Lxb Retail Properties Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 06/11/2015 15:25

That looked like 220,000 shares bought at 94p. Will be interesting to see if it gets the price moving or if news comes next week

[mad foetus] 02/11/2015 09:07

while I agree with tilts, the board have been at pains to highlight the difficulties with providing an accurate valuation on the underlying assets. Typically, you buy a large site, then spend money on architects and planners, negotiate with anchor tenants and councils, eventually get planning permission and start building, but the valuation will often be based on the acquisition price paid until close to the end of the project. So there is always a chance of the valuation being materially below the final value, particularly if the market is rising: on the other hand, if you don't getting planning permission you can be left holding an asset that isn't much use at all and if you agree rents to early in a rising market you can also miss out.

I suspect the next results will make things clearer as there are a lot of developments going on which could affect NAV and not a lot of visibility from the company on how they all fit together.

[tiltonboy] 30/10/2015 18:30

Forecast NAV 120-130p

[eeza] 30/10/2015 17:36

They've returned 45p ROC since - so NAV = ~95p?

[mad foetus] 30/10/2015 14:49

Simply because it is a small company with minimal PR. Their brokers, Stifel, never send out anything about LXB. But also, these sort of companies can vanish under the radar - look at KWE, which is a £2bn company that nobody knows about.

These are great investments but property owning companies tend to be under analysed, which is what gives small investors an advantage.

[redhill9] 30/10/2015 14:45

A NAV of 140p gives a discount of over 34% at the current price.

That discount seems to be pricing-in an awful lot of risk factor - far too much surely? Happy to continue holding but unclear why the market rates this share so poorly.

[mad foetus] 30/10/2015 12:11

That 6% uplift is interesting - one of my larger holdings is in the Henderson UK property OIEC which has done 10% a year since I bought in, but holds a few retail parks. Be interesting to see if it gets a NAV uplift at some point - I am not sure how often the portfolio is revalued. Risk/reward wise commercial property has definitely been a good place to be recently and there is no sign of a market top yet: in fact, with the UK population tipped to grow sharply it is hard to see why growth shouldn't continue for some time.

[badtime] 30/10/2015 11:01

Welcome back Winsome I remember you input re Ayr ..I hope your investment is a profitable one

[eeza] 30/10/2015 10:48

Stated NAV at 31 March - Interims - was 139.87.

RNS dated 12 May 2015.

[tiltonboy] 30/10/2015 10:34

mf,

Don't forget that two of the developments have already been sold, so you can't add 6% to those values!

[mad foetus] 30/10/2015 10:24

thanks loobrush - given the last realistic valuation suggested NAV of 137p, a 6% increase would add 10p to that. There is a huge amount of value to be realised here

[loobrush] 29/10/2015 16:24

Looks good for LXB
High demand is driving up shopping centre values, with out-of-town centres racing ahead of those in town.

The UK’s out-of-town shopping centres saw their value soar by 6 per cent in Q3, according to CBRE, marking the second steepest increase since 2000.

Their capital appreciation dwarfed the 3.8 per cent growth in values for in-town shopping centres, echoing a growing demand for large, dominant destinations.

Rents also grew strongly in these out-of-town shopping centres, rising 2.1 per cent, but even this growth wasn’t enough to keep pace with growing property values. As a result, yields were pushed down to 4.5 per cent, their lowest level since 2000, making these sites increasingly attractive for investors looking to lower their exposure to risk.

Natasha Patel, Associate Director at CBRE Research said: "On the whole, we saw fairly modest capital value growth in Q3, but both rents and capital values in out-of-town shopping centres have grown remarkably. This rental growth is largely due to continued demand from retailers who are placing greater emphasis on dominant centres to strengthen their brand presence."

Elevated by these out-of-town figures, the overall shopping centre sector saw capital value growth of 4.5 per cent and rental growth of 1.6 per cent, the highest across all prime commercial property sectors, which averaged 2.2 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively. The popularity of shopping centres appears to have come at the expense of high street shops as property values in the rest of the retail sector have grown by just 2.2 per cent, a figure buoyed by strong capital value growth in Central London of 5.5 per cent.


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[winsome147] 29/10/2015 15:42

I've been siting on the fence for some time on this one but nice to see Higher Newham sorted which I hope will add at least a few pence per share to the NAV.

I previously posted on here that I knew Ayr well as I lived there for a time and I've just twigged (after looking at the directors' Bios) that Alastair Irvine is the very same who was a friend and neighbour of mine until he moved to Portugal. Cannot believe I did not spot this earlier. He is a decent guy and has been buying a lot of shares recently. Although I'd like more clarification on plans for the Corton site, I've finally bought in.

[mad foetus] 28/10/2015 10:57

Thanks tilts, though it would be good to see this reflected in an update or on the website. We are now 4 weeks on from the directors' purchases so it isn't too cynical to expect newsflow from now...

[tiltonboy] 22/10/2015 16:19

Comprehensive vote in favour of the Truro scheme at today's appeal.

[badtime] 16/10/2015 14:26

Maybe a bit of a both MF

[mad foetus] 16/10/2015 14:24

It is looking very strong today. I'm not sure what the summer malaise was about - feels like either a seller who was exhausted or some concerted stake building by the directors at a low price. Anyway, the trend is strong here and all is looking rosy.

[badtime] 16/10/2015 11:01

£1 next stop

[badtime] 15/10/2015 18:11

Positive to close above 90p

[mad foetus] 12/10/2015 08:45

nice to see it over 90p - it has been a struggle getting there but I think there must have been some big sellers that have now been cleared.

[loobrush] 09/10/2015 14:33

I'm optimistic that the they will reach the 137p asset value and return ALL value to shareholders.The management team are getting near retirement and they have a lot of their money invested in the company and will want get it back as they retire. As the months roll on the share price will keep ticking up towards that value.

[mad foetus] 09/10/2015 13:50

always worth considering this from the last results:

"The Chairman's Statement reports the Board's view that there is still significant potential value to be unlocked in the Group's balance sheet and that the Board expects to be able to provide much greater clarity about the remaining value within the next 12 months. Shareholders may find it helpful to understand that the Group's current internal appraisals are suggesting that over time there is a further GBP75.8m of potential unrealised NAV in the investment portfolio, including the further phases at Rushden Lakes."

[badtime] 09/10/2015 11:42

Winsome..that Greenwich purchase may give a clue ..but the most important bit is the hoped for growth in NAV

[eeza] 09/10/2015 11:13

Big stake looks to be changing hands.