Marwyn Value Investors Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 15/3/2017 09:20

would presumably adjust valuation to account for debt?

[hugepants] 15/3/2017 09:11

Interesting potential valuation. ZEG up 9% today and now has market cap of £250M

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EXPANSIÓN published yesterday that a valuation of about 750 million euros is being considered by Telecable.

[spectoacc] 15/3/2017 09:02

I guess the usual question with MVI of where the money ends up - ZEG surely likely to do another deal with the proceeds, so MVI a further step removed. But has to be a limit to discount to NAV it can trade at.

Surprised at GLOO, has been a complete zombie.

[mad foetus] 15/3/2017 09:00

Could cause a big uplift to the share price here and they must be thinking of winding up GLOO as it has been around for a couple of years now without a deal.

[spectoacc] 15/3/2017 08:16

Interesting news (or possible news) from ZEG. Has pushed it up a bit on a 7p spread, so have piled into loads more MVI - available at 135.00001p after the big sells of 2 weeks ago (clearly an overhang). MVI is 46% ZEG.

[gleach23] 01/3/2017 12:04

Yup - could do with some decent results from ZEG - finals due within a week or 2 I believe

[spectoacc] 01/3/2017 11:30

FTSE highs, MVI naff. Worse - some large trades gone through as low as 135p.

[gleach23] 16/1/2017 11:45

BCA having another go at 200p currently

[spectoacc] 13/1/2017 13:17

Well spotted, wonder what those are about. Probably reported from a few days ago.

[mad foetus] 13/1/2017 12:44

Some big trades today. Let's hope for a good year.

[gleach23] 08/1/2017 12:09

Tick ups for BCA and ZEG on Fri. Start of a turn up for both of them with any luck.

Meanwhile, bid speculation hovering over Northgate with Redde and BCA potential suitors -

[spectoacc] 04/1/2017 08:31

Happy to sit on it for the divi here (not the MVIR's mind!).

[gleach23] 03/1/2017 12:46

Good to see some signs of life here - I'd hope for a swift 30p re-rate if it can gain a little traction

[davebowler] 30/11/2016 10:31

Zeus on BCA;
BCA has delivered a strong set of results that are 5% ahead of our forecast at the adjusted EPS level. Strong growth has been made across all four divisions leading to an impressive +31% increase in adjusted EBITDA. Our EPS assumptions remain unchanged, and we are comfortable at the top end of the consensus range. We continue to believe BCA remains well positioned as an attractive structural growth play and is underpinned by a solid dividend yield.

§ H1 results: BCA has delivered strong results, which were 5% ahead of our forecast at the adjusted EPS level. The Group has delivered an impressive 31% YOY EBITDA growth driven by strong organic growth and the successful integration of acquisitions. Cash conversion was 116% and net debt on track vs. our FY assumptions. The interim dividend was +10% and in line with our expectations.
§ Key performance drivers: UK Remarketing was a strong performance with core volumes +8.4% (including SMA) producing YOY EBITDA growth of 23.4%. International Remarketing saw volumes +5.7% YOY with FX rates providing a 11% favourable movement to reported results vs. the prior period. Revenue per vehicle were +19.9% YOY driving revenues +26.5% and EBITDA +33.3%. WBAC continued to deliver strong volume growth ahead of our expectations, which was running at 13.3% during the period, driving revenues +14.3% and EBITDA +6.0%. Acquisitions have been integrated well via Automotive Services, with management also taking decisive action to drive enhanced profitability namely via UK logistics. Group costs were broadly in line with our expectations.
§ Forecast assumptions: We are maintaining our headline EPS forecasts on the back of these results. We have increased volumes in the UK, albeit this is largely offset by slightly higher depreciation and interest cost. We remain comfortable with our assumptions at the upper end of the consensus range.
§ Investment view: We remain comfortable with our original investment thesis based on the underlying performance of the business. We continue to believe the growth potential is significant from here across all divisions, especially in Europe in future years. We continue to see BCA as attractive critical infrastructure as it now touched over 3.5m vehicles in the UK supply chain alone, and would expect to see continued growth under most post Brexit scenarios. With an attractive dividend yield of 4% following some share price weakness, we would expect the shares to perform well given the attractive structural growth opportunities.

[spectoacc] 30/11/2016 08:40

Thanks @gleach

Lol MVIR - 135/145 now.

[gleach23] 30/11/2016 08:14

BCA interims well received by the market so far this morning - currently up 4.4%

[spectoacc] 30/11/2016 08:11

MVIR now listed, 110/120, about right I'd say, if not a bit high. Peeved that the co has wasted money on this corporate action (and the cost of another listing/more complicated shareholder structure), but also quite pleased so many took it up - though they're mad to have done so. An element of "buyer beware" but also not convinced the co should be giving people the choice of being suckered.

And suckered is how I see it - at least 5 years until any payout expected, during which time the ord holders will have received over 41p in dividends, and that's without compounding.

Any forced seller of MVIR is going to have a hell of a job.

[mad foetus] 28/11/2016 14:45

BCA going great guns today

[gleach23] 25/11/2016 14:45

Is the feeling here that we still have a seller? Could present an interesting dynamic if the BCA results are good next Wed (on top of today's RNS re NAV increase).

[spectoacc] 25/11/2016 14:39

Can't imagine there'd be many buyers! Tho feel for anyone who didn't read it properly.

[joe say] 25/11/2016 13:36

Can you imagine the spread on those given the likely lack of a market?

[spectoacc] 25/11/2016 12:45

Well spotted. Even better news - nearly 11% of shareholders have chosen to convert to Realisation Shares. Hopefully the listing costs etc aren't too large, but that's the divi saved on over a tenth of the outstanding shares.

[gleach23] 25/11/2016 12:30

Nice increase in NAV today, as expected....2.13 to 2.21

[joe say] 23/11/2016 10:00

That's what I figured tbh - but what I don't get is why they need to create this extra class of shares as the way I read it the proceeds of realisation would be pro-rated across the two classes - so why would anyone want to own realisation shares?

What am I missing?

[spectoacc] 23/11/2016 08:50

Don't touch with a bargepole! Can see almost no benefit to them - they promise capital returns when holdings sold, but go on to say "at least 5 years until any sales". In the meantime, the "normal" shares attract a really good yield, & the realisation shares don't pay anything.