Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 27/4/2017 19:44

I've also held onto my shares and bought a few more at 145p when the market misinterpreted the last t/s.

WH Ireland have retained forecasts for £1.7m PBT & 13.2p EPS in the current year which exclude the exceptional gain. A PER of 11.9 on normalised earnings finds these very reasonably priced IMHO, especially on the back of today's positive t/s.

Broker indicates,

"Today’s H1 pre-close notes progress continues to be made with record sales of £10.8m and record order entry of £14.8m. H1 revenue represents a healthy 48% of our FY £22.5m expectation. The company also notes a one-off gain on property disposal of circa £300k although this is not included in our forecasts which adjust for exceptional items. Nonetheless, cash will benefit from receipt of the £530k sale proceeds.

LPA has been selected for the first time to supply connection systems to China for onwards re-export into Australia. Whilst not disclosed, we believe the Chinese partner to be CRRC, a fast growing supplier to the global rail industry.

LPA’s fortunes are substantially underpinned by investment in the rail industry, not just in the UK (Crossrail, Intercity Express etc) but also in Europe, Asia and Australia. H2 looks set to benefit from the strong order book and we are comfortable in retaining both our Buy rating on the stock and 200p price target (=15x current year P/E).

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Each investor buys for different reasons. I'm not a chartist but one that makes decisions mainly through fundamental analysis, while I appreciate WC's update & appreciate any charting knowledge that assists with timing.

I think it fair to say that we simply operate with different strategies.

I'm here for the long term irrespective of any short term price movements & will treat any weakness as a buying opportunity. Hope for a rise to the 200p (or higher ;-) in the fullness of time, but nonplussed if this were to happen in the short or medium term.

Kind regards,
GHF

[woodcutter] 27/4/2017 08:50

H1 turnover increased by around 3%. However the order intake has increase by nearly 7.5% so H2 looks promising and perhaps more importantly the trend in order intake seems to be improving.

woody

[cockerhoop] 27/4/2017 08:27

In the Agm statement they guided that margin would be lower than last year (Rev £10.48m PBT £780k) so I think it's pretty optimistic to expect £800,000 PBT in H1 from £10.8m of rev excluding the exceptional gain.

Order intake promising.

[thegreatgeraldo] 27/4/2017 08:23

Looking at H1 last year, not much progress on the turnover front.

[woodcutter] 27/4/2017 08:18

someone selling into the strength again. need who ever is selling to clear then the share price will really move.

absolutely convinced it's one of the insti's. We could be waiting some time for them to clear ................very annoying

woody

[melody9999] 27/4/2017 08:07

I'm holding too. Sold out at 197p early in year and then bought back at 165p when I believed the effect of a slower gallop had been priced in. Surprised we are down here but the statement today should set us back on an upward trend.

[woodcutter] 27/4/2017 07:56

And remember CT it's very well operationally geared too

wc

[woodcutter] 27/4/2017 07:54

well CT I've held mine, having said that I'm just a much a chartist as a Fundamentalist and the TA isn't compelling. However you have to look at the historic volatility in price swings and that's what kept me invested. It's been close to my stop position a few times.

It's a volatile ride but this mornings TS looks pretty strong to me and i'd expect some upside today. If there isn't any upside then sentiment is really bad.


woody

[castleford tiger] 27/4/2017 07:49

To add to my post I feel we will be close to 2 million rather than 1.55 last year pre exc.
We took a slow down in second half last year and a 125k hit on profit with a bad debt.
stripped out that was close to 1.7 m for the year. So a 18% uplift will get us there ,then we have the ex gain.
EPS on going basis be close to 16p and we may get very close to 20p with the gain in.

On 9x this years forecasts the shares are by no means expensive in my opinion.
Not sure what will happen this morning but sub 160 is just very silly cheap for this great little company.
Tiger

[castleford tiger] 27/4/2017 07:37

Should be looking at 800k for first half plus the 300k exc gain.

Still of the opinion these are worth 200p

tiger

[chadders] 27/4/2017 07:17

Strong update, management delivering as promised. Good news coming out of China.

[janeann] 27/4/2017 07:12

all seems very promising ..... I sense they regret the word gallop from a while back;

LPA is pleased to announce that the sale of its former lighting factory in Normanton, in West Yorkshire was completed in March. Proceeds of £0.53m have been received, realising an exceptional gain of circa £0.3m, which will be reflected in the results for the half year ended 31st March 2017. The move to the new facility proceeded smoothly with minimal disruption and manufacturing is operating normally.

LPA is pleased to confirm that progress continues at pace, if not a full-blown gallop, with record orders entered at £14.8m and record sales of £10.8m being achieved during the first half, underpinning prospects for the year as a whole, and the longer term.

During April LPA has been selected, for the first time, to supply connection systems to China, for re-export on a significant project in Australia.

The board looks forward to the future with confidence

[olliemagern] 26/4/2017 18:53

The persistent selling is a bit disconcerting, but you can't blame Funds for generally reducing exposure to an overbought market that appears ripe for sharp setback this summer. Volume is relatively light, but that might only be because of the difficulty in selling more.

Naked Trader updates his portfolio tomorrow, he has a big influence on this small company, maybe some of his followers are pre-empting a possible cautious stance.
Maybe its chartists who see the 18 month uptrend has broken?
I wish one of todays sellers would explain why they are selling, because its a mystery to me.

[woodcutter] 26/4/2017 08:26

silverfern there are a couple of insti's invested here above the 3% (not sure if it's 5% now) declaration level. There may be others below that level

Hargreave Hale who have a habit of off loading small chunks when they've decided they've had enough.

Rights and Issues IT are also holders.

The selling seems to have lapsed so maybe it was, as you suggest, PI's getting stoppped out. If you look at the volatility price swings in this stock over the years then you would have frequently been stopped out if bought at the wrong time. It's not one for widows and orphans, you have to have a bit of resiliance and patience

aimho woody

post note: they're back, someone is definately unloading stock and i'm convinced it's one of the institutions they just haven't reached a notification level yet.

[silverfern] 13/4/2017 16:32

Woodcutter, a company with marketcap as low as LPA wont' attract institutions. People are selling because it's hitting stop losses, so it creates a knock on effect. If you think, as I do this company could do well then this is the time to top up.

[gleach23] 13/4/2017 16:16

Indeed he has added LPA to both his ISA and his SIPP

[gleach23] 13/4/2017 15:26

No stock available to buy online....flurry of buys on a Thursday afternoon suggest a Naked Trader tip perhaps? His update is due out today.

[meijiman] 13/4/2017 09:29

Let's hope so. This company is in danger of over promising and under delivering. It's better to do it the other way round.

[melody9999] 12/4/2017 21:40

turning point

[ansc] 12/4/2017 18:26

Watching with interest as I'd like to add a few more. Was hoping to see 140p but buyers are appearing once the 'bid' price hits 145p.

[woodcutter] 11/4/2017 15:12

can't help but think there's a persistent seller in he market, someone is dumping a few thousand at a time probably an institution trying to lighten their holding.

wc

[woodcutter] 10/4/2017 15:24

support at 140p it needs to hold that or it will go to 120p.

woody

[mickharkins1] 24/3/2017 13:53

I've been buying today. Bouncing off strong chart support imo.

[woodcutter] 24/3/2017 12:18

Big head and shoulder top formed and broken. it needs to break the neckline now to regain trend strength.

woody

[ansc] 21/3/2017 11:08

Pleasantly surprised to be able to buy back in (at £1.49) this morning, it appears that there is stock available. Thought I'd made a booboo by selling out (at £1.65) back in December but maybe not.

edit: My buy (2.5k) was marked as a sell by ADVFN, the Mingy Machs using 'smoke and mirrors' tactic as is so often their custom with small cap companies.