Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 24/8/2017 09:11

Very nice results and close to my H1 forecasts. I'll update my model over the weekend, but don't expect my target price to move far from the 84.7p in the header.

MACF remains great value, in my opinion.

[nakedsteve] 24/8/2017 07:21

Beautiful results! Macfarlane represents 25% of my SIPP, it's one lf those 'less attractive' sectors that will just keep ticking over nicely and adding value. By all accounts it is a very well run company with healthy growth plans. Thankfully due to it being under the radar it doesn't suffer from 'pump and dumpers' so share price generally is a good representation of the company's worth. It is nice to see the pension defecit reducing.

[hvs] 24/8/2017 07:15

Cracking set of results.

Looking very positive for the future.

[hvs] 23/8/2017 12:58

Its looking very good here.

[nakedsteve] 14/8/2017 11:03

i really think this one is under the radar and will hopefully do very nicely! lot's of aquisitions and healthy order book, once the new parts of the business are all contributing this could be a very nice long term share to hold in a SIPP like i do....

[hvs] 14/8/2017 09:31

Come on my SON

[bollers] 09/5/2017 15:19

surprised today's AGM/trading statement hasn't brought out some buyers..

[effortless cool] 04/4/2017 12:34

Mysterious price action, without any news. Perhaps a placing in the offing to fund an acquisition?

nakedsteve, apologies for not relying to your post, but illiswilgig had already made such a good job of it that I didn't feel I could add much.

[nakedsteve] 24/3/2017 11:49

thanks very much for explaining that :o)

[illiswilgig] 24/3/2017 09:00

Hello Nakedsteve. Your message prompted me to look again at the pension liability as I had not made a note when reviewing the final results.

It's a complicated area. A lot of pensions are looking similar to MACF at the moment.

At MACF the defined benefit schemes were closed to new entrants in 2002. Active members had their salaries frozen in 2010 (an interesting route to go down rather than closing the scheme to new payments) so the scheme is effectively frozen and new funding is limited and may well be exceeded by the rate at which older pensions in payments are ceasing already.

But that doesn't make a lot of difference to the current year figures the big changes are caused by the accounting standard IAS19 which attempts to update the liabilities at the year end in between triennial actuaries valuations - the next of which is due in May 17 - so its the results of that which I shall be most interested in.

Unfortunately IAS19 doesn't live in the real world (apparently) and was never designed to be realistic in such prolonged almost zero interest rates. Supposedly it models the ability of the funds to generate cash to pay future liabilities through changes in the discount rate based upon all of the assets being 100% in gilts. Which would be a really silly thing for any pension fund to do right now with gilts being so overvalued?

MACF trustees have moved their assets and are 0% in gilts now - so there must be quite a mismatch between the funds ability to pay its cash demands and the IAS19 modelled ability based upon the wrong allocation of funds and the bond interest rate at the point of measurement?

The ballooning deficits caused by the IAS19 discount rate assumptions can disappear as quickly as they arrived - though I am not saying they should be ignored - and at current interest rates are not a reliable guide to the mismatch between a pension fund assets ability to pay and the future liabilities in my view.

that makes me a ilttle more relaxed where a company has taken firm action to limit future growth in pension fund liabilities, closed the fund to new entrants and preferably fresh accruals(not the case here- though they have frozen the salaries at which pensions are accruing) and the company is otherwise growing strongly.

cheers...

[nakedsteve] 24/3/2017 08:14

hi effortless, what are your thoughts on the pension deficit? i really like this company but sold last year as i really worry about the pension issue. there is a lot to like, especially as the rise of internet shopping really helps packaging companies etc....

[effortless cool] 23/3/2017 12:56

Took my own advice in the header and added another £20k worth just now.

[illiswilgig] 27/2/2017 13:01

Thank you EC that's a very useful update.

I've added a few more whilst it was at around 60p upping my holding to just over 71k shares.

The management team have done a great job in the last few years so I will continue to back them.

cheers

[effortless cool] 26/2/2017 21:48

Header updated to reflect full year results. I still rate MACF a strong buy.

[nakedsteve] 23/2/2017 07:59

results are out.....

[effortless cool] 19/2/2017 12:55

I think that will be very much dependent on the tone of the outlook statement.

[vaneric1] 19/2/2017 12:15

Looking at the long term chart shows a high peak at Feb 2016 and approaching the same now, do you think it's going to set a new high this time?

[effortless cool] 19/2/2017 11:13

Header cut to a more manageable size by shifting historical forecast updates to post #1. Also link to broker forecasts fixed.

2016 results on Thursday. Broker forecasts are more optimistic than mine: Revenue £181m, pre-tax profit £7.8m. Hopefully, they are correct.

[hvs] 16/2/2017 15:15

Very very nice.

[hvs] 15/2/2017 12:56

Cause they is all buying today.

[nakedsteve] 07/12/2016 08:59

Why so many trades yesterday then none today??

[hvs] 06/12/2016 10:17

Its moving nicely now.

[hvs] 28/11/2016 12:37

No worries here.

Its effortless.

[hvs] 28/11/2016 12:37

No worries here.

Its effortless.

[effortless cool] 24/11/2016 21:50

Header updated to reflect 22 November trading statement. Still a STRONG BUY. Note that my forecasts are on the conservative side versus broker consensus.