl’s is back on the acquisition trail after a challenging year following the collapse of Palmer & Harvey.


The retailer’s chief executive Jonathan Miller told the IGD conference last week that it hopes to grow its estate in the coming year, as well as expanding its convenience offering and food proposition. McColl’s has access to Morrisons’ Safeway own-brand range and is strengthening its fresh food credentials.

“We are already seeing an increase in basket size,” Miller said.

He told delegates that the company, which has around 1,300 stores, sees food-to-go as a “massive opportunity” and has recently appointed Matt Cundrick to champion the category. McColl’s currently has 23 Subway franchises.

Miller added that its investment in its estate continues, with 80 store refreshes completed, following a trial last year.

“It’s a full makeover with more refrigeration, decluttered aisles, more customer-friendly counter and new ranges such as healthy eating,” he said.

Next on the cards for McColl’s is a review of ranges and prices, according to customer director Tim Fairs. He said the retailer will profile every store and have unique SKUs for every outlet.

It also plans to strengthen its evening meal proposition and introduce a meal deal programme.

McColl’s will upgrade its website to highlight offers and feature recipes and blogs and will have a presence on all social media platforms for the first time.

[josephrobert] 28/8/2018 17:20

FWI looking at the price action today I reckon that was the bottom on Friday.