Liontrust Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[1viky] 25/11/2024 13:32

UK stocks have incredible value. Market will soon discover this gold mine. Look at ITH, incredible value.

[barnes4] 25/11/2024 09:29

Some horses are never happy

I think a 16 percent dividend is very generous

[mister md] 25/11/2024 09:23

He's still waiting for his sub-400p.

[barnes4] 25/11/2024 09:21

Neigh where’s horse

[smithie6] 25/11/2024 08:10

ftse100...it did break down thru support (8200)

but you are right that it has bounced back, only within the last 48 trading hours,

I dont follow the ftse or own any ftse 100 shares so I had not noticed.

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ftse100 is now back in its trading range that it has been stuck in for the last 6 months. not very inspiring for holders of ftse100 shares.

[mister md] 24/11/2024 13:39

Smithie6 wrote FTSE 'has now broken "down" through support'

Nonsense, there was a re-test of 8000 level and has since sharply rebounded to 8260.

[smithie6] 24/11/2024 13:24

MisterMD wrote
"think FTSE may continue it's recent momentum"

...the FTSE100 chart clearly shows that the ftse was range bound for some months....trapped between an upper & lower level

it has now broken "down" through support

for a chartist that is not a good sign

(a good sign would have been it going up out of that range, it didn't)

(increasing the NI cost for companies employing workers has not gone down well with the business sector)

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I agree completely with one poster who opioned that the Govt is incompetent.
The approach for immigration is completely nuts. (& an ex boss in the immigration sector has said it can not work). (the only solution imo to stop economic migrants is to reduce or remove the attractions. So, reduce what they receive for free & make it harder for them to stay/work. But no political party seems to be willing to do that. (in Germany it is what they have started to do). (if you give economic migrants a hotel room & free meals & some money each week, & free medical care & free education &....no surprise they keep arriving from a poor life in Africa !!!).

The new Govt tax policy for farmers is imo insane. In time the Govt will cancel it.
The Govt plan to invest X billion £ in trapping CO2 (while also fund more incinerators, producing more CO2)....& to claim that spending money on trapping CO2 produces economic growth for the UK just shows that Labour do not understand at all the idea of business & growth.

[mister md] 24/11/2024 11:39

Ftse should be well over 10,000 in five years ;-)

[31337 c0d3r] 23/11/2024 19:26

I can't see the FTSE making a "recovery" for at least the next 5 years given current economic policies and the charlatans making them up as they go. The FTSE is probably where it is for good reason. When a country joins the EU, growth usually goes through the roof. One would expect something of the opposite to any country which leaves.

[rcturner2] 23/11/2024 16:17

Well their performance in H1 was revenue and gross profit down 20%, when the FTSE and other shares were doing well...

[mister md] 23/11/2024 15:58

Let's see how they perform next year before worrying about dividend next year. I think FTSE may continue it's recent momentum, there is only so far the over-bought Mag 7 can continue on up though ...

PS Plenty of companies pay part of dividend out of reserves in difficult years.

[rcturner2] 23/11/2024 15:35

Dr B, no one has to guess at these numbers it is all there in the accounts. They explain what they need to keep for regulatory reasons and the remainder is "surplus capital". As I explained in my post above the combined cost of the dividend plus the share buy back virtually wipes out the entirety of the surplus capital. This pretty much guarantees that they cannot pay an uncovered dividend next year.

[barnes4] 23/11/2024 15:26

This will get taken over imo

[dr biotech] 23/11/2024 15:11

Thats a lot of hot air there (1337) smithie.

Any company that pays a dividend worth Xmillion will be worth X million less as they have just transferred cash to shareholders. Hence why shares are knocked down by the xd amount.

Yes its important that what they pay is sustainable going forward if you are looking for long term income.

Your other post is just as bad. If you buy a fund there is a management fee that goes to the company running it. You funds are ring fenced, and if the management company went bankrupt it would be a pain as you could get locked in but the underlying value should be OK. So the companies cash is largely irrelevant. If I buy funds I look at the performance of that individual fund, I couldn't give a toss about how the management company has performed.

How much do you think a company should hold if the AUM are 30bn? Or 100bn?

[rcturner2] 23/11/2024 14:18

On the news of the dividend being held the share price dumped, which implies to me that the market participants love being bribed with their own money and don't seem to care that much about the longer term position or the competence of the management.

[barnes4] 23/11/2024 13:24

Hasn’t the market already priced this in?
8quid to 4quid

[smithie6] 23/11/2024 12:27

MisterMD wrote
"Declaring and paying dividends has nothing directly to do with current earnings per share (EPS)"

imo you are very wrong

if the company pays 72p/share for '24 then imo its cash pile will be depleted & imo there is a real % risk that it wont be able to do it again in '25.

So, the ability to pay, or not, a high divi % is a very real subject....& the reality has to be considered.
The regulations perhaps allow LIO to issue loan notes to obtain cash to pay a high divi if the co. does not have the cash....but doing that would not go down well with the mkt imo, nor would cutting the divi.

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The surplus cash number.
Imo one can NOT assume that all the surplus cash can be paid out as a divi.
This company has many big expenses such as lay off fees (~£4m in 1 year, if AUM were to fall faster then that cost would surely rise, a real cash cost), professional fees, internal re-organisation costs, costs to implement its new plan, losses from international expansion, etc).....& the risk of unknown costs. And people, funds putting their money in to LIO funds will look at the LIO accounts & will demand to see that the company holds a cushion of cash. So, the company must keep a 'cushion' of surplus cash.
The current cushion of surplus cash of £46m is not that big when compare with the AUM of ~£25.000m or the annual operating cost.

How much of a surplus cash cushion does the bod want to keep ?
£10m, £20m, £30m ?

It is a good question imo.

(because the dirs use spin in the accounts they have imo been careful "not" to reveal that information).
If it is £30m then imo after paying the final divi in Aug '25 then the divi must be reduced. And the mkt will think about it in advance.

[smithie6] 23/11/2024 12:19

looking at the last 2 posts

imo RCTurner is of course correct.

let me give an example to illustrate the point he made

imagine a company with shareholder assets of £100m and let us say that it pays out £50m as a divi (LIO pays out £46)...but states that its shareholder assets have reduced from £100m to £50m.

in that case shareholders are not actually any richer since before & after the divi they owned a fixed part of £100m & exactly the same after receiving the divi (a part of the £50m divi & a part of the £50m net assets, 50 + 50 = 100).
So ppl have to look at it in more detail before deciding if they have won or lost. (if the share price also falls by say 30% in the previous example, then the overall result is that the shareholder has lost even though he might hold a chunk of money via a high divi).

(there is usually little interest in grinding thru numbers during a weekend)

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..the full reality is of course more complicated....& needs more analysis & number crunching (including looking at TNAV etc)...& the overall NAV/share, TNAV/share, adding back dividends received.....

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apologies if my post appears patronising....that was not the intention

[mister md] 23/11/2024 07:07

'Declaring and paying dividends has nothing directly to do with current earnings per share (EPS). Companies can pay a dividend per share that exceeds its EPS. A company whose EPS is lower than its dividend in a current year may be coming off of a string of more profitable years, with higher EPS, from which it has set aside cash to pay future dividends.'

[rcturner2] 22/11/2024 16:55

I should also add that one thing I did not like is the destruction in the net asset figure. £180m at the end of H1 last year. £171m at the end of the full year and now £148m. In 12 months they have destroyed £32m of company assets, almost 20% of the asset base.

[rcturner2] 22/11/2024 16:51

For me the only figures of value are the reported figures. Adjusted figures are simply financial manipulation. They did eps of 14p in H1 and are paying 22p in dividend. I can't take the management seriously.

[smithie6] 22/11/2024 15:53

...I agree in part....& disagree in part !

....I mentioned that some of the items in the adj. profit number could be viewed as recurring costs & not one offs....& I talked about the lay off costs as an example since they repeated in '23 & '24...

Each person has to take their own view on each cost adjustment done in the calcs for adj. profit....& obtain their own value for adj. profit......& decide what might be the situation for the fin. year '25, which is not so easy. (will the AUM continue the slide downwards or go horizontal (which the mkt would surely like) or even rise (which the mkt would view very positively).

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I agree with you in part since I wrote that imo the annual divi has a high chance of being reduced from 72p to 44p (2 x H1).....due to availability of cash. But it is subjective & dependant on dirs & how much cash they want to hold as a buffer/safety.

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I haven't put much time in to looking at the cash & divi payment ability ....
...I might try to look at it a bit more this weekend.

[rcturner2] 22/11/2024 13:50

Smithie you can't use the adjusted figures.

Signifcant parts of the adjustments are real money and not "non cash".

[stun12] 22/11/2024 12:35

Nice to see some decent positive momentum to it. Still a long way to go until breakeven for me, but much better than it was.