Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[lindowcross] 22/9/2019 15:24

Jeffian @ 3188: you're right about the value of properties at Chiswick Mall - by the river Thames. It was lack of attention to detail on my part - I read your post as relating to property in Chiswick generally, but you were specific in your post. Sorry about that.

[lindowcross] 22/9/2019 15:19

For the record, I'm still of the view that Marston's range of brands are worth a very great deal of money and that the value of Fuller's brewery site for residential development would not have figured much, if at all, in the negotiations on the sale to Asahi (I think RICS surveyors couldn't take residential into account, unless there was planning permission granted or applied for) but I've changed my mind about where Asahi will brew "London Pride". It probably WILL end up being brewed in Slough or somewhere like that in the UK, but not for a decade or two. Moreover, it'll probably soon be brewed in Japan, other far eastern countries and all over the world. It will become a world-wide brand. That's what Asahi paid the big money for. Sadly, probably houses will be built on the Chiswick site - eventually. Perhaps they'll keep a small brewery on site for marketing purposes, retain the famous wisteria growing on their offices and flog the rest of the land for housing.

[jackdaw4243] 20/9/2019 08:32

Closed my position , good luck all holders.

[benbrewdog] 12/9/2019 09:52

jeffian there is no difference between house values in Burton and Chiswick.

The difference is in price, personally I'd pay more to live near Burton than I would to live in Chiswick. I'm about half a million up to live in a nicer place.

[lindowcross] 12/9/2019 09:21

Jeffian, I live close enough to the Griffin Brewery to smell the brewing aroma - when the wind blows north of the A4 - and live in an "ordinary house" in Chiswick. I'd be delighted if values were really £2-3m. More like £0.7 to 1.7m for an ordinary house, especially in the current climate. Larger, riverside houses do go for substantially more. As a comparison, I'm aware of a large 4 acre site to the west of London near the M25 also without residential planning permission but potentially suitable for housing where the price is under £10m and has not sold. In any event the technical valuation of the Griffin Brewery as a going concern would be based presumably on brewing profits which in 2018 were less than £4m. Say multiplier of 15 gives a valuation of around £60m. The purchasers are not property developers. They are brewers and if they move the brewing away from Chiswick to say, Slough. "London Pride" will lose some of its resonance as a brand wouldn't you say? No doubt about it, the purchaser paid the big money for the Fullers' brands.

[lindowcross] 12/9/2019 08:54

Whackford, as to the Fullers site, presumably there's no planning permission for residential currently so a RICS valuation could only be based on commercial/industrial use or whatever it's designated for now. Main point though was in addition to value of "real" assets, ie pubs and breweries, there must be substantial value in the brands, goodwill etc as underlined by what was paid for Fullers brands and one site in west London.

[deanforester] 11/9/2019 22:13

4.2% rise? A bit more than in line with the market.

[luderitz] 11/9/2019 21:24

Rising price today was probably in line with the rest of the market.

[jeffian] 11/9/2019 18:32

I was going to say the same thing. I live a few hundred yards from the site. Riverside homes on Chiswick Mall? £10m+ 'Ordinary' houses in the area? £2-£3m+ Flats? £1m+. I think lindowcross is way off the mark.

There is also a bit of difference in values between Chiswick and Burton-on-Trent!

[whackford] 11/9/2019 16:44

Lindowcross. I no longer own shares in Fullers. But the 5+ acre site in the plum location that it's got could be worth £100m. I have no property expertise but if you say 500 homes with land value at 200k£ each that comes to £100m.

[nigelbarker] 11/9/2019 16:16

might something be happening here I think whether spoon reports tomorrow is that it or something else

[nigelbarker] 11/9/2019 15:07

price suddenly improved

[dogwalker] 11/9/2019 12:50

In answer to your questions, I don't know.

[lindowcross] 11/9/2019 12:17

Is it not the case that Marston's brands must be worth a fair amount in "goodwill". Fullers' plant, land at Chiswick river-side and brands were sold for £250m, I think it was. Taking a wild guess, the land and plant can't be worth more than about £30m for industrial use (can it?) , add another £20m for speculative residential development value, so £50m all in value of the hard assets. Thus leaving around £200m for the right to brew and sell London Pride around the world, including leverage of the brand. If those figures are even vaguely correct, what could be the value of Marston's Pedigree? £40m? If you add in all the other brands... McEwans Export, McEwan's Special, Bombardier, Wychwood Hobgoblin, Jennings Cumberland Ale and Banks's Bitter and Mild, + + the goodwill and "intangibles" must be worth a few pence per share for real net asset value. Or am I missing something?

[redartbmud] 05/9/2019 10:17

jeff

You are quite right, and there is probably a number of pubs that would not realize their valuation, if they were sold at arms length.
The valuers apply a formula to the properties, but they cannot visit them all when they carry out updates.

[philoosh] 05/9/2019 10:10

are we likely to see any further uptrend to this share or is it slipping back down to £1 ?

[jeffian] 24/8/2019 10:33

"Real net asset value seems to be getting noticed". Maybe, but MARS has never been as undervalued as, say, EIG. MARS's NAV is around 140p/share but if you strip out the Goodwill and 'intangibles' from the Balance Sheet it drops to 93.5p/share.

[spacecake] 24/8/2019 08:38

Real net asset value seems to be getting noticed, even if those that are taking notice are on the other side of the world. There's been a steady stream of deals where well known consumer brands ended up going to overseas buyers.

[skinny] 23/8/2019 12:05

Volumes speak, well volumes!




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[septimus quaid] 23/8/2019 11:33

Post GNK announcement, things seem to to ticking up a bit for MARS.

Just reflecting on the shorter's position, at present:

GNK have 1.66% stock on loan (down from 10% at the start of the year)

..presume the remaining shorters are at least a bit singed if not actually burning

MARS have 3.83% of stock on loan

whether it is nervous bottom time for MARS shorters I don't know but recent events re GNK can't have gone unnoticed. Will be interesting to monitor short positions over the next few months:

[davr0s] 22/8/2019 13:26

Lol - I'll be buying if it breaks higher as I want to compound those shares that are working out

[benbrewdog] 22/8/2019 13:12

Selling at 126? What are you going to do with the extra penny?

[chinese investor] 22/8/2019 12:46

I'm selling at £1.26.

[paulisi] 22/8/2019 12:43

I'm not sure anyone will come in for Marstons in the short term.If it gets to £1.30, I will take the profits.

[skinny] 22/8/2019 11:58

I'll second that - although off brand!