Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[ansc] 06/4/2018 19:24

Most of the trades which went through today were not counted so, as the new tax year started today, I'm assuming they might have been 'Bed & ISA' marks.

[ansc] 05/4/2018 17:44

No, ignoring the two x 15k trades marked @ mid (54p), the buyers just held the upper hand today.

[ansc] 05/4/2018 08:26

Yesterday's selling could, of course, have been in view of the 2018 tax year ending today. It will be interesting to see whether that continues today.

[buywell3] 04/4/2018 16:06

............ The coming GROWTH of the RAIL Industry ................




UK

UK train passenger numbers are at an all-time high, with projections of doubling over the next 30 years. In response, the UK government has committed to invest CAN $83 billion between 2019 and 2024 to renew and maintain the rail network. Phase 1 of the $96 billion HS2 high-speed rail line connecting London with Birmingham has received approval, with Phase 2, connecting London with Manchester and Leeds, aiming for approval in 2022. London’s city-crossing Elizabeth Line, also known as Crossrail 1, is set to open in 2018. Planning for Crossrail 2 is also underway, responding to projections that London’s population will grow by one million residents by 2020.




Asia

Fueled by economic growth and rapid urbanization, investment in the rail and transit sector will remain intact. Substantial budgets have been set aside for ambitious new projects as well as upgrades and extensions to existing systems by transport authorities, including those in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, among others.

Interest in high speed rail will remain strong. WSP is currently serving as the Joint Development Partner to assist the Malaysia MyHSR and Land Transport Authority of Singapore on the 350km Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail project, which is slated to be completed by 2026. In Thailand, WSP completed the feasibility study and definitive design for the proposed Northern and North Eastern HSR Lines for the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning. China will continue to be a key player in this market, seeking opportunities to support regional nations to develop HSR networks as part of the One Belt One Road initiative.

Funding is also in place to expand the mass transit system in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The development of rail projects in Malaysia will continue to make headlines and attract global interest. The reference design of the third MRT line in Kuala Lumpur─the 40km mostly underground Circle Line─commenced in the latter part of 2017, while the full-scale construction of LRT Line 3 is set to start soon. WSP was appointed as the Rail Systems Consultant on both projects.

Similarly, in Thailand, Bangkok’s transit system is being extended with new lines and a new monorail network to improve connectivity and address traffic congestion. In Hong Kong and Singapore, investment will continue to be available for network extensions and system upgrades to their aging mass transit networks.



Australia/New Zealand

Australia’s two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, are each forecast to double in size by 2050 to over 8 million people. The Australian government’s Smart Cities Plan emphasizes the importance of connectivity to shape the public transport investment landscape for rail and transit. This includes construction of separate new multibillion dollar metrorail systems in Sydney and Melbourne crossing underneath heavily congested central business districts, harbours and rivers. Existing passenger rail networks are being extended, made safer through level crossing removals and grade separations, and undergoing capacity upgrades by employing latest signalling technologies, such as CBTC and ETCS. Light rail systems are also experiencing a resurgence with two new lines in Sydney, and within smaller cities including Gold Coast Newcastle, Canberra, and Adelaide.

On a national scale, the $10.4 billion Inland Rail Program will provide a 1700km freight link between Melbourne and Brisbane. The result will be increased capacity and reduced travel time and costs to regional centres. The project is well under development, and the initial contractor packages will be awarded in 2018. The Government is looking at “Faster Rail” network improvements to provide travel solutions for regional-area access to the main cities in support of the urban spread.

Neighbouring New Zealand is also becoming highly urbanized, particularly in Auckland and Wellington. The country is looking ahead to build smarter cities that include a new underline rail system below the Auckland central business district to address the heavily congested surrounding road network. A recent change of government will likely bring a shift in funding, with investment likely to favour rail projects over highway projects. Recent disaster recovery projects, traditional maintenance, replacement of life-expired equipment and minor improvement projects are also necessities that require funding.



Canada

The Canadian federal government remains committed to infrastructure spending, with up to $3.4 billion to be allocated through the Public Transit Infrastructure Fund (PTIF). The PTIF will fund up to 50 percent of the eligible cost of transit projects, including the rehabilitation of public transit systems, planning of future system improvements and expansions, enhanced asset management, and system optimization and modernization. The Canadian Infrastructure Bank will also invest $35 billion in federal seed money aimed at attracting a 4-1 ratio of private-public funding, while $5 billion sourced from the Investing in Canada infrastructure plan is earmarked for public transit systems. The newly introduced National Trade Corridor Fund (NTCF) will fund up to $2 billion over 10 years with private industry, including railways as eligible recipients. The NTCF will match up to 50 percent of eligible costs.

VIA Rail, Canada’s national intercity passenger rail provider, has embarked on a fleet renewal program worth up to $1.3 billion. VIA will also invest as much as $3 billion to build a dedicated new corridor between Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal, which is expected to boost ridership by as many as 7 million passengers. The Ministry of Transportation Ontario (MTO) is seeking to move forward with an environmental assessment of a potential High Speed Rail (HSR) line between Toronto and Windsor, Ontario at a total cost of $20.9 billion.

[buywell3] 04/4/2018 15:54

The RAIL Industry is 66.6% of what LPA do .... currently the media are saying this industry is set for growth to 2025 ( see my posts )

19th Feb 2018 the LPA BOD said ...

19-February-2018-LPA-annual-report-2017.pdf


LPA Group Plc – Annual Report & Accounts 2017

LPA'S BUSINESS AND STRATEGY


The Group is a market leading designer, manufacturer and supplier of LED based lighting and electro-mechanical systems and a distributor of engineered components focussed on the transportation (including rail, infrastructure and aviation)
and aerospace & defence markets.

These are growth markets in the UK and globally.

All Group activities serve the same markets (to a greater or lesser extent), have a mutual dependence on rail (which accounts for more than two thirds of Group turnover), share resource and frequently work on the same projects.





Now we get this ...



LPA GROUP PLC

AGM Trading Update

21 Mar 2018

At the AGM of the Group to be held at 12.00 noon today, Michael Rusch, Chairman, will make the following statement:



"In my statement included in the Annual Report published in January, I reported that output during the first quarter of the current financial year was at record levels.

I am pleased to report that this has been sustained during the first half of the financial year, and the order book for delivery during the remainder of the year should present us with an excellent result.

While this performance should be at an exceptional level, well above recent historical levels and not necessarily sustainable in the immediate future, it has established the Company at a new level and in a very strong position to exploit many opportunities for major future growth in the medium and longer term.



"The UK rail market is enjoying unprecedented, and quite possibly unsustainable, demand for improved infrastructure and new rolling stock, much of which may be satisfied in the short term by imports and in the longer term potentially by the establishment of new assembly facilities in the UK by international companies.

We are seeking to establish ourselves in the supply chains of these new, mainly European, suppliers, but this is challenging because it requires us to displace existing members of their supply chains.

As an established exporter, we are used to this challenge; to which our response is to work hard at building new relationships with those new customers whom we believe will be here for the long term while sustaining our relationships with our existing export customer base.



"We have taken advantage of this demand for new rolling stock,by investing in capital and resources to improve productivity. However, we believe that in the short term the UK market for renewals, upgrades and refurbishment of existing rolling stock has been distorted by this flood of new vehicles, with consequently lower levels of demand, undermining the confidence of some of our UK customers within this segment of the market.



"The new major effort to give additional impetus to 'Digitising the Railway' will create more opportunities for us. This is not just the adoption of the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) and European Train Control System (ETCS), which will increase the capacity of the network, it will create opportunities for our Ethernet backbone technology for installation on new and existing rolling stock, for our digitally controlled LED Lighting systems for rolling stock and infrastructure and our 'at seat' charging outlets for mobile devices. It will also embrace electronic ticketing, Wi-Fi, mobile phone coverage and a host of other passenger-facing functions and opportunities to improve customers' travelling experience, creating demand for our new products and services.



"In addition to the excitement in the rail market overall, we are putting additional focus on our Aircraft Ground Power Supply products and we see an improved market in Aerospace and Defence, which had been quiet of late.





But the media says

''Rail transport demand is particularly on the rise, responding to the growing demands of rapidly expanding metropolitan areas. According to research conducted by the International Railway Research Board (IRRB) and the International Union of Railways (IUR), demand for long distance rail, demographic evolutions and lifestyle changes will continue to drive this expansion, as will technological advancements towards more energy-efficient systems for rolling stock and infrastructure. IRRB/IUR research foresees convergence towards a global rail system with a maximum degree of interoperability, as well as a global railway supply market.''



Which agrees with

19th Feb 2018 the LPA BOD said ...

19-February-2018-LPA-annual-report-2017.pdf


LPA Group Plc – Annual Report & Accounts 2017

LPA'S BUSINESS AND STRATEGY


The Group is a market leading designer, manufacturer and supplier of LED based lighting and electro-mechanical systems and a distributor of engineered components focussed on the transportation (including rail, infrastructure and aviation)
and aerospace & defence markets.

These are growth markets in the UK and globally.


So why the AGM negative comments which have knocked over 20% off the share price and worse ... damaged what was a VERY strong technical chart. ?

Did the LPA BOD think that their AGM statement would have no effect on the share price of LPA ?

We need some clarification in the form of another RNS

[buywell3] 04/4/2018 14:23

LPA now is a Takeover sitting duck

And IMO the wording of the BOD Update has not helped re the present share price drop



HOW

Can the BOD talk down Rail growth ?





March 09, 2017
Global rail traffic forecast for continued growth

''ACCORDING to a report published by SCI Verkehr, Germany, all types of rail traffic are expected to grow up to 2025, building on the growth already achieved since 2005. The strongest growth is expected in urban rail, followed by mainline passenger and freight.''



GLOBAL RAIL AND TRANSIT TRENDS FOR 2018

As rail transport demand continues to rise around the world, WSP’s expertise in transport infrastructure is propelling rail and transit networks toward sustainable mobility. Stakeholders are encountering greater complexities as expanding metropolitan areas redefine emerging transport landscapes. Moving forward, WSP is pioneering systemic solutions to tackle challenges and maximize opportunities for rail transportation development.

According to SCI Verkehr, an independent consultancy company for the global transportation sector, freight, passenger and urban rail transport around the world has been on the rise since 2005, with the latter two segments showing constant positive development that is expected to continue. Rail transport demand is particularly on the rise, responding to the growing demands of rapidly expanding metropolitan areas.

[castleford tiger] 04/4/2018 14:16

just bought another 5 at 1.55

cheap in my opinion.

Far too cheap

tiger

[buywell3] 04/4/2018 13:51

That or perhaps a bid is coming at around 150p LPA is a sitting duck




P/E now 10

Bid of 225p would equate to P/E 15


This years earnings set to beat last years ie profits up

With demands on the Rail Industry set to double in next decade ... Rail growth looks assured



April 4th, 2018

''Transport Secretary Chris Grayling said: ‘We are investing in the biggest modernisation of our railways since Victorian times delivering faster, more direct services and more comfortable journeys.

‘This includes significant signalling and station upgrades to enable this new fleet of high-speed international services to stop at Ashford, which will offer a massive boost to the local economy. And with the London to Amsterdam service starting this week it will also make international travel between here and the continent quicker and more convenient for travellers.’





''NEWS
UK infrastructure is not meeting the needs of business, research says''


'West Oxfordshire's future relies on better train services'

Asian Rail growth looking to get even more ahead of the UK

[my retirement fund] 04/4/2018 13:15

Indeed this is being walked downwards for a large dump. Probably got further to go too

[ansc] 04/4/2018 13:12

The price movement this morning is nonsensical judging by the trades recorded so far, I can only assume there must be a largish sale being tactically delayed by the Market Manipulators.

[buywell3] 28/3/2018 17:49

POST REMOVED

[buywell3] 23/3/2018 17:46

Nice chart pennant formation taking shape


Next positive RNS should move the share price up re length of pennant


Note the chart pennant previous that started Nov 2017 through to Jan 2018

SP then rose from 145p to 175p ... 30p rise

Present flag is going to become bigger ... as it is already

35p rise now IMO looking good chartwise ie to 200p




Good stuff init


I still feel however that at this share price a bid is more likely to come in from one of the later EU entrants into the UK Rail Sector looking for market share.

Whilst small LPA is growing and has a very decent client list plus a growing skilled workforce.

A bid of anything over 225p from here would have to be looked at seriously by the BOD

[freddie ferret] 23/3/2018 15:52

Offset by a chunky buy.

[ansc] 23/3/2018 10:58

It looks as tho' the Market Manipulators mark down this morning (before any trades had gone through) succeeded in putting the wind up a few 'rabbits'.

[buywell3] 23/3/2018 07:34

Netowrk Rail look set to pocket about £1.2 Billion from the sale of property assets



''The sale will bring a major cash boost to help fund key projects across England and Wales as part of the railway upgrade plan.''

[buywell3] 21/3/2018 21:06

Managing peoples expectations is an art form

LPA seem to be on the right tracks

Rail work looks set to make 2018 a stellar year

[freddie ferret] 21/3/2018 17:29

Share price reaction has been good - stability in the face of a broader bear market, good update.

[andy2205] 21/3/2018 13:59

Totally agree Rivaldo, super positive then all that talk of unsustainable demand cancelled out the good stuff.

[rivaldo] 21/3/2018 12:22

The AGM statement just issued certainly starts off brilliantly:

"In my statement included in the Annual Report published in January, I reported that output during the first quarter of the current financial year was at record levels. I am pleased to report that this has been sustained during the first half of the financial year, and the order book for delivery during the remainder of the year should present us with an excellent result. While this performance should be at an exceptional level, well above recent historical levels and not necessarily sustainable in the immediate future, it has established the Company at a new level and in a very strong position to exploit many opportunities for major future growth in the medium and longer term."

Subsequently there's a huge level of commentary and detail. This is fantastically informative relative to most companies. Is it necessary at this stage rather than in the results? Potentially it detracts somewhat from the overall message, and certainly the share price reaction has been muted despite the excellent performance and prospects, which are obfuscated by the comments re existing rolling stock and imported goods.

[buywell3] 19/3/2018 11:34

I wonder if some Institutions will buy into the coming growth story

The UK Rail Industry and Transport Industries are set to grow to meet Industrial demands post Brexit

LED Lighting is now an established growth división in its own right

Like I posted a while ago , next área for growth could be to do with EV´s , and charging point provisions around the UK with associated services and supplies, lighting etc

[castleford tiger] 17/3/2018 08:03

Last year finished full bore and this has continued into the current financial year. We expect business to settle down to a higher level than that previously achieved, but probably not as high as we are presently experiencing. We have orders on hand and projects for which we have been selected which, together with substantial opportunities for new business, will allow us to maintain and grow the business over the next few years. As we have won more business, we have had the very pleasant task of enhancing our capabilities to satisfy this demand. We look forward to similar opportunities in the future.

The strong start to the current financial year bodes well for the year as a whole, sustaining the progress we have made over the last two years.

We look forward to the future with increasing optimism and confidence.


Stronger first half with a million profit I think
I expect 16/18p a share this year.
The shares are well undervalued at anything under current 220p in my opinion.

However good things come to those that wait

tiger

[cockerhoop] 16/3/2018 11:36

Ansc,

Agree it's easier to digest the AR where attention has been paid to layout etc. Especially in hard copy form.

[cockerhoop] 16/3/2018 09:58

Ansc,

Whilst I completely agree with your sentiments that the AR contains lots of additional information on a company the 3 examples you gave were all included in the results RNS :-)