Magnolia Pet Share Discussion Threads

[mauricemonkey] 21/2/2018 13:27

I stopped paying close attention this in 2013 - thanks for clarifying the timings, apologies for my error.

[papillon] 21/2/2018 13:08

The share price of MAGP had already dropped from the high of 5p achieved in Q4 2012 to circa 1p, mauricemonkey, before the price of oil dropped below US$100 per bbl in H2 2014, so I'm not being harsh.

The MAGP share price dropped to 1p in the summer of 2014. During the time it fell from 5p to 1p the price of oil was above US$100 per bbl. I think you'll find that the rapid drop in the MAGP share price during that time was due to "death spiral" financing.

[mauricemonkey] 18/2/2018 12:53

Somewhat harsh there Papillon. Remember oil was over $100 a barrel at the time, and had the price stayed at that level the strategy of starting with small WI and growing organically may have paid off, though that was by no means certain. Once oil hit $50 the company clearly had a problem with fixed costs being greater than revenue. They probably should've just wound the company up there and then and started from scratch if the price of oil increased significantly.
Not sure there's much of a future here whilst the price of oil is in the $60 region

[ettienne1951] 14/2/2018 12:46

Still not much information flow since the 4th July 2017 'Capital Management Agreement' with WED. No Q4 overall Operations Update but a reserves update and a fanfare of an announcement about what use the first $500k entrusted from WED has been put and the paltry free interest resulting.

Once again, the market is asked to consider the results of the pilot $500k investment programme, 'the 'value' derived and to extrapolate that (by a factor of x37) for total WED funds that could (potentially) head the company's way for investment on WED's behalf. I'm guessing that they want the market to consider the potential MV by such an extrapolation versus the current MV and whether current MV is understated. That is dangerous in my opinion since there is not a hint of a timeline and far too speculative.

The financial statements in the next annual report (in about 4 months) will be the best means of assessing any progress overall, especially on the cash flow/debt front.

[papillon] 13/2/2018 14:17

Fantasy company with fantasist investors, like temmujin and the lse dreamers. Still you can't blame RW and her family. MAGP has been a nice little earner for them.

If you adjust the MAGP share price to take a/c of last years consolidation the share price has declined from a high of £5 in late 2012 to the current 4.625p. That's a loss of over 99% in just over 5 years. That's some decline! That takes some doing! Congratulations must go to RW and the BoD for that amazing performance! LOL

I remember I held shares in MAGP back in 2012. The fantasists on the lse bb were then looking forward to holding a party when the share price hit £10 (10p pre consolidation). Ah those were the days! LOL. The fantasists talked of each other as being shipmates on the good ship Magnolia! LOL. Unfortunately the good ship Magnolia sank and bacame a shipwreck whilst on a long voyage!

[keya5000] 13/2/2018 10:42

Love a bit of altruism.....

Well done.

[failedqs] 13/2/2018 10:39

I like to try and help others who are still deluded.

[keya5000] 13/2/2018 10:37

So if you made a profit that you had been happy about why hang around here like a bad smell?

[papillon] 07/2/2018 22:46

temmujin 2 Feb '18 - 18:06 - 1692 of 1693
0 1 0
been told this share will treble next week on brilliant results

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

LOL. I've seen some desperate ramping on these advfn bb's, but this takes the biscuit!

temmujin has form!

[temmujin] 02/2/2018 18:06

been told this share will treble next week on brilliant results

[ettienne1951] 14/12/2017 09:29

I look at the reaction of the share price today, to the RNS that the Gilchrist well has "exceeded expectations" producing 770 BOEPD which is 200 more than the company projected, with dismay.

The share price increased by 25% on the ask and the spread widened to 20%. The timing is just a couple of days on following the unexceptional announcements of a $300k placing @3.5p and the management of the first WED investment under a previously announced agreement.

So what have they just announced? It boils down to their 25% of the combined 1.57% interest with WED, increasing by less than 1 BOEPD to just over 3 BOEPD if I'm not mistaken.

[ettienne1951] 13/12/2017 17:29

The anticipated placing has now happened @3.5p a share on 8.571m new shares or 25% of the enlarged issued share capital.

Unsurprisingly, it came just a couple of days after the company's announcement that the first $500k had arrived from WED for Magnolia to manage well ops on their behalf in return for a fee and a wafer-thin slice of the already thin slice of whatever WED's working interest may be.

It seems it's raised $300k to support drilling on additional wells. Well, good luck with all that - it'll be needed given the state of the reported balance sheet at the interims.

[copestake] 12/12/2017 18:47

Disgraceful.

[lord gnome] 12/12/2017 16:14

Rita secures her wages for the next three months. I feel sorry for the suckers who buy anything from Cornhill.

[papillon] 12/12/2017 15:30

Yet another placing today @ 3.5p. Glad I don't hold!

[ettienne1951] 05/12/2017 16:51

The interim accounts were illuminating, not least the Outlook Note: "Future well investment is likely to be funded from new funds received as part of the WED contract, by further portfolio rationalisation and by raising funds in the future."

No mention there that any cashflow from existing well production would be put into new wells and one can only speculate that it's being spent covering lower overheads.

My own view is that well investment has been constrained due to a continued strain on liquidity which in turn has restricted the company's funding options; hence the company has had to look to other funding streams such as WED and give them a 29% equity stake for the purpose, diluting the share price even further.

Looking at the options:
1. Disposals of certain existing well interests (if that is what portfolio rationalisation means) might generate short-term cash but re-investment in new drilling opportunities has longer-term cashflow implications - eg. capex and drilling.There again, they may have patient drilling partners.

2. New funds as part of the WED contract - that's entirely out of the hands of the company's management. What hasn't been disclosed is the timeframe when the minimum $10m is to be 'committed' by WED.

The WED contract in gross numbers appears attractive but whether it will get the company over its liquidity hurdle in the short to medium term, only time will tell.

The company says: "this arrangement has the potential to create value for Magnolia because using US$500,000 of WED’s funds we conducted a pilot investment programme which generated a rate of return of 100%; a return on investment of 3.26 times; US$75,500 in value to date for Magnolia (lease bonus plus a carried interest for 25% in the first well, within each spacing unit); and US$127,982 uplift in the PV9 value of Magnolia’s reserves. Extrapolate the above based on the minimum US$10 million WED has committed under the agreement and the value on offer is there for all to see."

The return of $75.5k is in 'value' but value is not the same thing as actual cashflow. They get an acquisition fee of $500 per acre secured; a 1% maintenance fee of the value of WED capital deployed ($5k for every £500k deployed) and a 25% carried working interest in the first well of a spacing and a portion of the net revenue on a sliding scale. Of the carried interest in the last well update (Gilchrist) WED and Magnolia's combined interest was reported by the company to be 1.57% and the company's share is 25% of that i.e. 0.3925% or less than half of one percent and quiet minuscule - albeit at no cost to the company.

3. Any new placing would need to see a significant turn-around in the share price first if the company wants to avoid further dilutive effects.

It will be interesting to see how this strategy develops in the near term and the annual accounts should make for interesting reading if there are no significant announcements in the meantime. All in all, this seems to me to be a very risky and speculative investment.

[failedqs] 02/12/2017 09:37

On the plus side, Rita and her family are still drawing huge sums from the coffers as payment for destroying the company.This is genuinely a disgrace, but in the world of AIM there's nobody who can stop it. Only thing to do is sell your shares and put it behind you.

[ettienne1951] 01/12/2017 16:57

The market has given its verdict on the potential of this company and the ability of its management, with the asking price of a share drifting down to 4.75p. It's now lost about 50% of its market value since the October 'Capital Reorganisation' and General Meeting.

[sleveen] 03/11/2017 15:49

Down 50% in 2 months.

Only another 50% to go.

[temmujin] 03/11/2017 15:36

£1.3m market cap now...cheap or what?