Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[lord gnome] 09/12/2016 16:05

I did find the article interesting, but the problem with the quant approach to company valuaton is that, as ollie says, it takes no account of a company in transition. Single figure PE, 5.5% yield and increasing, growth to come? The ROCE should also improve over the next year or two. I'll stick with Marstons. Happy to hold.

[timbo003] 09/12/2016 13:58

It was Marston's turn to be cast as the big bad Pub-Co last night on ITV's "Tonight" program:




The Great British Pub Revolution

Series 18 - Episode 39 - Jonathan Maitland discovers why the local pub could be making a comeback. With communities rallying to save their local, is the pub industry having a renaissance?

[jeffian] 09/12/2016 13:45

Yes, I wasn't too sure about that article. Just looking at history and trends without trying to understand the businesses seems a bit like flying in the dark (which is why I don't 'get' chartism either). As someone who worked in the industry for years, it always shows a fundamental lack of understanding when analysts lump together Managed House operators like Wetherspoons and M&B (who are, simply, retailers) with tenanted pubco's like Punch (property and drinks wholesaler) whilst Enterprise are moving towards being a pure property play.

I'm not clear why you favour MARS over GNK, ollie. Their forecasts/values seem pretty similar. (info from Yahoo)

MARS
2016 underlying EPS 14p / PER 9.7x; 2017 14.27p (+1.93%)/ PER 9.53x; 2018 15.02p (+5.25%) / PER 9.12x

GNK
2016 underlying EPS 69.9p / PER 9.86x; 2017 71.16p (+1.8%) / PER 9.69x; 2018 74.11p (+4%) / PER 9.3x

I hold both but I rate GNK management higher than MARS and think they are the more likely of the two to deliver/surprise on the upside.

[olliemagern] 09/12/2016 13:01

The article Sharescope above is fair, but MARS will come out badly on past performance because of the focus in 2013,2014 and 2015 years selling under performing pubs, and repositioning the company. So the past performance table is not useful.
Now repositioned, MARS performance this year and the next year is and will be better than Green King and above the average of the group.
The article is poor because it gives no conclusion.
My conclusion is on p/e and future growth, the only buy of the group is MARS.

Does anyone have an updated f/c for next years underlying eps, in a difficult year to come I have pencilled in (+2% for GNK) +7% for MARS to 15p.

[speedsgh] 08/12/2016 11:06

Useful article on the sector...

Weighing up pub stocks -

[lord gnome] 07/12/2016 16:05

Almost everything is up to day. The market is displaying irrational exuberance and a rising tide floats all boats.

[jeffian] 07/12/2016 15:11

Just the sector up today. MARS +1.56%, GNK +2.1%, ETI +2.84% etc etc

[janekane] 07/12/2016 14:54

They were very good

[janekane] 07/12/2016 14:53

Today's SP
The results
recognised for what they are

[olliemagern] 07/12/2016 10:17

Please tell us more jane

[lord gnome] 07/12/2016 07:57

Who? You?

You are Jane Kane and I claim my five pounds.

[janekane] 07/12/2016 05:04

Recognised at last

[janekane] 28/11/2016 16:12

I think it's a show of confidence
Selling beds will transform this company into a cash cow within the next 3 years
What price the shares then
I'm betting double today's price

[jeffian] 28/11/2016 15:35

I have been buying more at this level but I'm not a fan of 'stage-managed' Director share buys (and if more than one buy at the same time, I assume it is stage-managed). Whilst spending nearly £50k may indeed be a show of faith, it is somewhat diminished in my eyes by the fact that Ralph Findlay trousered over £1.2m in pay and benefits last year, so he's not exactly betting the farm. The only time I did sit up and take notice was when Brian Souter put £13m into Stagecoach when the shares were on their knees. That certainly was a strong signal and proved an extremely profitable one. This, I'm not so sure about.

[janekane] 28/11/2016 15:15

Directors think it's a good idea to buy ,and so do I

[racg] 28/11/2016 06:53

I am a new investor, my main concern before investing was the level of debt. I like the upgrading of the estate and clearing out of the Deadwood. Let's see how low she goes.....(sorry couldn't resist usually happens when I buy in).

[diku] 27/11/2016 16:52

Somehow joe public always has money for small ticket discretionary spending...food & drink...

[essentialinvestor] 27/11/2016 13:49

A little more complex though.

Another downturn, and it is a case of when not if, will see further capacity
stripped out of the sector with pub and some restaurant closures.

Some pub companies performed relatively strongly through the last
financial crisis and see no reason why that should change.

The main headwind over the next 12-18 months is cost inflation pressure.

There has already been a significant sector de-rating through 2016.

[colonel a] 27/11/2016 13:01

But it is discretionary spending.

[diku] 27/11/2016 11:50

Mars is not a high ticket item..

[essentialinvestor] 27/11/2016 11:43

Provided UK consumer confidence does not take a large hit!.

[dogwalker] 26/11/2016 10:41

I'd have thought Brexit plus the possibility of global trade slowing down would make our domestically oriented companies the less risky choice, not more so. As you say, Lord G, some attractive opportunites around, starting here. And surely a bit of inflation would help too.

[lord gnome] 25/11/2016 21:44

Dogwalker - I've noticed that as well. Looks like the market has taken a view on the economy's chances post-brexit and is pricing it accordingly. Bargains about if you are more sanguine about brexit and can take a longer term view. Looks like a buying opportunity to me, with some very good yields on offer - inflation or no.

[dogwalker] 25/11/2016 21:31

There's been a general trend recently of domestic-focused companies' shares getting dumped on the announcement of perfectly good results. Or very encouraging ones, as here.

[jbfnfn] 25/11/2016 20:45

The last few days have seen high volumes (for MARS), 6.8 million shares today 7.9m yesterday above 3m since the 18th November. Is there anything to learn from this? There don't seem to be many large declared positions in MARS ie there is large free float. Are some big positions changing hands at this price?

I hold a few of these and was disappointed the decent results didn't trigger a rise.