M.p. Evans Share Discussion Threads

[melody9999] 06/1/2008 00:21

look ready to beak-out from the chart - especially with other palm oil companies showing large rises in past few days.

[billfisher98] 27/12/2007 12:57

Looks interesting just beneath the 400 level.

[wassapper] 28/9/2007 09:40

There may be downwsides, but I think you should expect more and more of these delay disappointments from all companies involved in basic commodities eg farmers and miners. There is a global shortage of parts, skilled labour (in the right places) etc and weather is having a big effect - sudden storms etc. Long term they will win but costs rises and delays will be the norm - which they have to pass on which means more inflation.

I hold AEP as well, but want MPE for the cattle in the main which will do well in the long term.

[woracle] 27/9/2007 15:03

wassapper, I thought it was really disappointing. Even taking out the exceptions from 2006, the growth was not simply not what it should be for a palm oil company this year. It was about 31%...compare it to the likes of REA and AEP and the Indo/Malay producers. They are managing 70% to 100% year on year growth without much additionnal acreage either. The ffbs are down typically 0 to 5%. MEP was down 15%. Also the cattle business wasnt great. There are still delays in planting which is behind scheduled again, coupled with rising costs from the strike, and poorer yields.

[wassapper] 27/9/2007 14:53

Good results - do people ever read? 2006 had an exceptional BENEFIT doh so can't compare like with like; on that basis we are up against 2006.

Mirabaud comment .... MP Evans H107 numbers look ahead due to rising palm oil prices with sales of $11.9m vs. expectations of $17m for
full year, "outlook healthy."

That means they will beat full year forecast if things continue.

A buying oportunity.

[wassapper] 23/8/2007 16:44

You may be interested in a piece written to highlight the next Commodity Watch radio show (which can be found on Minesite)

Hedge Funds Aren't the Problem; They are Part of the Solution

During the market turmoil of the last month there have been many siren voices, some even suggesting that the situation faced by global financial markets is akin to a 1929 crash, with investors encouraged to sell everything. In an exclusive interview for Commodity Watch Radio, it was reassuring to hear from John Mauldin that he believes such comments to be "excessive, and pandering to people's fears."

John is President of Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC a US based investment advisory firm that is focussed on the hedge fund sector. Through a network of partners in places such as the UK, Denmark and South Africa, John Mauldin is probably closer to what is happening in the hedge fund industry than most. Whilst his name may be unfamiliar to some, John is very well known to a broad section of the global investment community through his weekly newsletter which is free and read by over one million recipients. "I've been writing this every Friday night for some years now. It helps me to collect my thoughts and at the same time helps others."

The subject of sub-prime mortgages has been concerning John for the best part of a year now as evidenced in his letters. His principal concern is that the fallout from this sector will affect the US housing market to the extent that it causes a mild recession in the US and he still thinks that we shall see this. A US recession will have perhaps a more significant effect on global markets with "a further 10% downside at least for US equities." It is the reset effect of sub-primes that should cause concern. Most of these 'exploding ARMs' are due to start their resets (to higher rates) over the coming months with the peak being seen through to the end of the first quarter 2008.

When asked if the current liquidity crunch was caused by hedge fund speculation in CDOs that were clearly mis-priced and given AAA ratings by the ratings agencies his answer is an emphatic no. "We have seen a few funds blow up. If there were many more we would probably have seen them by now. I have been calling dozens of people in the industry over the last two weeks and asking them if they have seen major redemptions. They have not." So where does the problem lie? "It is Asian and European institutions that were buying these securities. The major problems have been seen in Europe with the ECB pumping in liquidity and German banks in particular experiencing problems."

John has some pretty radical views of how this crisis might pan-out, anticipating more normal markets by October. Very soon he expects the lawyers to get active and have the ratings agencies such as Moody's and Fitch in their sights. "The ratings agencies will have to answer some tough questions. " As he said in his last letter, "Credit markets function because there is the belief that if you lend money you will get it back. Ratings are the grease for those markets. Now they have become the sand in the gears." His view is that these agencies need to restore credibility and he makes the serious suggestion that Warren Buffet should step in and takeover Moody's. He already owns 19%. He should "put his not inconsiderable credibility on the line for all the future ratings and the inevitable re-ratings that are going to be done."

But how do the markets start to unfreeze? He thinks hedge funds will be a major part of the answer. "Savvy distressed-debt hedge fund managers will look at the paper, and buy it for a discount." The key point here is that whilst significant losses may occur for the owners of this paper, they will at least be able to put a value on it (which they can't at present) and move on. Much of the debt will be redeemable giving the funds that step in a healthy profit, even with modest gearing.

He sees the process as being gradual. Traders have to be very careful in this market. They could easily make career ending decisions if they make the wrong move. "They don't want to put themselves in the sub-prime category!" he says with a grin.

We talked a lot more about the markets, the dramatic unwinding of the Yen carry trade (see chart below), gold, oil and the dollar. To hear more from John Mauldin look out for the next edition of Commodity Watch Radio.

Meanwhile, if you would like to read more of John's thoughts you can subscribe to his free weekly newsletter here.

[woracle] 22/8/2007 21:50

For the next 10 years ;)

[wassapper] 20/8/2007 20:20

A good start to my buying. How long will it continue?!

[wassapper] 20/8/2007 12:58

A player in the long term bull run in soft commodities. Good spread of investments and commodity types.

[jzd] 20/8/2007 11:18

Have got back in today @£3.5 having sold @ £3.8
Of course I missed the top £3.9 and bottom £3.4 but the Malaysian sale and Indonesian court case results seem positive to me.
I consider myself an investor rather than a trader but do like to look at the charts as well as the fundamentals

[woracle] 09/8/2007 16:04

Its not free, its $850/tonne.. and they have nice Aussie prime ribeye steaks too ;)

[slapdash] 09/8/2007 15:41

anyone know where I can get palm oil prices for free or whatever it is that this company produces..

Slap

[woracle] 09/8/2007 15:17

Couldnt resist. Added ..

[bandit99] 21/6/2007 08:11

also in Moneyweek this week as a good way into 'softs'

[jzd] 01/6/2007 10:22

The share price is zooming away so have decided to cut my holding. Will buy back in on weakness but knowing my luck will miss out on a takeover.

[monkeywrench] 25/5/2007 09:31

cheers wora, I'll drink to that.

[woracle] 24/5/2007 15:25

no worries monkey..lets just share any info we find which might be relevant in anyway at all and let each make his own mind up. Thank goodnes this site hasnt descended into bedlam like some yet.. always a good sign.

[monkeywrench] 24/5/2007 10:06

wora....

My eyes are open wide, thanks for the advice.

[woracle] 23/5/2007 23:58

Money, looking back on this board, you always seem to get a bit defensive with anyone who might even mention anything remotely negative..take a chill pill.. ..isn't the whole point about a BB about presenting information which may be relevant and keeping your eyes and mind open ? We all know there was massive drought last year which contributed to a loss in MPE's cattle business and we know there was an improvement in Feb for a few weeks.

But here is a good place to check the status of monthly rainfall and forecasts in all parts of Oz



Interpret how u will... but dont close your eyes when investing Monkey..

For the record, I never short stocks.. only indices sometimes..

[monkeywrench] 23/5/2007 16:26

woracle, you seem a bit negative these days, gone short have we ?
MPE are a sound, mid-term investment, not a day trade.
Don't bother watching it. Look again in say, 8 to 12 months and
realise that a 10% growth is a very nice reward for being patient.

[jzd] 23/5/2007 15:36

woracle
Australia is big. Drought in NSW & S Australia. MPE in Queensland & North.

[woracle] 23/5/2007 15:12

Doesnt look good for the Cattle in Oz..

[woracle] 17/5/2007 23:39

shoe, last years profits of 20M included an exception gain of over 9M from sale of property assets. That wont be repeated this year so EPS will be lower.