Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 21/6/2018 11:31

Interceptor it never fails to amaze how people try to find confidence in scenarios that may or may not support their view. The realities here are that work relies on politically driven giant multinational organisations subbing out a mass of things that guarantees to tick a monumental list of single market criteria. This is the same across all European big businesses.If folk think they can hold Europeans to ransom by some sort of Trump style trade war, the are in the wrong line of work imo and need to try a new career with coco and crew at the Moscow state circus.

[meijiman] 21/6/2018 11:19

Fair summary hastings. The broker numbers will have been vetted by the company. Think a bit of over reaction here....but any sort of uncertainty is a killer for sentiment towards a share.

[hastings] 21/6/2018 11:13

As I posted earlier CT the broker has downgraded pre-tax for 2019 to £1.9m against the £2.1m for this year, so it's the uncertainty now being reflected in share price fall imo. At the current level it's trading on a forward PER of 9 hardly expensive and arguably attractive.It is however the unknown and having heard Peter's comments on Brexit first hand in an LPA context, I personally feel the market caution is reasonable.

[fredfishcake] 21/6/2018 11:09

I think management here are being honest. They can't read the future and are currently seeing a decrease in the order book. They're trying to get past this and may or may not succeed. It's up to us to judge whether we fancy their chances. Do you feel lucky punk?

[castleford tiger] 21/6/2018 11:00

We have committed a further GBP1m to capital expenditure as a measure of our confidence in the future

We have orders on hand and projects for which we have been selected which, together with substantial opportunities for new business, will allow us to maintain and grow the business over the next few years. As we have won more business, we have had the very pleasant task of enhancing our capabilities to satisfy this demand. We look forward to similar opportunities in the future

Now that its clear BREXIT will happen ,would you say that if you thought the job was stuffed?

Has anyone seen the latest note ( for what they are worth)?

I still think 2m profit this year giving close to 14.5 eps

The current p/e under 10 is harsh but with uncertain times ahead probably close.

The directors have a few bob in shares and whilst I started at 34p I also paid up to 160p for some.

I am happy to remain involved here.

Tiger

[cockerhoop] 21/6/2018 10:42

Agree Hastings. Already evidence of 'onshoring' of supply chains both in the EU and the UK. With the current unpredictability of the type of Brexit we're going to get, companies would be failing their stakeholders if they didn't put contingencies in place.

[hastings] 21/6/2018 10:36

Interceptor2 regarding Brexit fall out, when I attended the opening day of the New Walden premises which saw a full company presentation the company said if Brexit happened, it would be a very problematic for LPA.Strong words which may have been overstated, but nevertheless a serious worry. We will see.

[cockerhoop] 21/6/2018 10:20

Commiserations to holders.

I do though think the company hinted at the issues in both the Finals in January and the Agm statement (especially telling from execs used to colourful descriptors such 'full bore' and 'galloping')

As we discussed at the time on this thread it's down to interpretation but I believe there was enough to suggest caution and acted accordingly on 29th Jan.

[interceptor2] 21/6/2018 09:56

I have made some very good profits in the past here which might have been a reason why I was too keen to buy in again before today's results, I didn't take the cautious tones in previous RNS releases seriously enough.

I agree that today's statement was very mixed and also very hard to interpret.

But I can't see post Brexit orders gone for good from our European friends, it wouldn't make business sense to act like that because the UK would retaliate if the Government had a backbone? in which case the Europe would have much more to lose than the UK.

[castleford tiger] 21/6/2018 09:51

My ret fund

you did fancy 2.00 in January

Like I did.

If directors buy/top up its naughty.

Tiger

[scooper72] 21/6/2018 09:27

Get 125p to sell now. And tried to buy 5 shares and none available. So maybe some people think this is a good price to go in despite the announcement

[my retirement fund] 21/6/2018 09:21

Yea I got stiffed a few years ago by this outfit. The excuse was about new premises then. Have followed them since but never bought again thank god.The reality is they are a two bit outfit in a sector with a lot of similar and often better competition around Europe.I expect post brexit a lot of their export chances of work will be gone for good as well, as when your not in the club in these sorts of sectors you are banished from the top tables.

[caterham88] 21/6/2018 09:15

The RNS is so full of mixed messages. No explanation in the text for the exceptional cost of £111k, although it could be relocation from the notes, but then it could be some other "non recurring cost". Also, even though the actuarial loss on the pension scheme of £396k was material, absolutely no mention in the announcement text. On the other hand, the Chairman states "that operating profits have also been at record levels and that this performance is continuing during the third quarter and should result in an outstanding result for the year".

[my retirement fund] 21/6/2018 09:13

Got 50p written all over it imo

[interceptor2] 21/6/2018 08:57

Managed to sell most of my holdings at the open with only a small position left. I was expecting better and thought that previous statements had been over cautious, I was wrong.

[andy2205] 21/6/2018 08:54

Indeed ansc, I simply thought the last update was another badly worded statement but there was obviously an underlying issue.

[ansc] 21/6/2018 08:43

To say I'm surprised and disappointed is the understatement of the year. Clearly some were in the know beforehand and I wasn't one of them!

[castleford tiger] 21/6/2018 08:28

ouch that hurts

[hastings] 21/6/2018 08:17

Broker has downgraded next years pre-tax to £1.9m from £2.2m giving EPS of 13.3p.

[rivaldo] 21/6/2018 08:11

Exactly starpukka. I managed to sell my small holding over the first few minutes of trading at a small profit over last year's purchase. The mood music going forward has changed rather dramatically for the worse. Good luck all.

[starpukka] 21/6/2018 08:08

Hhhmmm....Not the half yearly report I was expecting. Got out first this morning. This explains the recent drop leading up to results. Bad news invariably leaks.

[ansc] 20/6/2018 13:17

For those investors of a nervous disposition, a reminder of the chairman's AGM statement:

"In my statement included in the Annual Report published in January, I reported that output during the first quarter of the current financial year was at record levels. I am pleased to report that this has been sustained during the first half of the financial year, and the order book for delivery during the remainder of the year should present us with an excellent result. While this performance should be at an exceptional level, well above recent historical levels and not necessarily sustainable in the immediate future, it has established the Company at a new level and in a very strong position to exploit many opportunities for major future growth in the medium and longer term.

The UK rail market is enjoying unprecedented, and quite possibly unsustainable, demand for improved infrastructure and new rolling stock, much of which may be satisfied in the short term by imports and in the longer term potentially by the establishment of new assembly facilities in the UK by international companies. We are seeking to establish ourselves in the supply chains of these new, mainly European, suppliers, but this is challenging because it requires us to displace existing members of their supply chains. As an established exporter, we are used to this challenge; to which our response is to work hard at building new relationships with those new customers whom we believe will be here for the long term while sustaining our relationships with our existing export customer base.

We have taken advantage of this demand for new rolling stock,by investing in capital and resources to improve productivity. However, we believe that in the short term the UK market for renewals, upgrades and refurbishment of existing rolling stock has been distorted by this flood of new vehicles, with consequently lower levels of demand, undermining the confidence of some of our UK customers within this segment of the market.

The new major effort to give additional impetus to 'Digitising the Railway' will create more opportunities for us. This is not just the adoption of the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) and European Train Control System (ETCS), which will increase the capacity of the network, it will create opportunities for our Ethernet backbone technology for installation on new and existing rolling stock, for our digitally controlled LED Lighting systems for rolling stock and infrastructure and our 'at seat' charging outlets for mobile devices. It will also embrace electronic ticketing, Wi-Fi, mobile phone coverage and a host of other passenger-facing functions and opportunities to improve customers' travelling experience, creating demand for our new products and services.

In addition to the excitement in the rail market overall, we are putting additional focus on our Aircraft Ground Power Supply products and we see an improved market in Aerospace and Defence, which had been quiet of late.

We look forward to the future with enthusiasm."

[buywell3] 19/6/2018 13:55

IMO best year to date expected