Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[steve3sandal] 17/3/2020 09:36

Just sent this question to the Company Secretary.Good morning.Yesterday I read the NAV RNS stating this as £1032.....I thought great. Well done. Since the 5/3/20 NAV £1027.... the underlying holdings must have done well whilst everything else was crashing. I nearly topped up my holding given the discount to your stated NAV.However, it occurred to me that the RNS might actually be wrong. You/LT appear to revalue the c50% of LTI NAV only monthly, last RNS 5/3/20. If so you are very likely quoting what might be a very inaccurate LTI NAV. It usually hasn't mattered much as the LT valuation doesn't move much but in the past 2 weeks it occurs to me that the AUM might have changed significantly and this is a significant metric in the NAV calculation.I would be obliged for your comments regarding the accuracy/assumptions behind the RNS of 16/3/20. Also if you think it necessary to point this out to the stock exchange with data points and relevance.Kind regards

[purplepelmets] 17/3/2020 07:20

interested in hearing their reply Steve3

[steve3sandal] 17/3/2020 07:14

Whoops. If I am thinking this through correctly the 16/3/20 NAV reflects only the listed portfolio March plunge. The unlisted LT around 50% of NAV will be based on metrics around the end of February. So the NAV published yesterday is NOT something to rely on. LT May have lost AUM this month, obviously. I shall be contacting them to clarify if the weekly NAV is accurate and why they think it's acceptable to publish nonsense. Usually it's broadly accurate but usually we aren't all trying to stay safe for 3 months. I do speak as a shareholder.

[steve3sandal] 16/3/2020 20:27

I hope I’m not wrong to say well done cs2. You and Michael Lindsell today then. NAV at £1032 today is seriously impressive defensive in these markets.

[chrissmith2] 16/3/2020 20:06

Finally got in today. Nick Train is The Best

[rodfarmer] 14/3/2020 21:00

Thanks PurplePelmets㈳2;

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2020 11:23

Redrow is quality, but highly cyclical.

Expected LTI to be available sub £9 this week, I'm not including that
incredible plunge price low.

It's held at a higher level than I thought.

[purplepelmets] 14/3/2020 11:08

No Rod it is Barr. They had a great run but wheels came off recently, was it the anti-sugar crusade i forget now? I believe Nick had an emotional attachment to BAG, much like my good self with Redrow, unhealthy and loss inducing!

[jonwig] 14/3/2020 09:59

The most important thing about the L-T holding is that its value must be arrived at by an established process. (I'm sure that is described in the annual report, and is no doubt the standard private equity guidelines.)

It's also essential to realise that the accounts won't be signed off unless the auditor believes that they represent "a true and fair view" of the financial state of the company. So I'd be pretty sceptical of claims that the L-T stake has hidden value.

I do know of one company where the accounts mis-state the true value, yet it keeps to the rules: Mountview Estates. (It deals in property, and its houses are classed as "current assets" - ie. valued at lower of cost and market value, despite having been unofficially valued at double that.)

2018: The Audit Committee considered the valuation
methodology of the unquoted investment in LTL
representing 46% of net assets. During the financial
year ended 31 March 2018 the Board
appointed professional external advisors to
conduct a review of the valuation methodology. As
a result of this review, the Board agreed to
maintain the valuation methodology and hence the
valuation approach remains consistent with prior years.

See also p38 for the auditor's viewpoint.

[rodfarmer] 14/3/2020 08:37

This BAG company that is mentioned in this blog is some obscure outfit that LTI would never invest in. Do the posters mean BAT (British American Tobacco)? G is just below T on the QWERTY keyboard🤔

[chrissmith2] 13/3/2020 12:26

I am the bid at 988. Cannot believe value so easily available in a crisis

[chrissmith2] 12/3/2020 19:40

These guys track record is more than impressive, but can it hold in tough markets?
I am a buyer at asset value. Just need to know what that is ?

[essentialinvestor] 11/3/2020 06:21

Interesting, eh!.


Some of the bond proxy stocks were hit hard yesterday.

[steve3sandal] 10/3/2020 18:56

How on Earth was Ms Lickorish Director able to buy 12 shares at £400 each yesterday? I saw the 50odd sale at £400 yesterday which was mad but this smells. She also did well to buy more at £998. I'm not surprised the Directors are buying around NAV given they are signing off on it. Does anyone know if ordinary punters/non PDMR deals purchased anything at £400?

[spectoacc] 10/3/2020 15:54

Woody comparisons too extreme :) But yes, what worked so well on the way up, may be just as large a negative on the way down. And Train seems incapable of selling when the story has changed (BAG; PSON).

[nimbo1] 10/3/2020 15:43

NT could be the next niel Woodford. (hope not because I actually like NT and the companies he invests in!)

Certainly expect a stinking warning from Diageo soon...

[spectoacc] 10/3/2020 12:57

@newtona2 - thanks for your post, but I'm perfectly well aware of the value of the L-T business. Train says it's correctly valued, do you not trust him? If you don't, why on earth would you want to invest with him?

Sorry, not meaning to be facetious, but you'll find plenty of my arguments from the past few years as to why I think the value in the L-T business will never be realised, why it will cease to be worth as much with the demise of Lindsell and Train, why the (admittedly stunning) profit performance can as easily go into reverse.

[newtona2] 10/3/2020 12:33

SpectoAcc - they are not really trading at 80% above NAV, now or ever. They have a big unlisted element to the portfolio which therefore has no official NAV.

Now, one could ask why they do that, and I am sure they have a good answer, but to negate this constant misunderstanding I do wonder why they don’t just list the company, at the minimum percent of free float they are allowed to, and just get this problem gone.

[purplepelmets] 09/3/2020 11:00

Agreed and I still dont understand the whole 49% holding in unlisted Lindsell Train.

[spectoacc] 09/3/2020 09:39

Not totally nuts IMO - totally nuts was trading at an 80% premium to NAV :)

[purplepelmets] 09/3/2020 09:35

4 quid. Totally nuts

[spectoacc] 09/3/2020 09:03

Was a MKT order in the auction.

[newtona2] 09/3/2020 09:01

Not strange, insane. Clearly must be a panic sell at any price order that went badly wrong in a market with no buyers. I’m going to assume it is impossible to actually buy them at that price!