Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 25/7/2019 13:27

What stock over 3% yield isnt really. Just depends if value investors fancy it too.

[skinny] 25/7/2019 13:23

Post 3156 - exactly!

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 23:41

Absolutely. Like Vodafone etc. Pure dependence on income investors as value investors bailed out long ago .

However when price was around 125p, I'd normally have exited the target point. Especially rise into data. But the flows just suggested thst the professional money from circa 92p suggested that they were covering. Not bailing. So they are ok either way. I think today's sell off was the late buyers and data speculators. Imo

I placed a stop. Got to cover risk so that was just a hunch.

But.. A big but.. if they only felt the need to cover.. And you get strong buy signals here (in whatever way you do), >103.5 ( a dip below is ok) , I think more is to come.

But five days susses it out. I'm not shy to short but can't here. See how she goes a week first

[jeffian] 24/7/2019 23:35

It's a dividend play, pure and simple. If they were to cut that, the share price would collapse.

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 23:27

There was massive money entering here from that double bottom of sept/dec 2018 circa 92p. I didn't see it then. Got in about 13p later which i felt was ok in pullback as the money was too much at the low just to be traders.

So there was belief in something here at the start of the year.

And even after today's reaction, I'm not so sure given the volumes, that the low buyers have actually exited. I had a stop in simply because price was high into data. No other reason

So maybe the next five days are actually more important than today, to truly assess. Wholly based on volumes and flows. No company or sector consideration. It's still above a vital fixed volume high transaction of 103.5.

So il watch for the buyers for a few days. Monies in overrides any speculation . It's not a dead donkey yet.

[jeffian] 24/7/2019 23:17

This is nothing to do with debt. This is all to do with sclerotic growth and a management which doesn't seem inclined to address the issue.

[tim 3] 24/7/2019 23:13

It may help them short term but long term as can be seen in many cases it can be a nightmare.

No problem with them taking on debt if there is a golden opportunity to expand but nowadays it seems to be the norm.

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 22:55

Luderitz

Creating debt for expansion in a sector with (at the moment) poor medium to longterm outlook, is never wise. Be different if the city felt that the investment now would pay off big time down the road. A few sectors are having this issue. It's why mid to high yielders in many sectors are getting slaughtered too. Debt with poor outlook. They are being told by the market to service debt with yield roadkill. And even that is stopping a big chunk of the market coming in 're value investors. Scares them. And the yield threat is scaring income investors too

However I'm not an expert in this company (or any really).

Have they found some niche for the future that they expanded for?

[luderitz] 24/7/2019 22:45

Tim3, I suspect the debt is so Companies can expand faster than if they just expanded without dept.

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 22:28

Debt dampens expectation. And ultimately it's what the city deal in...

[tim 3] 24/7/2019 22:19

Absolutely why oh why do companies saddle themselves with so much debt why not just grow steadily and expand over time as they grow profits.Now they are in a situation where they have to manage their debt which they may well do but it's not helping them.What drives shares higher is profit growth and it feels like these are struggling to achieve this with all the debt.

[porsche1945] 24/7/2019 20:24

Too much debt, uk suffering with weak sterling and crippling brexit meltdown across the board, nothing uk facing is doing any good, builders only propped up by the daft help to sell scheme. The lure is the dividend but iv got a feeling that is likely to be cut, poor share perforamnce for a long time, it cannot go up with debt it now has. Better investments elsewhere, ie not in UK.

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 15:58

Don't get me wrong. Markets rarely make sense. For all i know this could be 200p next year. Just have to monitor and hope spot it coming

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 15:53

I agree. But when they get that sense, they will be buying two drinks. Not blasting £300

[jbfnfn] 24/7/2019 15:42

SentimentRules

Some of those youth will grow up to be sad old gits like me and spend a surprising amount of time in pubs. None of the youth will expect that to happen to them, but life will teach them.

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 15:33

The youth are more into a different scene now. Be it weed parties or 'at a friends' party. Sector need a major rethink. Like retail, the sector money is not seeing a good future restructure in play. And even same goes for traditional banks v online alternatives where those names mean more to youth now too.

Not that one can't buy things like these. I did obviously but, more for trading now?

[jbfnfn] 24/7/2019 15:26

Disappointed with the reaction to the trading update. General economic conditions not helping MARS. UK Q2 GDP looks like being flat or even negative. Youngs YNGA statement on 9th July was downbeat and they are London based. A focus by MARS on debt reduction overdue.

On the plus side we now have a Prime Minister who is an obvious drinker. Not sure any of Marstons products are among his favourites. Can a new chancellor spend less money than Philip Hammond? Hopefully not. I see pubs as resilient businesses even in a downturn.

Have a long term small holding here. Hoped we were heading back to 140 in short order guess it will be a longer wait.

I'm just a penny punter.

[sentimentrules] 24/7/2019 14:03

In all fairness, mars doesn't owe any investors anything anyway. Been a good run here for most whatever happens next. If It doesnt strike 117.5 today, il just say thanks Mars. Adios

You don't need to be in forever to be an investor. Total return judges us all.

Hope it works out here for those staying in, but imo only above 117.5p will disinterest the shorters money

[cheshire man] 24/7/2019 11:46

Equity Development

@equity_research
·
3h


#MARS Q3 update from
@MarstonsPLC
looks ok: LFL pub sales on year so far +0.5%, so recent quarter will have seen falls (comps and weather) but margins ok. Beer vols also down in Q3.
FY ests. may edge down, but we still like the MARS asset and dividend backing + m&a in sector.

[cheshire man] 24/7/2019 11:44

Equity Development

@equity_research
·
3h


#MARS Q3 update from
@MarstonsPLC
looks ok: LFL pub sales on year so far +0.5%, so recent quarter will have seen falls (comps and weather) but margins ok. Beer vols also down in Q3.
FY ests. may edge down, but we still like the MARS asset and dividend backing + m&a in sector.

[blobby] 24/7/2019 11:13

In the mean time they are returning plenty of cash to investors as well and fixing the debt. I can't think of a sector that is not difficult in one way or another and very few that have been going for centuries.

[edit] Actually there probably are a few sectors that have been going for centuries... banks, insurance, mining spring to mind but probably not telecoms, utilities, advertising, media etc

[chinese investor] 24/7/2019 11:05

Annual Cost Of Dividends £47.5 million.
Annual Interest Paid £74.9 million.

[quepassa] 24/7/2019 11:05

There's a lot more pain to come at Marston's.

They are beginning to bite the bitter pill to make themselves better but management knows that they still need an enormous amount of further corporate rehabilitation before they are fighting fit again. Debt remains a crippling burden.

Expect further corporate tightening of the belt and corporate streamlining before things really improve.

And do not forget just what a difficult sector this is.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP