Marwyn Value Investors Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 28/9/2016 20:42

Train getting ready to leave the station here by the looks of it. Dividend declaration due and results due. Perhaps announce a buyback to close the discount? The accounts state they have the authority.

[gleach23] 27/9/2016 11:37

Yes I topped up with a few this morning too.

A few chunky trades been going through of late which should be chipping away at any overhang. We could get a nice reaction if and when it clears.

[mad foetus] 27/9/2016 11:02

The price does seem to be recovering a little, this could be a good entry point.

[spectoacc] 27/9/2016 10:42

Bought some more, easily available so still either seller or overhang.

Wondered about waiting for next results first, then realised there's not a lot they can say - the 3 main holdings are what they are, and are listed.

[luckymouse] 26/9/2016 18:44

landed on a prior cons zone - a potential buyzone in the making - high yielder - NAV needs to turn up ideally & a nice basing pattern set in

[spectoacc] 23/9/2016 09:44

Picked some up at 138.75p earlier, so seller still around. Chart also look pretty brutal. But not looking for a quick turn, happy to buy & hold value.

[spectoacc] 22/9/2016 19:38

Yes might regret not paying 137.1 yesterday, huge size available.

I like BCA but I'm less keen on Woodford these days; pharmas/tobacco a fantastic call, but he's still in them! And now in a lot of (IMO) dubious smaller stuff - that US biotech that turned out to be a fraud, Circassa. I'd have more truck with him if he now said "pharma/tobacco no longer the value it was, I'm moving into ...". Not that there's necessarily a "cheap" sector left - banks? Oils? Have to think outside the box to suggest either of those!

[riskvsreward] 22/9/2016 19:14

I think Zeg is sound and paying a fair dividend. BCA is also sound and note that Woodford has a big interest in BCA. Only gloo is a little dubious. At this price this look very good value. The long term track record of the fund managment is very good although lately it has suffered some setback. But then that was becasue it has exited the matured investment in eto and started investing in relatively early stage companies which could turn out to be as successful as eto. One lives in hope but with such a huge discount, high percentage of cash, decent dividend, the safety margin is more than enough.

[spectoacc] 22/9/2016 15:27

A tick-up today but some more large-ish trades. NAV also out, 210.8p.

[spectoacc] 22/9/2016 07:57

Very true, though you'd hope anything "big" they'd have announced at the time to the market, eg a new investment.

[hugepants] 22/9/2016 07:50

Yes MMP = Marwyn Management Partners as I've listed.
Also agree that net cash could be a bit less, and MMP a bit more, than I've shown depending on how many shares they bought at 2p.
There could be other factors we don't know about of course.

[spectoacc] 22/9/2016 07:35

@Hugepants - "Even in an extreme case where all the investee companies issue a profit warning on the same day and their shares each tank 30% I estimate NAV will still be about 165p..". That may well be true, but if they all warn & tank 30%, you can bet MVI will tank 40%! ;) (That, of course, would be the time to buy).

Re your calcs - as @tilts points out, MMP still in there. Also, I believe any shareholders wanting out were offered 2p/share before the delisting, which I presume came from MVI's cash pile.

[tiltonboy] 22/9/2016 07:33

They still hold MMP; it's just not listed.

[hugepants] 21/9/2016 12:06

These look too cheap to me. Even in an extreme case where all the investee companies issue a profit warning on the same day and their shares each tank 30% I estimate NAV will still be about 165p (factoring in cash, other assets and master fund liabilities) which at 137p to buy still represents a 17% discount and a 6% yield. I assume the company will still have over £40M cash from the placing at 220p last November so will presumably still be obliged, re terms of the fund-raising, to pay the 2.06p quarterly dividend.

Just an estimate so DYOR etc.

[jhan66] 20/9/2016 21:35

More cash arriving soon. BCA XD 4p this week & ZEG paying 2.25p too.
I was quite impressed by the recent noise from ZEG board but because of concerns with liquidity I bought half in ZEG directly and half in MVI.
I've sold my ZEG holding within days because of the continuing collapse here. I'm showing a small profit overall and although I'm uncomfortable about MVI movement at least I have their NAv cushion.

[gleach23] 20/9/2016 19:06

Deadline for interims is 30th Sept so maybe we'll soon learn about the plan for the cash...then again, maybe we won't :)

[spectoacc] 20/9/2016 16:53

@gleach - fair point, if there's that much cash. I guess the question is - what do they intend to do with it?

I still reckon the main problem with MVI is the very limited number of holdings - of course it's the main advantage if they're all going gangbusters, but when I look at eg GLOO & ZEG, I can't say either are co's I'd particularly want to buy (BCA is at least liquid).

[gleach23] 20/9/2016 16:28

Higher volume today but looks like rollover trades going on in the main. Still a drip-feed of smaller sales going through though and the drift looks like continuing for the moment.

I notice the last results highlighted that the discount had been 'managed' to 10% from 28% from the previous year but also suspected that was more to do with the ETO sale and the placing. Directors seemed to be taking credit but it appears to have settled back to historic levels as you say.

That said, if half the NAV is cash, doesn't it mean that the remaining assets are even more heavily discounted than the 35% SP/NAV ratio would currently suggest? In which case, as posted above, the discount is factoring in the limited portfolio?

[spectoacc] 20/9/2016 15:53

@Oxman - I tried a sale a few weeks ago when it was above 150, no online quotes. Tried both sides today out of interest - zero to sell at 137, but could buy at 137.1, on a 137/139 spread! So in answer to your question - "lower than here". The 137.1 trades are at least buys, but clearly an overhang building from a motivated seller.

To be fair, the current discount only takes it back to where it was a few years ago - discount of nearer 10% was only a recent phenomenon, presumably based on the sale of ETO.

None of this means there's anything wrong with the company of course, nor with BCA, ZEG or GLOO, but I fancy it to drift lower yet.

[its the oxman] 20/9/2016 15:42

Just keeps falling. Where's the floor?

[spectoacc] 20/9/2016 08:16

@oregano - good point, and nothing to stop a buyback during closed period if done at arms length.

Be interesting to know who the big seller is & why they're selling.

@MF - BCA seems to be their only liquid holding, I'd not fancy trying to sell many GLOO or ZEG!

[oregano] 19/9/2016 14:31

if these guys genuinely are value investors, they should be buying their own shares in at a 35% discount. maybe they will after numbers. presumably in closed season atm.

[spectoacc] 19/9/2016 14:08

Not convinced @MF, knowing the history of this co - remember how long they were on a massive discount when they had the huge ETO holding?

Wonder if discount is justified due to the small number of holdings - only takes a single p/w.