Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 13/9/2017 12:35

Oh my!. A carvery around my neck of thd woods will set
you back a little more!. And so will a pint.

[exel] 13/9/2017 02:13

Thanks, illiswilgig, really great inputs and sector analysis! Further comments would be most welcomed! Thanks in advance. ex

[illiswilgig] 13/9/2017 00:11

exel,

Interesting that you should mention Punch. In the recent interims MARS state that they have won a contract to supply the Punch B estate (the 1300 pubs not sold to Heineken ) building upon the contract to supply Hawthorn leisure's 250 pubs.

Buying CW brewing operations allows them to bring the brewing for these contract in-house as well as providing them with a broader range to supply. All of which means that the CW brewery will now be operating at higher efficiency than CW could run it.

I don't see any consolidation of their breweries taking place. Their strategy is entirely the reverse. Greene King has gone the way of the previous big breweries in consolidating their sites. But MARS has a very loyal geographic following for its Ringwood (Dorset), Jennings(cumbria), Wychwood & Brakspears (Oxfordshire), Banks Park Brewery(Wolverhampton), Marstons (Burton) and now the CW Eagle Brewery(Bedford). They are now the largest cask ale brewer in the world and I think in the long term this remarkable network of breweries will prove to be a far better bet than a single stainless steel monster.

In the pub divisions they have spent years weeding out the weakest sites, investing in new builds, rolling out francises and building lodges. All of which makes them more resilient to current trading conditions (IMHO). By comparison Greene King is only just starting to get to grips with its Spirit (Punch demerged managed pubs divison) acquisition and which has no long term relationship with their two breweries in Bury St Edmunds and Dunbar.

Curently the city finds it hard to value a strategy that refuses to follow modern norms of consolidating, outsourcing and rebranding. Time will tell?

cheers

[exel] 12/9/2017 17:32

- so having one's own beers could come in handy, Spacecake, to supply all one's own outlets + others. I bought some Estrella Damm (not sure of spelling but it came within the CW package) in a GNK pub at the weekend. Wonder how much GNK stuff is sold in Marston outlets (anyone?). Also MARS are supplying the entire CW pubs estate as part of their brewery purchase deal. Having 5 or 6 breweries on freeholds? gives MARS consolidation opps down the line etc. Other chains (like the recently sold Punch?) don't have their own beers as I understand it, so are vulnerable to pricing pressures from the MARS of this world. Jeffian, Space & others - please add to or correct my thesis when you have a mo. would appreciate your takes. Not ramping, just trying to understand! Final thought on demography. Have a gut feel hunch that the MARS client profile (overall) may be older than GNKs?? and a tad more local & loyal? any thoughts on that folks, it may have a bearing, given our share price is so tied to theirs (until 10/10/17?) - in haste!

[chinese investor] 12/9/2017 09:16

Worrying Times !
Time For A Beer ?

[spacecake] 12/9/2017 08:02

Price of a pint ‘is about to shoot up’, world’s biggest beer company warns

The world’s biggest beer company, Anheuser-Busch Inbev has warned that rising inflation means that pints in Britain are about to become more expensive.

[diku] 11/9/2017 13:48

No doubt 2 way action awaiting 100p...

[zcaprd7] 11/9/2017 13:45

I'm surprised we haven't had the shorters coming here, giving it "the share price is telling the story and their must be trouble" routine.I can't really see any problems, but I'm hesitant to buy. Was their recent acquisition some sort of poison pill? I thought the strategy was sound?

[essentialinvestor] 11/9/2017 11:58

The more bullish view may be that capacity will be stripped out
as further pubs become unviable.

[cathian] 11/9/2017 11:31

Jeffian
In view of your previous observation that there are few, if any, Pubs left now in
Oxford Street in London, it would be interesting to know what happened to them. Did they get change of user and, if so, what were they redeveloped as. If, and it's a very
big if I imagine, Planners generally are taking a more relaxed view to the possible change of user of Pub premises then my previous post might have a little merit. But
what has actually happened to all the Pubs that have closed that we hear about in the Press? And I'm not referring to those that subsequently modernize and reappear under new management and, for example, become Gastro Pubs etc. Surely the rest are not standing empty?

[chinese investor] 11/9/2017 10:21

Here We Go !

[chinese investor] 11/9/2017 09:54

Number Of Shares :- 660,000,000

[spacecake] 11/9/2017 09:47

There's about 11,000 beer choices in the UK, number of breweries continues to expand.
Lots of the small independent pub co in my area are making deals with new small local breweries with increasingly weird and poor quality products.

[pogue] 11/9/2017 07:56

Bear in mind the the last time there was reports of consumer spending cuts it was found many people choose to shift down to going to pubs to eat out rather than restaurants so trade did not suffer so a cut in spending is not necessarily a bad thing. In the past when it was strictly beer sales that made the bottom line it was.

[exel] 10/9/2017 14:11

Do bear in mind that lower end pubs and guesthouses are still steadily closing for redevelopment into residential etc. MARS are indeed still expanding, yes, but there are some capacity gaps to be filled by consolidation and other smaller unit closures. Also, they are still shedding a few of their own at the lower end. They DO manage their portfolio! in and out. That said, I guess they may? signal a modification/ slowdown in their expansion rate on/after the 10/10/17 announcement? using the sorts of criteria I mentioned above? Just a may? I have no inside knowledge.

Re GNK - Maybe the higher end geography/demography of GNK is working against them, for once, in this particular cycle? Maybe the South is being hit harder by Brexit? or is reacting sooner to what we can all see coming. Final thought, you can defer that car or new suit for months, try going without a drink or meal out? Also, local people will be holidaying more in the UK for many reasons, starting with exchange rates. That applies to international visitors too, 18% up this summer, per some reports.

[essentialinvestor] 10/9/2017 13:04

Worth keeping in mind the UK enjoys record employment currently.
Recessions have not been abolished, another likely by 2019 imv.
Yet MARS continues to deploy significant amounts of expansionary CAPEX.

[essentialinvestor] 10/9/2017 13:04

Worth keeping in mind the UK enjoys record employment currently.
Recessions have not been abolished, another likely by 2019 imv.
Yet MARS continues to deploy significant amounts of expansionary CAPEX.

[pugugly] 10/9/2017 12:43

123Trev - While many will not like your new target it is (imo) possible as all the consumer facing sectors are under significant pressure - too many outlets leading to excessive competition - reduced disposable income in most families - inflation in essentials with the fall in sterling against most trading currencies - increased costs - business rates - minimum wage - apprentice levy etc - Bargepole comes to mind in respect of most if not all consumer facing sectors -

The 64K question - Where now and which sector/s have a better than even chance of keeping saving safe and possibly growing?

[123trev] 10/9/2017 09:54

Initially thought this was heading to a £1 as I mentioned previously but the speed of recent falls and the current fears over spending and the possibility of this falling out of the 250 puts the 85p on the chart a massive possibility now and a good buy at that level for the future,maybe?

[racg] 09/9/2017 18:44

Sector on a downer. Worth increasing. Should be pedestrian yield focused returns but if it falls much further, should be good for a capital gain also. I will add on further weakness. :)

[exel] 09/9/2017 17:38

Can't believe they are not gearing their expansion (up and/or down) by reference to: 1/ plugging logical geographic gaps that 'fit' their overall model - 2/ picking up any exceptional deals that arise (or not, if not) and [most importantly] 3/ after review of trading results from units commissioned 1,2,3,4 years back et al. They must by now 'know' what works, or not, and be buying, building and/or divesting, accordingly. If impacted by the wider slowdown, as seems entirely plausible - subject to degree, this is surely bound to slow their own pace of expansion, even if only to a marginal extent. Contrary to much criticism on here, I believe that they broadly know what they are doing.

[racg] 09/9/2017 16:31

!owenoughalready, Mr Market.

[essentialinvestor] 09/9/2017 11:45

They may do well to rethink some of the expansionary CAPEX.

[exel] 09/9/2017 10:48

Agreed, Mister MD - doing sums on these, suggests each was £25k incl dealing comm and SDLT. What is perhaps impressive is that our CEO did not hesitate when he saw 'his' stock trashed by the GNK announcement (through no fault of MARS, other than death by sector association) hitting the button twice and making sure the RNS went out 'same day' (unusual but understandable). He is already a major shareholder, so fair play to him for supporting his own company (not every CEO would do this!). I also toyed with a substantial top-up at around the same level, but held back as it rallied above 106p. Was then out of touch later on yesterday and will re-think the whole position ahead of the MARS year end update. Problem could be that the often over-borrowed UK consumer is clearly in retreat in the face of Brexit et al. How much this is impacting MARS remains to be seen. But clearly the GNK update (albeit more recent than MARS) is at odds with MARS latest. We'll know much more on 10th October, but I suspect MARS is doing less badly than GNK. The recently announced director departure and management streamlining etc suggests there are cost pressures, but that they are being managed.