Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 30/1/2018 09:36

Last year finished full bore ............and this has CONTINUED into the current financial year........... We expect business to settle down to a HIGHER level than that previously achieved.........., but probably not as high as we are presently experiencing. We have orders on hand and projects for which we have been selected which, together with substantial opportunities for new business, will allow us to maintain and GROW the business over the next few years. As we have won more business, we have had the very pleasant task of enhancing our capabilities to satisfy this demand. We look forward to similar opportunities in the future.

The STRONG start to the current financial year bodes well for the year as a ,whole , sustaining the progress we have made over the last two years.

We look forward to the future with increasing optimism and confidence.

I SEE VERY LITTLE NEGATIVE IN THIS

[castleford tiger] 30/1/2018 09:18

interpretation does vary from person to person.
I have faith in the management and we have good visibility with the order book.

I guess if you are looking for weakness than you can make a play on words.
However as bullish as I am I think the statement shows confidence.

Tiger

[meijiman] 30/1/2018 08:20

You could equally argue that there should be no ambiguity in these statements -it should be crystal clear. Is the company moving at a trot or a slow gallop and when was the transition? Can it achieve full gallop status later on softening ground?

[castleford tiger] 30/1/2018 07:41

HOOP

The results read pretty well but I keep coming back to the following line:

'We expect business to settle down to a higher level ( HIGHER LEVEL ) than that previously achieved, but probably not as high as we are presently experiencing.'( AS THE RECORD BUSTING CURRENT PERIOD WE ARE 4 MONTHS IN )

This to me suggests they are not expecting revenue growth in the short term, perhaps a modest decline in 2018.
NOT SURE HOW YOU GET THAT

Other indicators Q1 sales and order book suggest a more positive outlook.......

My reading is that sales in last quarter were at record levels , but they expected them to slow somewhat and level off at a new higher level.
Therefore I pencil in plus 12% on t/o this year with a leap to 1.2 m in first half and circa 1.1 in second.

Tiger

[olliemagern] 29/1/2018 23:30

Queensland Australia is committing $4400m (£2500m) to build 75 trains over the next 30 years.
The first 15 trains are being built by Bombardier in india. Good to see LPA supplying them with components.

[cockerhoop] 29/1/2018 13:29

The results read pretty well but I keep coming back to the following line:

'We expect business to settle down to a higher level than that previously achieved, but probably not as high as we are presently experiencing.'

This to me suggests they are not expecting revenue growth in the short term, perhaps a modest decline in 2018.

Other indicators Q1 sales and order book suggest a more positive outlook.......

[buywell3] 24/1/2018 16:38

One would imagine the BOD will speak to the NOMAD / House Broker regarding updating guidance in the light of the following :-

Plus , profits and orders all increasing in circa double digits %'s

A P/E of 15 would be realistic for such a growth stock as LPA numbers are confirming

Hence forward guidance needs a visit.









Peter Pollock, Chief Executive, commented:



"The 2016 financial year marked a step change in the performance of the Group, and these record results for the 2017 financial year are confirmation that we are now established at this substantially increased level of activity. We have indeed moved on.



"Strong order entry during the year reflects the current buoyancy in the UK and export rail and other markets which the Group serves and underpins our expectation of further progress during the current financial year.



"Sales output in the first quarter is significantly ahead of the same period last year confirming the continuing growth potential of the business.



Outlook

Last year finished full bore and this has continued into the current financial year. We expect business to settle down to a higher level than that previously achieved, but probably not as high as we are presently experiencing. We have orders on hand and projects for which we have been selected which, together with substantial opportunities for new business, will allow us to maintain and grow the business over the next few years. As we have won more business, we have had the very pleasant task of enhancing our capabilities to satisfy this demand. We look forward to similar opportunities in the future.



The strong start to the current financial year bodes well for the year as a whole, sustaining the progress we have made over the last two years.



We look forward to the future with increasing optimism and confidence.

[castleford tiger] 24/1/2018 10:57

ffs will edit it

[gersemi] 24/1/2018 06:52

It's Hear, hear (as in, 'Hear him, hear him') not 'here, here'..

[olliemagern] 23/1/2018 23:58

W H Ireland are trying to f/c Y19, before they get a sensible f/c for Y18.
Chocolate Fireguard springs to mind.

[castleford tiger] 23/1/2018 16:10

2018-09-30
24.70 0.00 14.30p 12.0 3.4 4% 2.70p 1.6% FORECAST

Basic earnings per share was up 17.1% at 14.40p achieved 2017

What is the point. Is it just lazy?

Frustrating unless we miss the bigger picture

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 23/1/2018 15:57

Thank you.

What a poor note.
How can you leave 2018 e unchanged when you have achieved the forecast a year early!

Me sees value here and I wonder if someone has made an approach?

Tiger

[rivaldo] 23/1/2018 15:10

WH Ireland themselves say today they've been very conservative with their forecasts, leaving them unchanged at 14.3p EPS for this year at present (thx for the note mate).

They do at least say that "fair value" is "closer to 200p":

"WHI view: we leave 2018E forecasts unchanged at this point, although arguably this is being somewhat prudent; our new 2019E numbers this morning are based on some very modest top line growth (+1%) reflecting limited visibility at this stage. Although the shares have re-rated since our last update in November, they can still be acquired on a current year P/E of 12x and we continue to see fair value closer to 200p."

[interceptor2] 23/1/2018 09:56

CT, Maybe my post wasn't as clear as it should have been, but yes I agree the second half was much stronger than the first. I was just using the exceptional gain to try and highlight how much stronger the second half was.

Approximately 15% stronger in underlying profit growth from H1 to H2.

[castleford tiger] 23/1/2018 09:42

interceptor

I think the second half was stronger as exc costs took out that exc gain?

I am I right?
MM playing games here looking for shares.
Bought the dip again at 171
tiger

[meijiman] 23/1/2018 09:09

Very pleasing -clearly much good news was already baked in. Will be over £2 later this year.

[interceptor2] 23/1/2018 09:03

Pleasing results here particularly viewing the performance after a difficult first half which was boosted by a property gain.

But since then their trading has become stronger in the second half which has continued into the new financial year. Worth mentioning that H2 results were equal to H1 which included a £332k gain on a property sale, which shows the strength of trading in the second half.

AGM is due 21st March, the update on trading should be interesting.

[rivaldo] 23/1/2018 08:52

Excellent results - looks like at 14.4p EPS they beat expectations as olliemagern says. Gearing is low, order books are well up and prospects are rosy:

"Outlook

Our order book and prospects in our home and export markets are very positive indicators. The current financial year has started well. We look forward to our medium and longer term future with great confidence."

"Sales output in the first quarter is significantly ahead of the same period last year confirming the continuing growth potential of the business."

[my retirement fund] 23/1/2018 08:47

Looks like its a classic sell the news play.Perhaps two poinds can be breached next year imo.

[cfro] 23/1/2018 08:02

Great results here. Sales output for the first quarter "significantly ahead".

[olliemagern] 23/1/2018 07:49

Results in line with my f/c and well ahead of broker f/c of 13.2p.
Expect eps around 16p next year, but W H Ireland f/c's for LPA have been far too low six times on the trot and no doubt will be too cautious again at about 15p.
A p/e 12 X 16p should mean around 192p next year.

[buywell3] 22/1/2018 18:34

Re my previous post about LPA looking at an acquisition that involved the upcoming surge in adoption of electric vehicles and associated charging requirements


Just how big an upsurge in this electric vehicles (EV) market can be seen from the interest by Melrose for GKN


''GKN said it now has a record £2bn order book for its high-tech components, which power the hybrid BMW i8 (nd Porsche 918 Spyder.

GKN said ''it sold £33m of stock last year but now expects this figure to hit £275m in 2020 and £500m in 2022.''


So the electric car and associated components market for such vehicles looks aet for :

A increase of in excess of 1500% in the next 5 years




The new LPA LED lighting division should benefit from this EV V Combustion engine changeover


BUT


With a 1500% change in technology V olde diesel and combustion engines

I urge the BOD of LPA to focus their next acquisition in the direction of Electric vehicles and associated technologies

[castleford tiger] 22/1/2018 17:27

I like that theory!

tiger