Lsl Property Services Share Discussion Threads

[m.t.glass] 22/4/2008 12:58

price resting at crucial support level..

[m.t.glass] 22/4/2008 10:19

agm tomorrow I think

[m4m] 27/2/2008 15:41

Bottom picking is a dirty habit but 100 does seem to be holding.

Tho Real Estate seems to be at resistance on the chart:




I guess it's the statement 'challenging mkt conditions to continue for some time' that suggests more than 2 qtrs b4 poss improvement which is the worry. We all know you don't wait until the 'good times' are back b4 buying but also don't want to get our fingers chopped off. Analysts on B/Berg saying at least 18mths b4 the cycle turns.

Any value in LSL being broken up? A current £108m mkt cap for one of the UK's largest property services company does not seem alot.

[m.t.glass] 27/2/2008 07:43

Current Trading & Outlook

Market conditions during the second half of 2007 were challenging and
transaction volumes softened further in the first eight weeks of 2008. The Board expects these challenging market conditions to continue for some time. Market recovery will be dependent upon improvements in consumer confidence and liquidity in the lending markets.

Our estate agency business will be affected by the lower activity levels in
2008...




That extract from today's results statement - and a 12.5% worsening of the loss in their Financial Services division - are the only negative aspects in this morning's report. The figures for last year contain no horror stories.

[m.t.glass] 12/2/2008 12:54

Somewhere along the line, the relentlessly negative stats regarding house sales are surely going to hit LSL. Not that they haven't already, with the share price falling this past two quarters - but scope for more bad news yet. Results next Wednesday (and RMV two days later).

"..The number of new mortgages granted to home buyers slumped to just 62,000 in December 2007, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).
The figure was 35% lower than at the same point a year ago.
With just 225,000 such mortgages lent between October and December, it meant that lending was at its lowest winter level since 1995..."




EDIT: And north of the border (Feb 14):

"The prospects for the Scottish housing market are for a plateauing of prices during 2008 following the significant gains in the last five years. The Scottish housing market is pausing for breath."

[m4m] 07/2/2008 11:35

100 seems to be holding

[m.t.glass] 23/1/2008 14:08

When Shore Capital reiterated its 'sell' advice earlier this month they predicted that they might need to further revise estimates downwards sometime.

Being so dependent on a thriving house-sales market, this is going to be a lousy year for LSL.

EDIT: Anything below 95p takes capitalisation below the £100m mark which some funds set as their minimum for holding.

EDIT (1:53pm Thursday).. Someone just put through 2.69 million shares at 100p !!

EDIT: midday 29 Jan - Housing Market Continues To Cool says latest Land Registry data.

[m.t.glass] 23/1/2008 12:08

Down 60% in 6 months and still pointing downhill.. fallen 3% in the past 4 hours alone.

[simon gordon] 03/1/2008 10:30

RBS was just as bad as buying a property related stock.

Looks like LSL will be heading lower in '08.

A very smart Hedgie, Jim Chanos from the States, who specialises in shorting was asked on Bloomberg what his best short for 2008 was - his answer: UK property related stocks.

[bigbobjoylove] 18/10/2007 08:45

well done pepi, why on earth they are here gord knows, may short if they climb more.

[simon gordon] 17/10/2007 12:04

pepi,

the property correction has yet to gather steam.

note COL cracking today.

dtz and sav have halved this year.

mental to buy until property has stabilised - could be years away.

better to punt in RBS as the yield in '08 is higher than the p/e.

the risk in property related stocks does not give serious reward.

back to the drawing board....

[bigbobjoylove] 17/10/2007 10:54

LSL issues second warning
Rodney Hobson, 17/10/07 09:29

Estate agent and surveyor LSL Property Services has issued a profit warning after two poor months and it fears that business will be affected into the second half of next year.
LSL says that the 'unexpected events in the banking market' that cut the availability of loans have scared off home buyers and 'transaction volumes during September and October to date have been significantly lower than we had expected'.

Consequently, LSL has lowered its assumptions for transaction volumes in its estate agency business for the rest of this year and the first half of next year.

The trading out-turn for the last quarter and the pipeline outstanding at year end will be below original expectations.

We say profit warning because it is quite obvious that profits will be affected but LSL is apparently one of those companies that cannot quite bring itself to spell this out clearly.

Perhaps that is because even back on 9 August, before the serious downturn began, LSL admitted that successive interest rate rises were starting to affect housing affordability and consumer confidence generally and that lower housing transaction volumes were expected in the second half.

The surveying division has not been affected as badly but it is 'not entirely immune' from the recent difficulties in the banking market as 'a number of key clients are operating at significantly reduced activity levels'.

This division is, however, said to be performing satisfactorily as it benefits from recent contract gains.

Further reorganisation and integration costs of up to £1m will be incurred this year, LSL adds.

Chief executive Simon Embley remain confident of delivering a stronger performance this year than in 2006 despite the deterioration in the market, 'although the outcome for the financial year will fall short of our previous expectations'.

He says: 'Market conditions are likely to remain challenging for our agency business well into the first half of 2008, but we expect to deliver further strong progress in our surveying division, which now represents a greater proportion of our business.'

LSL shares slumped 33.5p to 136.5p this morning, a fall of nearly 20%. They have tumbled from 267p at the end of July and could have further to fall.

[pepi moon] 17/10/2007 10:48

I am a buyer - there's enough bad news in the price IMHO.

[privileged] 17/10/2007 09:54

good analysis guys! Hope you shorted

[bigbobjoylove] 17/10/2007 09:41

thought the debt was alot more? must be confused with another stock i look at that many. Agree it is hard to argue buying these under 100p. May short but need to ring up for a quote.

[simon gordon] 17/10/2007 09:27

Just had a quick look at the Interims and the high debt levels make this a no-no for me. Debt £56.3m

Bigbob - your analysis is right on the mark.

Cheap stocks get cheaper!!!!!

[bigbobjoylove] 17/10/2007 09:13

could go alot lower, eps first half were 10p but the statemnet suggests things aren't good plus exceptional items to go on the b sheet. Expect in such tough times these won't command much more than 5x earnings, therefore over 100p and these are very expensive given the debt also. Not tempted by a long shot. Good luck.

[stevemarkus] 17/10/2007 07:54

Still looks cheap, more a question of whether there is going to be further deterioration in the housing market, I think. They have some large contracts in place which should help sustain them, but unfortunate that they have £1m further restructuring and integration costs. I have a few which I shall keep for now, possibly top up at some point if we see the housing market start to improve. Things seem to change quite rapidly - as per the slowing of the market, which seems to have just taken a couple of months.

Steve.

[bigbobjoylove] 17/10/2007 06:55

yep dave, one i've traded on intraday falls, luckily don't hold. Chart says it all. Will check figs now, has fallen plenty so maybe too late for a short.

[bigbigdave] 17/10/2007 06:48

Sounds like a profit warning Bob, think LSL will be going lower.

bbd

[bigbobjoylove] 11/10/2007 13:43

well these are so low now that it's bordering on the ridiculous. Compared to Rightmove these are a steal. I watch with interest and i'm getting ready to pounce.

[johnv] 20/4/2007 06:27

Cant believe this is still creeping up, even with expected higher interest rates, house price drop etc etc.

[peladon] 08/2/2007 17:26

Progress at last, and a new high.

[Abuse team] 08/2/2007 10:54

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