The Local Shopping Reit Share Discussion Threads

[hillofwad] 11/6/2018 06:38

Simon Thompson forgetting of course that at the death they will be wrapping up a mixed bag of properties effectively at a "forced sale price" to a buyer who no doubt will require a healthy discount .
We have seen a rapidly changing value landscape for "book valuations" where sale prices achieved can be easily 10% either way changing quarter by quarter.It's not an exact science and the revised valuations are already really historic. Next lot of sales will be interesting as the market is currently drifting downwards.

[tiltonboy] 10/6/2018 17:51

Missed Highworth as it was down as Investment Property. Wouldn't have spotted Colwyn Bay.

[strathroyal] 10/6/2018 12:36

tiltonboy - Just 2 more. Highworth is also back up at a lower price (Lot 158) and Lot 198 is also LSR I believe. This has been on the Beresford Adams commercial site for sometime (along with one or two others) again at a higher price.

Hopefully these price reductions are in line with the revised valuations in the HY report.

Finally, did think we'd see a few more sales here as the report suggested up to 40 properties being sold in this round so presumably there will be quite a few with Acuitus as we seem to have abandoned Pugh lately.

[tiltonboy] 09/6/2018 22:57

I will rely on strath for an exhaustive list, but these appear to be ours: 154, 155, 165, 174, 175, 178, 183, 184, 185, and 186.

Warwick and Southampton are back in after not selling previously. About 1.5m in total.

[jagworth] 05/6/2018 23:19

Simon Thompson (Investors Chronicle 1 June)

“So, if you followed my advice to buy the shares at 31.6p in March, I feel you are on track to achieve my 36p cash realisation value estimate and can expect news on the process for a capital return once debt has been eliminated” ...

[strathroyal] 02/6/2018 10:08

deepvalue2015 - I've commented recently on here that you can never tie up the latest update with previous updates so no surprise here. However if you look at the Condensensed Consolidated income Statement the correct loss on disposal of Investment Properties is £902k so if you use that figure in your calculation rather than £200k, it balances.

[deepvalue2015] 02/6/2018 08:38

One more question for the accountants out there. How much of the balance sheet assets include rental deposits? Presumably these are not distributable!

[deepvalue2015] 02/6/2018 08:28

Does anyone know what kind of calculator the directors used when they published the interim report?? Maybe its some kind of new property math I haven't yet heard about?
Here is my problem: On page 3-4 of the Latest Interims they show a table of how they get to the 'Recurring'/Adjusted Profits. No matter what I use I cannot seem to get
-2,870 + 2,103 + 200 to equal +135! Should we really be trusting people who cant add?
Is it legal to publish false accounts in the UK? Any advice? Thanks.

[gfrae] 31/5/2018 09:02

Very,very unlikely,they are in close season.

[hillofwad] 31/5/2018 06:15

Perhaps it's Thal hovering up a few . Certainly soon the company will be debt free and only a very modest further investment is required to take this out.Otherwise it has been a complete waste of time and money for them.

[skyship] 29/5/2018 17:10

Interesting that there should be quite a few buyers today @ 31.92p...

[sleepy] 29/5/2018 12:38

Thanks Tilts!

[hindsight] 29/5/2018 09:51

Personally pencilled in a risk adjusted 34p now down from 35p, as such surprised buyer on book today at 31.2p, would have thought 30p more sensible

[tiltonboy] 29/5/2018 08:36

You can buy them at Selco

[eeza] 29/5/2018 08:22

Fly in the ointment.

[sleepy] 29/5/2018 08:17

hillofwad - what’s a spanner?

[hillofwad] 29/5/2018 07:54

Don't forget the high level of vacancy.with empty rates ,insurance, security etc.Very shortly the point will be reached when the running costs will match the rental income..So I guess Allsopps will be asked to bundle up the remainder and seek best bids This will be a motley collection with a few spanners Every chance a healthy discount will be required to shift. The upside is limited Best 33p and maybe Thalassa will come onThey could borrow 75% Already have 16% so let,s assume valuation at 39p they only need to borrow a few quid to buy in

[stemis] 26/5/2018 11:23

Interesting point. So, all company announcements after 31st March, that referred to a sales price relative to NAV, were actually referring to a different NAV?

Basically yes. Valuation is at net realisable value. So even if the sale takes place after the 31 March they should account for any loss in the interims at 31 March (since the sale establishes the NRV). When they were originally announcing the sales (before they released the interims), the loss was calculated with reference to the valuation at 30 September 2017.

So, to answer your question, yes, they've already taken the losses on post 31 March sales in the interims.

[frazboy] 25/5/2018 15:57

'I'm assuming that the post balance sheet asset sales have already been written down to realisable value. 'Interesting point. So, all company announcements after 31st March, that referred to a sales price relative to NAV, were actually referring to a different NAV?I hope you're being pessimistic on the remaining discounts to NAV on remaining assets but on an operational level I think you're being optimistic so I get a similar outcome. 34.something is what I'm expecting too. Disappointing day, those write downs, essentially knocked 2p off my expected returned. Strath - I'm away for the weekend but I can send you a document on all recent sales (this financial year) if you like, on Monday? I went through it with a fine toothcomb last night.Have a good weekend all

[tiltonboy] 25/5/2018 15:44

Some good comments with viewpoints on both sides.

The NAV is certainly softer than I would have hoped and expected, and gives little leeway now for discounts to be taken on future sales that will impinge on a decent result for shareholders. The hope must be, therefore, that the written-down values can be achievable.

There must be some real dross in the sub 100k portfolio, where 40 properties only average £66.5k each. There is a void rate of 13.7%, and a residential element of about £4m, which I have no views on.

I'm not as bearish as some, but have never really wavered from thinking that 35p will be the absolute tops. If it's 33/34p I can live with that, given where I paid.

[stemis] 25/5/2018 13:51

Current asset value is £31,968k or 38.75p per share. I'm assuming that the post balance sheet asset sales have already been written down to realisable value. There are three exposures to further reductions in NAV:-

Operating losses (i.e. when rentals not longer cover continuing costs of operating the company). I've assumed that's cumulative net zero from here.

Further asset losses on sale - I've assumed 10% (c. £2.5m or 3.0p a share)

Wind up costs - I've assumed £250k (= 0.3p a share)

So a net outcome of around 35.5p.

Current buy price, with costs, is just a shade over 32p. So 10.5% over a rather indeterminate timescale. Bit marginal so not a holder at the moment....

[strathroyal] 25/5/2018 13:01

My problem with these updates is that I can never balance the numbers from one to the next or today the commentary on progress.

I see that in yesterday's update LSR planned to sell 40 props by auction and also have a number of private treaty sales, including small portfolios, in hand.

Today, according to the HY report they plan to sell 40 assets by 30/09/18 and also look to make further progress with individual small portfolio sales. Hopefully the HY comments were written before yesterday's update.

Finally, I think scburbs has a valid point (2692). Current assets at 31/03/18 are £18.9M and Total Liabilities £12.2M so, all things being equal, shareholder funds are £6.7M (which should be cash in due course) and property assets of £24.8M. Presumably the recent auction failures (Warwick, Highworth, Southampton) are now in the book at their likely sale value and Rotherham (from yesterday) as well, so 36p still looks a likely outcome.

[my retirement fund] 25/5/2018 12:21

Just to clarify, anyone who thinks Skyships 36p is likely. Sorry 33p at best 30p more likely after all costs. IMO.I wouldn't be touching this with a bargepole.

[frazboy] 25/5/2018 12:14

very much what they giveth on one hand (yesterday's announcement) they taketh away on the other (today!).

it's still quite stunning to see such a dramatic NAV reduction on the remaining 'core' as at March 2018. When I think about it I'm not even sure why the re-valuation was done, not that it would have made any difference to the terminal NAV, but it doesn't seem to me that it was needed except perhaps for the bank loan...? I guess it stopped us building up our hopes.

[topvest] 25/5/2018 12:10

Blimey. What a dog this has been! Just never any upside.