Mayan Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tidy 2] 16/1/2018 08:28

Zak MirRT AlignResearch "Key sentence for us in this mornings option awards at Mayan Energy #MYN - "Vesting of the New Options is conditional on Mayan achieving production of 500 barrels of oil per day (net to Mayan)" Excluding Deloro/Asphalt Ridge production. Shows confidence in t...

[tidy 2] 16/1/2018 08:20

I suspect the first well has given them a confidence boost

[brasso3] 16/1/2018 08:19

Lift off!!!

[brasso3] 16/1/2018 08:14

Now 1m at 0.827p

[jungmana] 16/1/2018 08:07

5.21p target. Thats more like it :-)

[brasso3] 16/1/2018 07:58

I can see this touching 1p today.

500 BOPD is achievable or they would not have aligned there options with that number. I think most would not have complained if this criteria had not have even bee included in the triggering of these options. Really confident in this one now.

[grannyboy] 16/1/2018 07:53

fairenough thanks for putting up the align research...

Looking good..

[someuwin] 16/1/2018 07:44

Eddie Gonzalez @TexasEddieG 9 minutes ago

Our big beautiful 1000 bopd plant coming together right on schedule... this is the true definition of teamwork! I SERIOUSLY love my job!!!! #MYN #PETROTEQ #DELORO #TEAMWORK #BLACKGOLD #ILOVEMYJOB #EVERFORWARD #MAYANISHERETOSTAY!!! #NEXTLEVEL #BRINGITON!

[fairenough11] 16/1/2018 07:43

@TexasEddieG --this guy is a one off.He deserves to succeed.He has massive skin in the game and his aims are aligned with ours.Very refreshing for AIM.
#MYN

[brasso3] 16/1/2018 07:42

It just gets better and better.

Really impressed with that RNS. 1.1p is very fair to shareholders.

[fairenough11] 16/1/2018 07:39

" With this change, our sum of the parts valuation for Mayan Energy has increased to £65.45 million and which suggests a price of 5.21p per shares on a fully diluted basis per the table below:"

[fairenough11] 16/1/2018 07:38

MAYAN ENERGY – INCREASED NPV VALUE POST ASPHALT RIDGE NEWS
January 15, 2018 | Posted by admin



An operations update from Mayan Energy yesterday brought good news from Asphalt Ridge, the Utah heavy oil sands project which is being developed by TSX-listed Petroteq Energy Inc. Mayan is a 17.6% shareholder in Deloro Energy LLC which has entered a joint venture with Petroteq acquiring a 49% stake in Asphalt Ridge for US$10 million, in staged payments.

The project consists of a small-scale mine and a bitumen extraction plant using Petroteq’s highly successful patented technology. The material being mined is very close to the surface and has 8-12% oil saturation. The processing plant has previously worked in the range of range of 276 – 450 bopd and is currently being moved onto the actual mine site and upgraded to initially produce 1,000 bopd (86 bopd net to Mayan) and subsequently 5,000 bopd (430 bopd net to Mayan). At this stage, all indications point to the 1,000 bopd plant being commissioned in February 2018 with a defined developed plan to produce 5,000+ bopd in 2019.

Investors have just learnt that all the foundation work has been completed and that the assembly of the main structure has commenced. Already the vertical columns are in place and important items on the critical path such as power and enlarged distillation column are being dealt with in a timely fashion.

Completion of testing and analysis of the oil product has indicated a high range of diesel organics. The final product is a mix of bitumen and solvent with a 16-18 °API, very little sulphur and metals and which makes it highly acceptable to local refineries. In this latest announcement, importantly, the board drew attention to the possibility of this product attracting a premium price to the West Texas Intermediate grade status benchmark (although in our model we have continued to used 90% of WTI to maintain our conservative analysis).

At the same time, the Directors also highlighted that given the general increase in oil prices that ‘netbacks’ (which is the gross profit per barrel of oil produced by an oil and gas company) could now be as much as US$35 + per barrel, compared to the US$15-20 that were reported when this deal was first announced in November 2017.

It does look as though rapid progress is being made at Asphalt Ridge in reassembling and enlarging the processing plant. We have reworked our NPV figures for the Asphalt Ridge project over the next thirty years, using the lower US corporate tax rate of 15% going forward and our WTI price deck with the price rising from US$63.00 in 2018 and averaging US$70.42 over the period 2018 – 2023 (with the 10% discount to this as stated already). Net result is a new NPV (at a heavy 12% discount rate) of US$452.37 million and where Mayan’s interest equates to US$39.01 million.

Previously we had further risked this NPV(12) valuation by 50% however, given the progress that has been made on the ground and the well-defined plans to substantially further boost production, we have now chosen to now reduce this to a 25% risked haircut giving a new value of $29.25m. With this change, our sum of the parts valuation for Mayan Energy has increased to £65.45 million and which suggests a price of 5.21p per shares on a fully diluted basis per the table below:



We make the point that the risked NPV of 5.21p compares with a current stock price of 0.81p and thus there remains a very material disjoint to the fundamental value that we see within Mayan’s portfolio relative to the current market price. In effect the remainder of the company’s portfolio (including Stockdale, Forest Hill & Zink Ranch fields) are being ascribed large negative values which to us makes no sense given the progress that is being made towards production. We deem the Asphalt Ridge stake alone to be worth 1.69p per share – twice the current stock price.

At the current price of 0.81p we remain highly positive on Mayan Energy and reiterate our 2.1p near term price target.

DISCLOSURE & RISK WARNING

A Director of Align Research Ltd & the Company hold positions in Mayan Energy and are bound to Align Research’s company dealing policy ensuring open and adequate disclosure. Full details can be found on our website here (“Legals”).

This is a marketing communication and cannot be considered independent research. Nothing in this report should be construed as advice, an offer, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities by us. As we have no knowledge of your individual situation and circumstances the investment(s) covered may not be suitable for you. You should not make any investment decision without consulting a fully qualified financial advisor.

Your capital is at risk by investing in securities and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. The marketability of some of the companies we cover is limited and you may have difficulty buying or selling in volume. Additionally, given the smaller capitalisation bias of our coverage, the companies we cover should be considered as high risk.

This financial promotion has been approved by Align Research Limited.

[jungmana] 16/1/2018 07:32

And the 500bopd excludes production from Deloro ( our venture with petroteq)

[grannyboy] 16/1/2018 07:23

When I first saw the words options granted I thought here we go again bod filling their boots, but these only vest when they get to 500 bopd, and at 1.1p...

So that's fair enough in my mind....Let's get those w/o's going!!!

[jungmana] 16/1/2018 07:22

Very fair issue of options at 1.1p and 500bopd being met.

[jutah] 16/1/2018 05:06

I don’t own any shares of Mayan Energy but I do have a fair amount in Petroteq and am very pleased to see this deal come together.

[someuwin] 15/1/2018 21:11

Charlie Wood‏ @charlieawood 5 minutes ago

Plant coming together at Asphalt Ridge and fabulous unseasonal mild weather here in Utah #MYN #Petroteq

[brasso3] 15/1/2018 18:46

On the 2nd Jan the moving averages were as follows:-

25 DMA - 0.61p
50 DMA - 0.54p
200 DMA - 0.83p

10 trading days later they are at:-

25 DMA - 0.63p
50 DMA - 0.61p
200 DMA - 0.70p

With a strong couple of days the Golden Cross will play out by Monday IMO.

[brasso3] 15/1/2018 18:36

All depends what the share price does in the next couple of days. If it holds in the 0.8p - 0.9p range then the 50 DMA should cross the 200 DMA in the next 5 - 6 trading sessions. Then we have lift off!

[tidy 2] 15/1/2018 18:27

Long term golden cross is certainly on and short term. 1.75 to 2p+ take your pick.

[highly geared] 15/1/2018 18:18

Golden cross ; ultra bullish if it occurs and usually followed by a strong upward move.

[113mike] 15/1/2018 18:11

then what?

[brasso3] 15/1/2018 17:41

The 50 DMA should cross the 200 DMA at some point this week.

[2prsimo] 15/1/2018 17:22

Strong finish - the mm's could be on the run a bit here you know

[jungmana] 15/1/2018 17:16

I agree . Very bullish close