Liontrust Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[1viky] 21/11/2024 14:07

After analyzing the results, the market will see their strong cash and capital position reinforced by the CEO and CFO buying more than 100 k shares between them at around 4. 52 plus share buyback plus confirming target of at LEAST 72 p dividend. It looks very good.

[1viky] 21/11/2024 13:56

Please look at item d under the Regulatory Capital position .Surplus capital after foreseeable dividends of 22 in Jan 25 and 50 p in Aug 25 is 45 .5 million after taking into account Regulatory capital requirement of 22.9 million. Looking good. I'm looking forward to share price rising and receiving the 72 p dividend.

[mister md] 21/11/2024 13:39

Smiffie6

I'm looking at a slowly-recovering FTSE over the next 12 months and the impact this will have on the likes of Liontrust.

[smithie6] 21/11/2024 13:30

Mister MD

What do you think the p/e is for this fin. year ?
and for the next fin. year ?

You think the p/e of 6.4 from the writer wealthoracle is correct or wrong ?

[mister md] 21/11/2024 13:16

"target a dividend of at least 72 pence per share"

"at least"

We shall see if things turn around quickly enough. I'm holding on to my shares. GLA.

[smithie6] 21/11/2024 13:13

1viky

Do you own a calculator ?

(perhaps not !)

=======
Did you read these H1 results ?

"The Directors intend to target a dividend of at least 72 pence per share for the year ending 31 March 2025"

....the dirs have today warned the mkt imo about the risk of a cut to the divi.

"intend to target"

- "intend"
- "target"
(at least 1 other poster has highlighted this wobbly text, the dirs are clearly not sure if the co. can afford it.
And definitely imo in the next fin. year it can't be afforded).

You refuse to read that text. Your choice.

=======

You agree that a fund manager is required to hold a specific level of regulatory cash ?
(ie "that" cash can "not" be paid out as a divi & must be withheld)
Or you didn't know that ?

[1viky] 21/11/2024 12:52

Those who are predicting the final dividend will be halved are living in LA LA land. They have more or less confirmed 50 p payment to the extent they can and announced buyback. This is looking very good.

[smithie6] 21/11/2024 12:43

this share has pros & cons.....as ppl have posted....

if the AUM can change direction & rise instead of continue to fall ( as it has continued to do in H1 & first weeks in H2 !) then it might turn around.

The dirs reducing the headcount in the previous year & in H1 & again in H2....does "not" infer that dirs expect a sudden marked change of direction of AUM.

The recent news on inflation & interest rates is not good for AUM & hence LIO.

The divi is not covered & the total divi for this fin. year will imo be cut (just use a calculator). While even after cutting the annual divi can still be quite a good % (~30p eps on 450p share price is 7% if all paid out, & the co. can do that since it holds a chunk of cash).

While on the plus side, highly respected company, good performance by its funds, big co. so it has critical mass, holds cash, the share price is low on the 1-3 year chart, the interim divi of 22p (5% !) is supportive to current share price.... (if the final divi is 22p that would make 44p for this year, = 10% !
.....if pay 44p next financial year, with eps at say 30p, then it would draw 14p out of the company & the co. has the cash to support that for X years.
(I haven't looked yet at the cashflow, some reduction in profit is due to amortisation....so the generation of cash is hopefully/probably higher than the eps number.

[smithie6] 21/11/2024 12:22

...your wife knows to look in the kitchen for the divis

....since the real name for the annual divi of ~70p is.....toast !!

;-)

[glavey] 21/11/2024 12:21

Given time, she may have more luck in finding them than she does the capital...

[this_is_me] 21/11/2024 12:16

Like the management I have stocked up on this stock (and stashed them safely away where the wife can't find the dividends!)

[smithie6] 21/11/2024 12:12

I had a look at that linked note.

low quality note imo, since it just copies text from the RNS without imo adding any real (imo) analysis

the number given for 'forward p/e' (( 6.4) by the writer at wealthoracle looks imo to be just a blatant lie.

That writer gives no calculation nor any information at all to justify his claimed p/e of 6.4.
Why not claim its 4.1 or 5.2 ?!!!

What p/e have people got pencilled in for LIO for this financial year ?

my guess is that 30p might be achievable either for the year or as 2 x H2 data. H1 eps was 13.7p.
Which gives a p/e of 15, very different than 6.4.

[glavey] 21/11/2024 12:09

" On 30 September 2024, our AuMA stood at £25,956 million "
AuMA as at 14 November 2024 were £25,219 million. "

-£737 million in 1,1/2 months


1/2 yr to 30 Sept. 2024:

" Flows
The net outflows over the Period were £2,067 million "

[martinmc123] 21/11/2024 11:23

2*

Liontrust Asset Management posted more soft underlying HY25 numbers this morning but interestingly the share price has bounced 8% suggesting that bad news may now all be “in the price” after the 80%+ correction from 2021 peaks. Gross Profit was down to £81.1 million from £98.6 million, adjusted profit before tax was £25.8 million down from £36.0 million in the prior year period. Performance is on track to roughly match FY23 numbers which were a fair way below record FY22 performance. However, the outlook for the sector...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/LIO/1001

[mister md] 21/11/2024 11:10

Does the down-ticker have a day off today ?

[mister md] 21/11/2024 11:09

"davethehorse - 19 Nov 2024 - 09:31:32 - 1243 of 1287
Down 3% 400p coming soon...."



What a difference a day (or two) makes, eh ?

[kernelthread] 21/11/2024 10:58

So that's £450k between them. Plus the CFO just put £227k in the pot. I guess that's a vote of confidence, although I wonder what % of their portfolios that represents.

[mister md] 21/11/2024 10:56

... and another - Vinay Abrol, Chief Financial Officer, purchased 50,000 shares.

[kernelthread] 21/11/2024 10:54

"Cost savings of around £4.5 million on an annualised basis to be implemented by the end of the current financial year."
"...implementation costs for the role reductions are anticipated to be around £4.0 million, which will be incurred in the second half of the current financial year and the first half of the next."

So it will be nearly a year before they actually start to save any costs.

Plus, regarding their screed about passive versus active management, yes there is a lot of concentration. But if (as they seem to expect) there is a large correction because of it, LIOs funds will suffer even greater outflows as everyone stampedes to pull their money out of the market regardless of what they are invested in.

[mister md] 21/11/2024 10:52

RNS - nice, they've purchased £450,000 worth of shares ...

'Liontrust announces that on 21 November 2024 it was notified that John Ions, Chief Executive Officer, purchased 60,000 ordinary shares of 1p each in the Company ("Shares") and his wife, Paige Ions, purchased 40,000 Shares. John Ions is a PDMR and Paige Ions is a PCA to Mr Ions.'

[barnes4] 21/11/2024 09:33

It will get taken out

[edmondj] 21/11/2024 09:21

Exactly, Mister MD

[edmondj] 21/11/2024 09:20

They could have halved the divi to 35p which would still imply a 7%+ yield at 450p in the market - than a yield flagging 'potentially unsustainable' and deliver medium-term value via buy-backs as judged prudent while the stock is low.

Instead they seem to be trying to defy the market - which is odd for investment managers - by sustaining the pay-out which pushes up the stock price in the very short term... yet they are also deploying buy-backs (or hope to).

[mister md] 21/11/2024 09:16

"We believe in active management and the long-term power of our investment processes. We have seen improving fund performance, developed very strong client relationships, broadened our client base and have a high-profile brand. We have invested in the business to support growth while also managing our current cost base. This gives me great confidence that we are well positioned for the future."

That's all great, but now let's see some director buys to support this great confidence, thanks !