Local Radio Share Discussion Threads

[grahamite2] 17/1/2006 12:31

Many thanks krishall.

Local radio isn't what it was, but sadly, it couldn't be or they'd be losing money hand over fist. A modern station is an astonishing sight for someone who knows what they looked like 30 years ago; they keep costs down to next to nothing.

Perhaps the long-term problem is that radio, like television, has been valued at a premium, with enormous P/Es, but that era is passing. It is becoming less of a glamour sector.

I did nicely with Forever Broadcasting and shall probably come in here - if you're right about 60p by the end of the year that would do me fine. But as most trades look to have been sells for a while now I don't think there's any hurry.

[scotswhaehae] 17/1/2006 12:19

mr grahamite2... 'reasons' for a sale are never given...if u trawl through the volume there clearly were massive sales (and buys) on the key day in December and the couple of days following...I dont know where u got the phrase 'as a result of a change in policy'...

when u say 'is there another reason' u bemuse me...what else other than big sales could be the case??

clearly, from the trading statements alone it is clear times are tough...but u must sort out whether the share price has over reacted...

I've just enjoyed a great few days with ARG as a similar heavy overreaction downwards has rebounded, with much further to go.

With luck etc that will be the case eventually with this one too!

Good luck all!

[krishall] 17/1/2006 12:10

Grahamite... see my previous post #29. Source for that was the weekly trade publication 'Radio Magazine'.

Did notice there was a significant sale a last week (250,000 shares I think) at 38p.

Was optimistic on TLR as they are one of the better local radio groups. Not so optimistic now. This sub-sector would seem to be in decline overall. Decreased advertising being experienced amongst all the groups. More community stations taking away listeners. The younger generation prefering mp3 / ipods to radio.
The commercial local radio market has itself partly to blame for it's own decline - with strict program formats controlled by computer playout systems choosing the music plus more syndicated and group shows - then this is somewhat against what local radio should be for... The main players have brought the decline of local radio on themselves. DAB was a potential lifeline but they seem to be screwing this up as well. Just my own thoughts etc...

[grahamite2] 17/1/2006 11:50

A further thing: the fall in December was meant to be the result of a major holder selling as a result of a change in policy, but I can find no RNS to reflect this. Is there another reason?

I'm looking to invest and all help would be appreciated.

[grahamite2] 17/1/2006 11:42

Would it not be a good idea to publish the accounts on the website, and give an e-mail contact?

A business based on advertising should have a better take on the PR aspects of investor relations.

[rambutan2] 05/1/2006 14:09

krishall, what was artemis's previous holding?

[krishall] 05/1/2006 13:21

Seems all quiet on this particular board. Therefore I presume not too many retail investors interested in this one. At least some institutional interest with the announcements that Artemis and Perpetual have increased there holdings in TLR. I think varios negative factors with this stock have been overdiscounted. Not going to be a multibagger but I would hope for an inrease in share price to about 60p by the end of the year.

[krishall] 01/1/2006 10:32

At least price has stabilized. Appears fall was due to rumours that the company is considering raising cash through a discounted rights issue. It needs to cover the costs of new local radio station start-ups it won licences for and is interested in purchasing some of the GCap stations that are up sale.

One source of income is it's joint owned saleshouse - First Radio Sales. This also represents former Wireless Group stations now owned by Ulster TV. So if Ulster decided that it was interested in TLR as well then we might see some reasonable share price rebound.

[samg99] 20/12/2005 14:53

Pity that KLWT has widened his spread to 9p - I'd have thought 5p (what the other 3 MMs are in) was quite wide/bad enough at this price level.....

[scotswhaehae] 20/12/2005 14:05

Definitely buyers now as the seller clears...

[scotswhaehae] 16/12/2005 15:11

Looks like the entire line sold on wednesday has been bought at 42.5p...great business for the broker

Looking very good!

[ladyfarmer] 16/12/2005 12:58

Surely that was a buy at 42.5? 1 million get sold and it drops by 40% but when 100,000 are bought nothing happens? If this isn't to rebound quickly surely it's a takeover target? A lot of consolidation in the industry and a cheap way to pick up licences.

[krishall] 16/12/2005 11:23

This is one of the better 'local radio' groups - mainly because it does own true 'local' stations. Personally I believe that the true local stations will be hit less than the the bigger groups as regards revenue loss due to alternative advertising spend(e.g. internet). Unless there are any skeletons in the cupboard that haven't come out yet then yesterdays mark down was overdone - it was a case of wrong sector ,wrong time.
Think GWR/Cap have lost the plot which also hasn't helped with sector sentiment. Big isn't necessarily better for local radio - and I think that the management of TLR are aware of this and will expand in a positive manner. KH.

[scotswhaehae] 16/12/2005 08:16

many thanks...

picking up satisfactorily!

interesting situation imho...

good luck all!

[ladyfarmer] 15/12/2005 22:59

TLR's Company Secretary called me back at lunchtime - sorry I've been out or would have updated before. She said a large holder had taken a policy decision to get out and had sold a big block cheaply. There was no negative news from the company (although the industry is not in favour)so they don't have an explanation for this drop that the company knew about and they would be talking to their brokers to see if any comment should or could be made.

[scotswhaehae] 15/12/2005 16:57

looks like they found a buyer for 100000...u know that COULD be it seen to if it was mixed buyers/sellers last night...we shall see!

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 15:40

well i was right SamG99 wish i held out liitle longer

[bruce the goldfish] 15/12/2005 15:31

Could be Scots, and I hope for the sake of the shareholders it is...

[scotswhaehae] 15/12/2005 15:25

Maybe a buyer for the line has been found...

Nice tick-up coming...maybe its real mr btg...

[bruce the goldfish] 15/12/2005 15:22

Expected tick-up imo to suck in a few more buyers...

[samg99] 15/12/2005 15:22

Beginning to motor. Now or never?

[rambutan2] 15/12/2005 14:45

views on the balance sheet?

looks like it will need some cash before long. hmmm.

[rambutan2] 15/12/2005 14:39

very strange.