The Local Shopping Reit Share Discussion Threads

[hindsight] 28/7/2017 13:04

Someone is being cautious as been selling for 2 days, now at 31p so ~ -19% on sales including selling costs

[hindsight] 27/7/2017 13:28

Thank you Tilton Boy

That helps abit as now make it ~ -18% on sales including selling costs to the present price

[tiltonboy] 27/7/2017 13:15

hindsight,

Debt should now been down to around £25m, giving a gearing level of 44%.

[redhill9] 27/7/2017 12:55

hillofwad27 Jul '17 - 12:22 - 2339 of 2339 0 0
Posters here are still labouring under the misunderstanding that all the cherries are stil left

I wasn't, for one.

I'd been working on the admittedly broad assumption that future sales experience (net of costs) would be close to the experience since December 2016. As the latest NAV is still quoted as 43p I didn't think that an unreasonable approach, although some allowance for lower performance suggests a discount to NAV of, say, 10% giving 39p.

I think your 36p maybe just too cautious but you clearly are cautious regarding LSR as I remember you selling at around 28p not too long ago?

[hillofwad] 27/7/2017 12:22

Posters here are still labouring under the misunderstanding that all the cherries are stil left That is not the caase according to West End investment agents what is being shifted out is fairly represenative

You can take it as read that there are no hidden gems which are likely to greatly exceed book value as they would have been winkled out .

There are also a number of proprties which were bought by way of a sale and leaseback whose value is depedent on length of lease and quality of covenant

As every year peels off the calendar these are getting less and less valuable as the lease expiry hoves into view
Although sales are likely to be achieved with small discounts to book values after selling cosst at some stage when they portfolio is so reduced they will have to offer significant discount to get rid
There is also Interno'.s exit fee

Thats why 36p loks to be possibly th best oucome here

[hindsight] 27/7/2017 12:07

Could anyone clarify the proprty gearing now. From the 31/03 accounts it was 66m vs 42m and would it be fair to say 61m vs 37m with the sales since. As such we are geared 1.6x to over/under NAV of including costs sale prices achieved. Im just trying to get a number on how bad it has to be to get the present 32p share price back. At 1.6x, I have ~ -16%

[redhill9] 24/7/2017 17:59

Thanks tiltonboy, your range of 36p to 43p suggests my 39p may not be far off! Shows how tricky this is to value, however your lower figure of 36p would still give an uplift of 10% from the current share price which I'd find acceptable within 12 months, especially with the possibility of maybe 1p or 2p higher.

[tiltonboy] 24/7/2017 15:39

If you had asked that question prior to the July auctions, I would have felt increasingly confident of an NAV close to 43p, however if you extrapolate the July results across the remaining properties you might end up with a figure closer to 36p. Question is, was July a one-off?

What disappointed me, was that a few of the "better" properties either did not sell, or fetched less than I had hoped for.

We are now in the summer lull for auctions, but may get a few away by way of private treaty.

[redhill9] 24/7/2017 15:02

Extrapolating the recent (since December 2016) sales performance realised losses and costs as an average % against the reported March NAV of 43p still seems to me to give a current/prospective NAV of around 40p, or say 39p for caution. Problem is of course the average sales experience over that period may not be typical of the residual assets.

Does anyone have a significantly different figure than 39p as their prospective NAV for the next 12 months (I'm assuming 12 months as the period of total sales)?

[tiltonboy] 24/7/2017 14:10

dave,

I haven't yet, but will be doing so.

[davebowler] 24/7/2017 13:57

Hi tiltonboy, a bit off topic but have you looked at the new Triple Point REIT that is being promoted as similar to Civitas?

[tiltonboy] 24/7/2017 13:42

Marginally better than I was expecting, but still a poor result. I just hope July was a one-off!

[frazboy] 14/7/2017 11:12

Thanks for your feedback Tilton.

HOW, you could be right, jury is out for now.

[hillofwad] 14/7/2017 09:54

Tilts

It really is hit and miss with short leases at auction You -just hope that there is an investor and the incumbent tenant battling it out on an individual property

Guess that baker Copelands up North in the last auctions was buying in their freeholds I was suprised that clean parade in Airdrie failed to sell

Some very good prices being sold on other lots I dont think the auction market is softening

Still think that some posters here are being over optimistic on the value of the remaining stock in the portfolio and not factoring in sufficent discount. Still think that 34/35p is the absolute tops here

[tiltonboy] 13/7/2017 16:33

That's an understatement!

[hillofwad] 13/7/2017 16:32

disappointing results

[tiltonboy] 13/7/2017 13:55

frazboy,

A good question, but I do not know the answer. There definitely seems to be a softening of interest, and with the 10 year gilt yield ticking up, there might be an argument for the institutional market to soften a little, but not down at this level.

It might be too early to make assumptions, but it doesn't feel as good as it was.

[frazboy] 13/7/2017 13:50

Tilton,

... tricky question, do you think the market for commercial property is more subdued post election? Or is this just a seasonal swing? I watched the first two properties go through the last auction and was a bit underwhelmed by the interest levels; the second property in Plymton is still for sale, for 300k on the Allsop site (275k was the max bid IIRC) but this doesn't compare well with the 418k guide! I did a web search to determine how that auction (and thus the market) compared with previous auctions but found nothing useful.

[skyship] 13/7/2017 13:42

Sorry to duplicate....will leave it to you Tilts...

[skyship] 13/7/2017 13:41

LOT 12: Went for 200k v. 175k guide...

[tiltonboy] 13/7/2017 13:40

A slightly better result on Lot 12, going for 200k v 175k guide.

[tiltonboy] 13/7/2017 13:16

Well, that's a poor start. Not particularly close on the first lot...which I hoped would fetch a premium!

[badtime] 10/7/2017 14:32

Welcome back ..good time?

[tiltonboy] 10/7/2017 14:25

Rather hoped that would go for quite a bit more than guide!

[skyship] 10/7/2017 13:27

The Exmouth property sold after...