Lonrho Share Discussion Threads

[twixy] 20/3/2013 21:58

You're not a fan then, Kibuse? ;-)

[kibu] 20/3/2013 20:50

"Paid-for posting on BBs"


A poster known as 'MUFC the best' over on the blue and white has been having a bit of a dig about FTI Consulting - the rather large outfit that Lonrho bungs for their PR and 'social media engagement skills.' Edward Westropp and Georgina Bonham collect. He reckons to have unmasked one of their BB aliases. Considering Westropp's expensive schooling, if it's him, he either failed English or is using a heavy bushel. Westropp was at school with the future Duchess of Cambridge. Unlikely though that he could use that 'tie on the river.'

kibu

[deepvalueinvestor] 20/3/2013 20:50

Thanks kibu, a 16% fall looks a bit extreme after this news though although credibility is the issue.

[kibu] 20/3/2013 20:47

A few points about today's "Easyhotel" Lonrho RNS:

The Lonrho/Easygroup "MFA" was announced back in Spring 2011.

Lonrho signed a 30-year lease on part of the Stuttafords building in Johannesburg in 2012 to develop and open their first "Easyhotel" in late 2012.

The first Lonrho/Easygroup hotel is not opening at the Stuttafords building.

Next Tuesday, the Hotel Lamunu will rebrand to "Easyhotel." It is half the size of what Lonrho originally announced but at least it's always been orange and probably won't need repainting.

Staff interviewed today appeared 'undewhelmed' by the news.



kibu

[deepvalueinvestor] 20/3/2013 19:29

Hello everyone. Sorry that you have all taken a hit. I am not a shareholder but might buy a stake over the next week if the share price remains under pressure. The level of the selling probably reflects one institution clearing their books. This sort of capitulation is not always a bad sign but it did make me wonder if they have debt problems. I spoke to management today and several analysts and concluded that the debt looks manageable at the moment but is something we need to monitor.

I would be interested in hearing the thoughts of holders over the next few days and will obviously look back at previous posts. I am bearish on equity markets but I have wanting to gain a foothold in Africa for years and like the agricultural side of their business ( from field to shop). This may indeed be an opportunity but further digging required....

[ndege kidogo] 20/3/2013 19:05

DL; could be the guys who got paid 15m shares a week or two back on their AFEX earnout. They were due to be paid in US$ cash but presumably were offered Lonrho paper or money in a Cyprus bank account as the only alternative. Given their earnout was only worth about US$ 1.5m compared with the US$ 5m cap it seems that AFEX has turned out well below expectations. No surprise there, then.

[tommyjnewton] 20/3/2013 18:54

Diamondi1 said:
Strangely Moneyweek gives them a mention again in Friday's issue (Talking about Africa.) but with a different slant. I quote.
You could also consider firms with diversified operations across the continent. Lonrho (LSE: LONR)is a fairly controversial conglomerate with interests in everything from agriculture to airlines.
That's all they say. Perhaps they too are rethinking Lonrho's prospects?

TJM:
All I will say is VERY VERY interesting.
They used to be the silly lapdogs.

[davidlloyd] 20/3/2013 17:11

The share price decline could also suggest that someone is a desperate or forced seller.

DL

[ndege kidogo] 20/3/2013 16:33

Even if the first pan-African flophouse achieves 100% occupancy rates with easyGirls and their paying loins, it won't be enough to compensate for those other less productive bushes and for those undersized loins of hake.
The recent inexorable decline in the share price tells you two things; bad news just around the corner, and those with their ears closer to the jungle drums already know what it is. It's enough to make a regulator choke on a peach stone.

[davidlloyd] 20/3/2013 12:48

Wierd?

DL

[hvs] 20/3/2013 12:44

Ask the aussie with a nice and now flying

[robertjt] 20/3/2013 12:43

why the sudden drop today?

[hvs] 18/3/2013 08:45

Why is we not flying ????

The Aussie got away with a very nice wad.

[diamond1] 18/3/2013 08:41

Strangely Moneyweek gives them a mention again in Friday's issue (Talking about Africa.) but with a different slant. I quote.

You could also consider firms with diversified operations across the continent. Lonrho (LSE: LONR)is a fairly controversial conglomerate with interests in everything from agriculture to airlines.

That's all they say. Perhaps they too are rethinking Lonrho's prospects?

[kibu] 14/3/2013 18:04

'Maybe "buccaneering" was the right word?'
14.3.13

"A buccaneering stock for adventurous investors" was how MoneyWeek headlined a feature on Lonrho a year ago. Calculating an "intrinsic worth of more than 15p a share" they wrote "BUY at 10.25p." At the time I criticised the article as being top-heavy on the hubris of African statistics and showing little insight into Lonrho's financials.

The writer quoted "(2011) operating profits soaring to £12.2m" adding that they "were slightly flattered by a £17m 'book' gain from 200,000 fruit trees yet to mature." Slightly?

Lonrho's management has had seven years of fruitless adventure: an enormous hole in the P&L (expanded annually by 'extraordinary' figures); share price lower than in 2005; no prospect of dividends; damaged management credibility; and a far from healthy cash position. It's an unattractive body corporate kept alive through regular equity placing transfusions.

MoneyWeek wrote that February 2012 was a "cheap entry point." One wonders about the present worth of the "intrinsic 15p." At 5.95p on the bid, a price 45% lower now, it's still not cheap but certainly more realistic.



kibu

[gfrae] 14/3/2013 17:36

Have'nt held these shares for while. Anyone know what's happened to their Beira investment?,the one they bought off Lonzim.

[tenapen] 13/3/2013 18:31

Hi Tommy, I hope it does not go anywhere near 3p, I was just being 'smart' :( not clever. I would buy more at 3p but i am happy with my ISA holding if not the 6p share price.

[tommyjnewton] 13/3/2013 10:33

Re Tenapen
"In for more at 3p if it gets that low"

Yes, it might be tempting but:
Problem with that would be that you can guarantee a dilution at 2p if it got that low! Lonrho has to date been financed by hats being passed round.

[muffinhead] 11/3/2013 13:42

Spot China's "Hot Money" Time-Bomb

[muffinhead] 11/3/2013 11:19

Hi tenapen
Charts are just a windsock and never can be relied on to forecast accurately. However fundamentals come out in the charts first as people with inside knowledge buy or sell

I have no position here but I check in occasionally. You know me long enough that I have a fetish for the downside!! Companies and investors have a psychological bias to the upside and want to hit dream analyst targets. However shares travel twice as fast to the downside!

Just my thoughts if China slows...

1. sentiment and momentum of investment inflows from China will slow
2. demand for commodities...associated products and services will decline to a more sustainable level

Barclays research ....China has to transition to a consumer economy


China is building vast uninhabited ghost cities. The infrastructure/property boom has to come to an end sometime. Shanghai people are paying 40 times earnings for a flat, many times bigger than our recent experience in the west. It's a bubble that needs to burst before the next consumer stage of economic development of China can begin

Lonrho..some parts could be affected eg. hotels and support services imo

60mins video


If China property bubble bursts, there is going to be a whole lot of pain in ALL markets

chart of iron ore looks like a burst bubble...property and infrastructure will follow imo


When the rich Chinese loose money on property they will even sell gold investments to make up for their leveraged (40 times average income!!)losses

[hvs] 10/3/2013 13:28

Its going to FLY maybe to AUSTRALIA