Loopup Share Discussion Threads

[leewain] 27/11/2020 07:49

Will go below £1 then

[ramridge] 27/11/2020 07:46

At a 100/ 105, this will be a steal, despite the increased risk profile

[donald pond] 27/11/2020 07:43

The indicative price is 100/105. I'd be surprised if we were allowed to buy there. Wouldn't be surprised if this gets taken over around 150/160, they clearly have something but management looks questionable

[alanpro1] 27/11/2020 07:39

Going to be a solid entry today by jittery holders who typically buy on spikes (£2.5+). Outlook statement is positive. Watch the mm's rob you today not letting anyone buy but filling orders on the cheap.

[leewain] 27/11/2020 07:34

Looks a bargain between 1.10 and 1.40.

[adamb1978] 27/11/2020 07:32

Does the tone of the RNS feel overly-bearish to others in light of the line later on which says:

"While trading is expected to remain challenging in the non-PS part of our Meetings business, this now represents just 14% of our total LoopUp Platform revenue"

[pratt2] 27/11/2020 07:31

Please don't say well done - I was sincerely hoping to be wrong as I m an investor here.No idea around SP, but likely to whipsaw initially as more people digest this. Overall though, even if we assume 100% churn from non PS, that's 7m off the table. With underlying growth in other bits, what will 2021 runrate look like. Recurring revenues are great for outlook but will reduce margins.I think I'd like to still think my previous estimates for 2021 are still a reasonable baseline assumption.More concerning here is credibility of management. Can they really deliver? Also what they plan on investing with the cash balance remains crucial. Let's hope it's value adding and not a mistake. The pipeline so far suggests something works, but this is no Gamma sadly.Multiples still remain low. I think market may surprise us today as 30% drop in market cap in the last month clearly suggests this was priced in imo.

[adamb1978] 27/11/2020 07:30

So that'll be around 15p EPS for the year?

[donald pond] 27/11/2020 07:26

To go from 33/12 in H1 to "not less than" 50/15 FY is bonkers though. Doesn't feel right to me.

[che7win] 27/11/2020 07:24

Well done Pratt, you were spot on.What is your thoughts on share price today?

[pratt2] 27/11/2020 07:23

So my assumptions weren't that stupid after all!

[rimau1] 27/11/2020 07:04

That explains the price fall. I was wrong on my forecasts sadly.

[apad] 26/11/2020 18:31

Good to know that its reputation and ease of use (feedback from the wealth management industry) has continued into the Teams add-on, mauricemonkey.
Ta.
apad

[maddox] 26/11/2020 18:17

Hi mauricemonkey - great to have personal market knowledge and experience shared here.

[mauricemonkey] 25/11/2020 22:39

Hey Apad,

I've no doubt that Salesforce would be able to add significant investment into Slack but the problem is this - most organisations using Salesforce are probably using some part of the Microsoft stack somewhere, whereas most organisations using part of the Microsoft stack won't be using Salesforce.
IMHO.

I work for a major IT services provider as an IT consultant in desktops. This time last year I'd never heard of Loop. Just recently I've seen several customers use its Teams integrated and phone based meeting systems. For that reason, maybe late admittedly, I've decided to take a position here. The company is clearly growing and gaining market share, and having used it, I can attest it seems to be a quality product.

Excited about the opportunity here :)

[rimau1] 25/11/2020 22:32

Pratt - £45m FY revenues is beyond silly and i mean no disrespect, Loop would have exceeded that by the end of Q3. Even the lazy analysts have £51m. I suggested to you 6 reasons a few posts back why H2 will actually exceed H1, which if you read it would have helped your assumptions on volume. i think your “model” needs a few tweaks....if you spend 30mins go back through this BB to April/May/June and Maddox, myself and a few others did a few deep dives on valuations here which will help.

[apad] 25/11/2020 21:59

The argument being put forward addresses your point, Maddox.
'Slack last said in October 2019 that it had more than 12 million daily active users. In October Microsoft said Teams had racked up 115 million daily active users."

The thesis is that a Salesforce (which is ten times the size of Slack) Slack combination would be able to compete with Teams.

apad

[maddox] 25/11/2020 21:56

Hi Pratt,

Useful exercise you've kicked off. I'm not nearly so pessimistic as to the H2 numbers. The Covid circumstances were present for four of the six months and I fail to see how the momentum created didn't follow through into H2. LOOP has a small stake of a large niche so I doubt that they've saturated the market! No doubt LOOP will have been selling as fast as they can and probably finding a receptive audience.

Vaccine on the way or not - I seem to be sitting in as a many remote meetings and conferences as I was in H1. Worse case I could foresee is for usage to plateau.

One factor that will dent revenue is a move to cheaper contracts from pay-as-you-go pricing, but I would expect that to be replaced by new customers.

At 154p and H1 declared eps of 13.9p = p/e 11 (incl. only 6 months earnings) if they deliver the same in H2 p/e = 5.5. Conservative I'd venture as the Covid impact is supportive for the full six months (not four as per H1) and ignoring any Direct Routing contribution (which may in fact be negative due start-up/up-front costs).

If I'm 50% out that would put LOOP on p/e 7.4 - still looking ridiculously cheap.

[maddox] 25/11/2020 21:26

Hi Apad,

MS Teams is beating the pants off Slack - to the extent that Slack has filed an antitrust complaint against Microsoft in the European Union, accusing the tech giant of unfairly bundling its rival MS Teams product with its cloud-based productivity suite MS365.

I use Slack it's a nice product but it's difficult to compete against a behemoth like Microsoft if it targets your market space.

[apad] 25/11/2020 20:31

www.cnbc.com/2020/11/25/slack-shares-jump-following-report-of-possible-salesforce-acquisition.html

More potential competition for Teams.

apad