Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 17/4/2019 13:25

But you're not comparing like with like. They've bought Charles Wells since then, adding £92m of turnover and £6m of EBIT, they've raised £80m equity cash and increased shares in issue by 66m! Just increasing the size of the company and looking at headline figures does not represent shareholder value. Look at earnings per share
2012 - 12.3p
2013 - 12.3p
2014 - 11.7p
2015 - 12.8p
2016 - 13.9p
2017 - 14.2p
2018 - 13.9p
That's +13% over 6 years, and not even in a straight line. Sluggish?

[rmillaree] 17/4/2019 12:14

I think the debt profiile always did indicate that they would start to be be paying down the debt over the next year years anyway - lets be honest the market thinks the debt is toppy and to me therefore it does make sense to sacrifice the dividend somewhat.

Note last year operating profit was 182 mill and finance costs were 79 mill - so there is potential for profits to be 80% higher if they can clear the debt - ok that ain't gonna happen in under 15 years but a slight tweaking in this direction now they have a decent amount of the new bigger and more profitable outlets up and running they are in a stronger position than they would have been had they not invested. It was some decent wads spent on the newer places over the last few years - so a little less spent in that direction and pimping the good cashflow is ok by me. I think there are less cracks that need papering over in their estate than there was 5-10 years ago ?

Looking at the underlying profit over the last 5 years this has showed acceptable growth from 82 mill to 104 mill in 2018 and the brewing side has increased underlying profit from 23 mill in 2015 to 32 mill in 2018. In a tough marketplace i personally don't think Mars has done much wrong (other than be to generous to the executives) over the last 5 years and the slight change of tack ref debt is to be welcomed.

[jeffian] 17/4/2019 10:33

I still think that's missing the point, red. Reducing debt is responding to market pressure (EIG are doing the same) and will no doubt be welcomed, but it makes very little, if any, difference to profitability. All they save themselves is the cost of money - probably 6-7% in MARS' case - and that will be offset by the loss of income from asset disposals. If they were serious, they really need to review their whole brewing structure - however much it may please the CAMRA brigade, having a range of medium-sized breweries producing niche products and cheap packaged beer for supermarkets to sell as a loss-leader is not a recipe for growth.

[redartbmud] 17/4/2019 08:24

Met the new Chairman at the AGM.
I formed the opinion that he would not let the business remain in sleepy valley.
It is no coincidence that their first move is to reduced debt by £200m, although the shareholders are made to pay, as dividends are frozen for the next 4 years, whilst executive pay is not!!

[quepassa] 17/4/2019 05:33

Masons.
My guess is that the Chairman may or may not have more in store than just a crack of the whip......

It was interesting to witness the recent break-up/restructuring of Fullers.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[spacecake] 16/4/2019 23:05

It's very difficult to overstate how this company management can confound it's shareholders more than politicians have the people who put them there.

Chairman, just get the whip out and get cracking !

[spacecake] 15/4/2019 13:46

Looks like BOD has a special place in hell for the shareholders, a everlasting purgatory of poor returns and long term debt cooked up with banking fat cats.

[quepassa] 15/4/2019 09:19

Friday.

Peel Hunt DOWNGRADES from Buy to Add and REDUCES Target Price to 115p (from 125p)

[jeffian] 11/4/2019 17:13

No, it will never be an Asos, but it does need to be a Greene King or other comparator in the sector. The reason the share price stands still is that profit growth (not revenues) has been so turgid and the Board doesn't even seem to recognise it as a problem. I've been in the industry myself so I recognise the attitudes - the sense of history, the attachment to the brewing process, a slightly paternalistic approach - which has led them to go on doing the things they've always done and to keep investing substantial amounts in brewing when that isn't where the returns are. The guy above who referred to the Fullers sale is spot on - if the likes of Fullers and Youngs are giving up brewing, they need to look at why that is and ask themselves some questions. Sure, it'll chug along, but that just isn't good enough and management need to be shaken up.

[philoosh] 11/4/2019 15:46

I hope so. I've been holding a small amount for a while and I'm on a 22% loss with no cash to average down. More beer needs drinking. I shall do my part !!!

[poolies3] 11/4/2019 15:18

I just think this is a totally undervalued company and one of the few that Brexit will not affect unless it turns more people to drink.
So I can see it beating on both
This will never be a Asos
type share with massive fluctuations but in 3 months time I am confident it will be at least 10% above today's price

[poolies3] 11/4/2019 15:18

I just think this is a totally undervalued company and one of the few that Brexit will not affect unless it turns more people to drink.
So I can see it beating on both
This will never be a Asos
type share with massive fluctuations but in 3 months time I am confident it will be at least 10% above today's price

[cheshire man] 11/4/2019 12:30

You never know philoosh,,,,,,,,,the results may just achieve that :-)

[jeffian] 11/4/2019 12:03

In revenue or profit/eps? They are better at the former than the latter.

[poolies3] 11/4/2019 11:10

Results next month
Comparisons with last year must be excellent considering the weather factor and I can see a 10% rise

[philoosh] 10/4/2019 12:36

Will this share ever get above £1 and stay there?

[thamestrader] 02/4/2019 08:46

This is about the fifth time I have held MARS, and all previous efforts have ended in nothing better than break even, and that was only thanks to dividends. This time however I am in proper actual genuine bedouine cross-my-heart-and-hope-to-die profit, before even receiving any divis. Yay.

I also like their beer.

[chinese investor] 02/4/2019 08:36

I'm £19 down on my investment !

[cc2014] 02/4/2019 08:33

I'm going to nervously say we've finally got the right side of 100 and are likely to stay there.

A run up to 120 in the first instance would be nice.

[chinese investor] 19/3/2019 15:56

All Good !

[quepassa] 18/3/2019 12:36

cheers to you too.

best.

qp

[pj fozzie] 18/3/2019 12:22

OK - point taken.

Cheers,
PJ

[quepassa] 18/3/2019 12:19

irrelevant. you totally miss the point.

they could've sold the valuable London real estate and simply plonked a brand new brewery in a cheap location elsewhere and merrily carried on brewing beer like they had been doing for countless decades before.

they didn't.

they got out of brewing , lock stock and barrel!

[pj fozzie] 18/3/2019 11:56

QuePassa wrote: "Do remember that Fullers just sold out their breweries to Asahi after centuries of being a brewer. - There was a self-evident reason for that."

Yes - the brewery sits on several acres of prime real estate in west London! Not so for Marstons breweries - so not an equivalent comparison.

Cheers,
PJ