Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[newtona2] 09/3/2020 09:01

Not strange, insane. Clearly must be a panic sell at any price order that went badly wrong in a market with no buyers. I’m going to assume it is impossible to actually buy them at that price!

[wskill] 09/3/2020 08:57

strange trade 55 at £400 why would you sell a good sized lump in one go believe that LTI have greater value than £400 even if you count the cost of equity investments alone and say the fund management side has no value.

[essentialinvestor] 28/2/2020 17:29

W would give some nice trading opportunities.

[steve3sandal] 28/2/2020 17:25

Thanks for the link. I'm a bit disappointed and surprised that Fevertree passed their process. It had some good numbers but I've recently read (IC?) sales might be funded by extended terms and discounting. I don't think they are big enough to build the distribution infrastructure for their US, but what do I know. Glad my FGT is only 0.3%. PZC, I was rather more supportive of, Carex, Imperial Leather might be in the right place just now.U.K. feels oversold so V of U would be good, L not so pretty. W most likely IMO.

[essentialinvestor] 28/2/2020 16:53

If the bull market is over this may not be cheap imv, understatement.
A V shaped correction then upside imo.

[essentialinvestor] 28/2/2020 16:50

Bond proxy stocks took a hit today, unsurprisingly.
Hold a small amount of ULVR.

[spectoacc] 28/2/2020 16:32

Sorry, had to return - Train's big fanfare UK addition is Fevertree. Which sort of proves all my previous points ;)



Fad mixers, now past their sales growth peak in UK (but with US yet to peak in fairness), low barriers to entry, high p/e, previously boosted by the now ailing gin fad.

Train does very few trades, but buying a de minmus stake in the poor PZC, and now punting FEVR on the slide? He'd have been far, far better making his only trades being selling out of PSON & others.

Sorry, am going again. Good luck all - could even argue LTI down less than the market :)

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 16:31

Prada, eh. They arguably need a brand reboot.

Thought this might be available near £10 today, but not to be.

[panshanger1] 26/2/2020 17:49

They are on the record now with the Prada purchase

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2020 12:29

steve, I can't be sure this is not a new bear market, my best guess is there
will be a sharp equity bounce over the next few months. My main buys have been
Asian investment trusts, as expect those to bounce hardest.

[steve3sandal] 26/2/2020 12:20

Actually I think we all knew about Prada so scrub that. It might or it might not be Prada they can't say until they've built up their initial position.

[steve3sandal] 26/2/2020 11:57

Good luck with £1060. Hmm. I can now reveal the new share that Lindsell Train have bought, Prada. Not yet clear to me but most probably in the Global UT mandate and I'd hope in FGIT which I also own. Probably not held in LTIT as they've fixed capital and spent up.

[nimbo1] 26/2/2020 08:23

I was stopped out of my position - would definitely consider a re- entry

[mozy123] 20/2/2020 13:13

Heres the hold forever portfolios of mozy and specto.

Ticker Price Paid Price Now Capital Gain
Mozy DGE £34.40 £31.14 -9.48%
Mozy LSE £56.60 £84.98 50.14%
Mozy BARR £8.70 £5.95 -31.61%
Mozy ULVR £50.00 £45.63 -8.74%
0.08%
Specto IMB £20.00 £17.24 -13.80%
Specto Lloy £0.58 £0.58 -0.67%
Specto ITV £1.09 £1.33 22.16%
Specto NRR £1.71 £1.90 10.88%
4.64%

[mozy123] 20/2/2020 13:08

LTI the manager have has some headwinds. Some redeptions from portfolios and share price declines of its favourite cross fund top holdings.

With 21.47bn AUM at LTI - and the same assumptions about staff costs, tax etc I get the valuations to be
A 1.5% FUM (£321.7m)+
B Value of earnigns base (£565.8m)
/2

= £443.75m / 26660 shares = £16646.04ps (LTI holds 6450 shares)

On a pure AUM basis this would be 443.75 / 21.47bn = 2.07% so valuation the directors assume in the LTI IT NAV is trading inline with the Jupiter Deal.

However I have alwasy taken the view that the quality of LTI earnings are far higher than most asset managers.

The earnings of a company with 50% notional gross margin. (The GP could be as high as 95% should they wish it) is better than one with a margin of 45%

LTI IT owns a golden goose. So long as the world class companies the manager invests in dont go bankrupt.

The profitbality of the asset management industry is quite disgusting tbh :)

[steve3sandal] 19/2/2020 18:14

Someone is selling in size. Yesterday LRGS delayed reported Sale at £1075 and today at £1125. If anyone is tempted to add against that background you might get lucky with a daft Limit Order as Mr Market Maker plays both sides and might lay off some on a weak US opening, or a strong sterling bounce. Not advice. I know nothing. DYOR.

[wskill] 19/2/2020 17:45

It was a toss up for me either add more FGT or LTI after the take out of merian LT must be worth multiples of merian.So added here.

[essentialinvestor] 19/2/2020 17:37

Hopefully push closer towards £12 by Friday.

EU talks start tomorrow, might expect some more GBP weakness supporting
the large overseas earners that LTI hold?.

[nimbo1] 19/2/2020 14:50

thanks will do

[steve3sandal] 19/2/2020 13:31

Nimbo, if you haven’t already if you go back to Summer 19 on this thread riverman77, Mozy123 have both had a go at estimating the profitability for LT, the asset manager. The short story is that on July 19 half year and a flat H2, they should make at least £50m pre tax. LTI has 24.something% so what it’s worth looking back depends on any view you’d like to make. What it’s worth in future I don’t know....more I guess provided their wheels don’t come off.

Not long back French FM Almundi? bought the AUM and investment are of Spanish Sabatel TSB owner for about 1.8% AUM and similar size transaction but not researched why or if any good. A is an aggregator anyway, S perhaps wanted the capital back. Yesterday Legg Mason was bought for about 5% of AUM. Much much much bigger AUM and track record drives value. I’ve now read about Jupiter Merian. The PE house with major stakes in both looks to me to be the puppeteer and obviously not going to overpay away more than it had to, to shore up its own investments. I think that price was bottom book and reflects the LTI directors long held valuation here. What’s crucial now for them is to start to grow AUM again. Most Major holdings are all well off previous highs so that’s a start IMO. I’m keen to read the next Factsheet as it’s not every month your share price declines by 20%.

[jamielein] 19/2/2020 13:05

£420m for Merian's £22bn AUM, so 1.9% of AUM.

[nimbo1] 19/2/2020 13:00

do you know what the value of the Jupiter deal was?

Assume Lindsell Train more profitable as they seem to have about 7 employees

[essentialinvestor] 19/2/2020 12:24

The Jupiter deal highlighting potential value here?.

[nimbo1] 19/2/2020 09:25

well I've taken a position here @ nav for the medium term - went out of fashion quickly but could change rapidly as the printing press's keep churning.