Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 26/6/2017 21:38

Bulk up and split.

[jeffian] 26/6/2017 17:25

"Debt reduction would have been a better route to profit growth"

Not really. One would expect all their current assets and any new ones acquired to generate roc in excess of the cost of money.

[spacecake] 26/6/2017 16:08

Debt reduction would have been a better route to profit growth than buying another brewery, even with the canning facility IMHO.

As for the living wage, Marstons have to pay at least the national living wage (minimum wage) the actual real living wage as proposed by the 'Living wage foundation' £8.45 per hour compared to the tory living wage (minimum wage) which is £7.20 per hour. Most jobs in hospitality and leisure are part time and low paid which is a much bigger headwind for the people doing them than the people paying them.

[r ball] 25/6/2017 14:40

Sector out of favour. Headwinds - new rates valuations, living wage don't help.

[ianood] 25/6/2017 12:29

Saisnbury's own label regional beers, which are all very good, are mainly brewed by Marstons and Shepherd Neame. Maybe SN is the next target?

[illiswilgig] 25/6/2017 09:50

Jeffian I think you are probably correct in that the market is somewhat negative over the Charles Wells acquisition - after all why were Charles Wells so keen to sell? Clearly they did not see much profit growth from the brewing business.

But I'm slightly positive on this acquisition. Marstons have a record of good brewing acquisitions and Charles Wells looks a 'canny' acquisition if you'll pardon the pun. It fills a geographical hole in their regional network as its more South East oriented than their Wychwood brewery. It widens their offer to the supermarkets as these brands are already on all the shelves, adds lager and canning particularly in Scotland, includes a supply deal to the Charles Wells estate and though they haven't mentioned it - it looks like a large site which can be expanded for contract brewing or perhaps partly sold off in time?

But all of this is 'small beer' as it just improves Marstons leading position in a beer market which is contracting overall - though it's the likes of the Lager boys and industrial beers which are really suffering. Substantial improvement in Marstons fortunes can only come from their new build lodges and pub-restaurants running at higher margins than the old wet led pub estate.

cheers

[zcaprd7] 24/6/2017 19:36

Indeed, but you could have said the same of carillion, and that is still dropping...

[11_percent] 24/6/2017 18:37

5.9% divi.

Well supported.

Starting to look like buy.

[jeffian] 24/6/2017 16:48

Not just "indigestion...around the acquisition". More like a disapproving reaction to the acquisition itself. Brewing is a 'mature' business and Marston's, who already own some of the best ale brands, have bought more of the same but it is hard to get excited about something which simply consolidates their existing position but doesn't have much growth prospect. I've held them for years and they do a job for me - paying a dividend with a reasonable degree of security from the asset-backing of the estate - but they've never set the world on fire commercially and I suspect they never will. it just doesn't seem to be in the culture of the business. The Directors have a good life and are comfortable trotting along doing what they do.

[chinese investor] 24/6/2017 15:03

People drink more when things get bad in my experience.

[zcaprd7] 24/6/2017 14:10

I'm sniffing around here again now after a good profit last time around (three year low to three year high).Keeps dropping, presumably some indigestion expected around the acquisition (synergies always tough to realise) Technically, it's come down very quickly, so expect some more drift... Can anyone guess a good support level, or is it best to drip money into this one?

[lord gnome] 24/6/2017 13:34

The market has de-rated any share which has UK-only facing business cf CNCT which, is another that I own. Nothing fundamentally wrong with either company. I guess I'll just keep taking the dividends and wait for sentiment to change. Annoying though.

[skinny] 24/6/2017 12:59

I'm still happy to hold here having bought @93.47 in December 2011 and sold a third @164.28 in September 2013.

[spacecake] 24/6/2017 09:11

Marstons Historic Returns

Period † Open Change %
1 week 126.10 -1.80 -
4 weeks 136.10 -11.80
12 weeks 134.80 -10.50
26 weeks 136.20 -11.90
1 year 136.00 -11.70
3 years 143.10 -18.80

† periods calculated are whole weeks rather than calendar months
So, for every period mentioned above for the last 3 years Marstons has had a negative share price return.

[spacecake] 23/6/2017 22:09

I sometimes wonder if MARS are deliberately trying to make themselves unattractive to any potential suitor. Hoarding breweries around the country.

[hyden] 22/6/2017 22:41

Looking through the past 10 years of data, I see the PE has been as low as 5.2 (2008) so we may have further to fall yet?

On the plus side the yield has been as high as 10%, although it was subsequently cut after it reached these lofty heights.

We've enjoyed a stable and often increasing dividend for the past 7 years now and long may that continue.

[spoole5] 22/6/2017 08:08

These are now priced for recession on 8x forecast earnings

[spacecake] 20/6/2017 13:31

Wonder if the heat wave weather will get a mention at the next update.

[chinese investor] 15/6/2017 16:25

Dividend well covered !

[spacecake] 15/6/2017 12:27

Looks like the BOE maybe going to change direction for interest rates this year.
Voted 5:3 in favour of holding at 0.25% TODAY.

[chinese investor] 15/6/2017 12:15

I'm in !

7.5p annual dividend !

[racg] 13/6/2017 02:31

True but not particularly highly rated as the companies TS loves nor in such a volatile part of the world economy.

[spacecake] 12/6/2017 12:17

Some good ROCE info in the most recent presentation for the brewing sector on the FEET website here...


Marstons ROCE is poor IMHO.

[arf dysg] 09/6/2017 16:57

Indeed. Have a beer, then buy some MARS.

[spacecake] 09/6/2017 13:50

Well, its not the end of the world and Mars is looking cheap.