Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[garycook] 01/11/2017 04:13

jrp,Fair play.Sold out of my SIPP holding in BKG at 3943p,and reduced my holding in my Trading account by a quarter at 3911p.Have 300 left I should have sold them too.Agree with you on the Director ongoing,s.Regarding LRE took a small profit at 753.25p of only 250 shares out of 3,250,leaving me 3,000.Surprised in the LRE performance from the 608p low.Perhaps take over speculation is back.Note BEZ,and HSX,have had a good run also to near 2017 highs with volume also.So something may happen soon.

[johnroger] 31/10/2017 14:39

The share price is not performing as though the company was going to cut or omit its special dividend payment.
Or could it be that a predator is waiting in the wings if the results disappoint?

[garycook] 31/10/2017 14:00

jrp,Keep up the good posting.Results on Thursday ! Any comments on BKG ?

[jrphoenixw2] 31/10/2017 13:57

Someone was buying 'in size' this morning, up to around 740p. Wonder if we'll see any RNSs issued in due course. At this rate might end today on double the daily avg volume...

Or as an alt, Odey is 4.23% short, maybe he doing some covering... we'll see!

[jrphoenixw2] 31/10/2017 08:39

Lively volume this morning. At 8.36am Vol/Avg 217k/449k
So roughly half the daily average volume in the first half hour. +1.24% off the back of that.

Add: 450k/449k at 9.20am Px +14.5p/+2% Nice start to the day!

[jrphoenixw2] 27/10/2017 18:03

+7.14% on the week 'despite Woodford'. It's a funny old market sometimes lol

[speedsgh] 26/10/2017 14:12

GC - I assume you mean c30p for the Special? This equates to c40 US cents. Well below recent years but perhaps unsurprising in view of the losses sustained from catastrophes in recent months...

special (Dec 16) - USD 0.75/60.4035p
special (Dec 15) - USD 0.95/63.1292p
special (Dec 14) - USD 1.20/76.4112p
special (Dec 13) - USD 0.45/27.54p
special (Dec 12) - USD 0.90/56.05p
special (Dec 11) - USD 0.80/51.65p
special (Jan 11) - USD 1.40/88.56p

[jrphoenixw2] 26/10/2017 14:04

The price action is interesting, Woodford chops his holding in half despite which it rallies nicely. [No idea re: the div, seem to be getting mixed signals].

This is the other figure I'll be watching, from their statement of 9-Oct: 'The aggregate estimated net ultimate losses for these events is expected to be in a range of $106 million to $212 million after anticipated recoveries from its outwards reinsurance programme and the impact of outwards and inwards reinstatement premiums.'

[garycook] 26/10/2017 12:24

Rumour of around a 30p Final.But do not quote me on that !

[billy5] 26/10/2017 12:05

Anybody heard any rumours regarding the divi this year. Do we anticipate a substantial cut or is it a non starter. Judging by the share price trading it would seem that there is plenty of optimism.

[jrphoenixw2] 26/10/2017 11:18

Nudging a 2-month high intra-day @ 698

[jrphoenixw2] 25/10/2017 18:32

Closing vol = 857,803 vs daily average of 428,608 = 200.14%
I'm going to be keeping an eye out for any RNSs tom/Friday...

p.s./add - just noticed an RNS from this pm.
Woodford has cut again from 7.68% to 4.57%
Traded 24th, notified today.
-3.11%*shares in issue of 200.427MM = -6.23MM

[jrphoenixw2] 25/10/2017 12:36

+2% on solid volume, 521k at the half-way point today vs 428k 30-day full daily average.
Coming up, Q3 results next Wednesday.

[jrphoenixw2] 25/10/2017 09:42

Apols, my mistake.

[effortless cool] 25/10/2017 09:24

It is still 30%.

[cwa1] 25/10/2017 09:04

Apparition1, must confess I hadn't heard it had dropped from 30% to 20% either, so would also welcome some clarification on that one.

Meanwhile this morning's news is that Bar Cap have upgraded:-

25 Oct 17 Barclays Capital Equal weight 691.75 - 687.00 Upgrades

.....was 631p target previously, so a decent upgrade in terms of target price at least.

[apparition1] 24/10/2017 17:27

When was the threshold reduced from 30% to 20% - I missed that one.

[jrphoenixw2] 24/10/2017 16:34

RNS out this PM:
Invesco have gone from 17% long to 18.31%, Traded 23/10, notified 24/10.

One more block-purchase like that and they're getting close to 'compulsory bid' territory, i.e. 18.3+1.3=19.6% vs threshold of 20%

Surprised the share hasn't more of a spring in it's step this pm...

[garycook] 20/10/2017 00:50

jrp,Yes interesting.Can only bode well with big buys like that.

[jrphoenixw2] 19/10/2017 18:17

Before I lose the intra-day detail of the price/volume candles I'd like to note down some unusual trading today.

Per data on Google/Finance:
'Vol/Avg. 2.86M/385,630' = ie 742%

With one 2-minute candle at 12.54hrs having a vol of 866k (@665.5p), another at 12.58hrs vol=865k (@667p) and then a final notable one at 15.52hrs of 1742k @ 667p. yet it had no visible immediate impact on the price. Despite which the greatest temporary spike perhaps caused was +0.3%, and the share closed down -0.22%.

866+865+1742=3.473M vs Google's total daily vol of 2.86M - Hmm!?

Edit/add: Doesn't seem to be an error on Google either, the LRE website shows vol @ '2,863,738

[jrphoenixw2] 17/10/2017 07:20

Per an RNS this morning, Woodford just halved his position selling around 7 million shares.

[speedsgh] 10/10/2017 08:19

Peel Hunt: Lancashire hurricane losses to result in divi cut -

Hurricane losses will put earnings at Lancashire (LRE) into the red this year and the reinsurer may be forced to cut its special dividend, according to Peel Hunt.

Analyst Andreas van Embden retained his ‘add’ recommendation and target price of 690p on the stock after the insurer said it expected losses from the hurricane season to be within $106 million (£80.6 million) and $212 million compared with Peel Hunt’s estimated top range of $203 million. The shares rose 1% to 669p yesterday.

‘This is a material loss, and will pull earnings into the red this year,’ he said. ‘However, Lancashire’s capital position is healthy and assuming a cut in the special dividend we believe it has the flexibility to expand exposures.

‘We continue to favour Lancashire among the Lloyd’s names and believe the company has the highest gearing to a rising rate environment in the US property catastrophe reinsurance market.’

[jrphoenixw2] 09/10/2017 09:19

Yep, just to clarify, I posted just the headline and first paragraph - for copyright reasons. I didn't post the direct link as it contained the 'cached session' looong URL and I suspect wouldn't work for others.
Looks like the stock rallied on the headline, but then pulled back again on the caveat.

[speedsgh] 09/10/2017 08:52

Note the caveat too. This is just an initial estimate based on limited data to date & ultimate losses may vary (either reduce or increase) materially from current estimates...

"Lancashire’s preliminary estimates for the loss events noted have been derived from a combination of market data and assumptions, a limited number of provisional loss advices, limited client loss data and modelled loss projections. As additional information emerges, the Company’s actual ultimate loss may vary, perhaps materially, from the preliminary estimates announced. The final settlement of all claims is likely to take place over a considerable period of time."