Local Radio Share Discussion Threads

[sipptrader] 15/12/2005 13:42

is there a dilution of some sort on its way?

[scotswhaehae] 15/12/2005 13:18

u might prefer WHI which imho is on the cusp of a major break out upwards!

good luck all!

[samg99] 15/12/2005 13:00

A lot of sense in the last 2 posts, even though they are not saying quite the same thing.

35p seems a hell of a discount to yesterday's market price. The fact that none of the MMs felt confident that they could sell on a large chunk at anywhere near that earlier price tells me one thing: that TLR was almost certainly overvalued at yesterday's price!

Whether it is now good or even fair value now is another question. On the face of it, it seems a bargain; but what seems like a bargain today can often seem expensive in the future!

So like others on this thread, I shall be watching this carefully. The spread is a bit of a horror at this price, so I shall need to feel a lot more confident that the price is in an uptrend before hopping on board. And as Bruce says, the MMs may well play their usual tricks and traps to lure PIs on board, only to pull the price down again. So, if in doubt, this is one I shall leave to others to buy.....

[scotswhaehae] 15/12/2005 12:42

The main game will not be 'bottom fishing' punters but institutions ...who will need reassurance b4 topping up...its certainly intriguing...and of course this is a consolidating sub sector so investment bankers will no doubt be that much nearer to hatching a deal...

best guess imho is that there is more selling to come but if a decent buyer can be found then these will be 50p plus in a blink...

[bruce the goldfish] 15/12/2005 12:33

If those 900k shares were all sold at 35p then there is going to be one heck of an overhang to clear. WINS take on the lot at a deeply discounted price to sell them onto the general market at a tidy mark-up of nearly 15% at an offer of 40p.

The 900k shares is circa 2% of the shares in issue - so it is quite a sizeable sale by any standard, the main questions being 'is there more to come? and at what price would the MMs take them on?'.

Also look out for the common trick the MMs often pull, the next movement may be to something like 40-42 to suck in some buyers expecting the start of the recovery, only to slash both the bid and offer once these buyers dry up.

All of this is obviously imo, one to watch maybe but looking at the recent and past trading history this is not an actively traded share...

BTG

[grahamite2] 15/12/2005 12:16

scotswhaehae, thanks for setting this up.

The way this share price has gone I can't understand why this isn't in my portfolio, it would be right at home.

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 12:08

SamG99 that was my mate selling the 3k - you convinced me on the negative side - besides there is only one bid at 39p and the next is 35p - a bit dodgy. But i feel this may rise sharply in the next day or so.

[scotswhaehae] 15/12/2005 11:50

well we 'know' that 900000 were traded after hours at 35p last night...not clear whether that is a 500000 sell and 400000 buy or simply 900000 sell!

there may be more from the seller b4 the position is cleared...who knows...

got a sort of tip in the FT a few weeks ago...and fundamentals APPEAR ok with the proviso that advertising is clearly difficult at the moment...

maybe safer to wait a while but these were placed at 95p not all that long ago!

good luck all!

[samg99] 15/12/2005 11:39

xxxadv - I agree the fundamentals look very good.

But I learned many years ago - the expensive way! - that when the fundies look great and the share price is in remorseless decline, it is usually the share price that turns out to be the more correct indicator, hence my caution at present.

[samg99] 15/12/2005 11:37

Bruce - great minds....;-)

Yes, on the old TLR thread (now superseded by this one because it was actually headed by TLS info) someone said they'd contacted the company and its brokers but hadn't had a response yet.

Hmmm. Looks very fishy doesn't it - EDIT, sorry that wasn't intended to be a pun!!

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 11:35

Recent Highlights seem promising


* EBITDA positive before exceptional costs

* Total revenue up 21% at #19.8m with 2% like-for-like growth, ahead of
other quoted radio groups

* Outstanding performance by First Radio Sales (FRS) with national sales
up 11% against market forecast down 1%

* FRS joint venture with UTV established fourth largest national sales
point representing 13% of local commercial airtime

* 5 licence wins, Blackburn, Durham, Barrow, Swindon, Northallerton

* Enterprise division summer concert series established

* On budget for October and November 2005

[bruce the goldfish] 15/12/2005 11:26

Sam, I have no position either but suspect that someone is in the know somewhere, hence the sharp fall on apparently no news. Has anyone actually contacted the company to find out the reason for the fall?

As for WINS, I was of exactly the same thinking...

BTG

[samg99] 15/12/2005 11:03

Thanks, scots.....

WINS is pushing the bid up and up but none of the other market makers are following suit....they're all 4p below WINS. I have a feeling WINS may be trying to suck in the mug punters, only to pull the plug a bit later in time-honoured fashion.

Alternatively, maybe he knows something the other MMs don't know, and the price is a bargain at this level....

But why the huge markdown first thing?

To sum up, WTF is going on??

I have no position in this stock at the moment.

[samg99] 15/12/2005 10:51

xxxadv - well I could buy a ridiculously large amount of TLR, but I'm afraid I can think of better ways to reduce my future capital gains liability ;-)

scotswhaehae - many thanks for creating a new thread on TLR. May I suggest that we continue our discussions on it, avoiding the confusion of this header. This will be my last comment on this thread; henceforth I'll post on your new thread.

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 10:47

SamG99 - the problem is that i have used up my dealing limit - i cant buy at the mo - but i would have at 40p max!

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 10:28

samg99 - a few shares at 40 odd pence is not going to make you bankrupt, i would not take the same risk if they were 1-2 pounds.

[alwaysbanking] 15/12/2005 10:22

TLR is LOCAL RADIO - TLS is Talarius

TLR is going down

TLS is going up

Talking in the terms of Local Bookmakers - Watch your bets.

[samg99] 15/12/2005 10:13

Well I like to know what kind of risk I'm taking. I've made a few bob this week from some carefully-assessed trades. I could have put it on the horses instead and possibly made more; but of course I could have lost it all.

Risk/reward ratio is what this game is about IMO; and those who don't realise that invariably end up losing their shirts, and a lot more besides ;-)

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 10:09

well if you dont take risks then you dont reap the rewards!

[samg99] 15/12/2005 10:08

Well good luck, but to my mind that is gambling, pure and simple.

A fall as big as this doesn't often happen for absolutely no reason.

If it's (say) because of a huge sale, that wouldn't necessarily worry me too much. If it's cos the company is (say) running out of money, it certainly would!

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 10:04

It will be 40p odd before too long - some times these are marked down with no reason. I bought bgt at 54p when they were dropped 30p last week - i sold this week at 70p!

[samg99] 15/12/2005 10:02

I wouldn't buy until I knew what the hell was going on here, xxxadv!

[xxxadv] 15/12/2005 09:59

Rhomba - buy 3000, should be able to at .39p